It's tight end weekend in the Stuckey Household.
Below, I share my two favorite tight ends to target in the prop market. For what it's worth, I also like Isaiah Likely in the Ravens-Bills game.
You can get on the Action App to read my full write-up for that game on Saturday night.
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props
Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
I like both the receiving yards and receptions prop for Dalton Schultz, who should run a route on almost every passing play — especially since he's fairly useless in pass protection.
Keep in mind the Texans also just placed backup tight end Cade Stover on IR. He had four catches last week. They also released Diontae Johnson.
In this particular matchup, the most pressing question is how will Houston move the ball on Kansas City? It has protection issues and a lack of weapons on the outside after losing Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs to season-ending injuries.
I don't think the Texans will have much success running the ball against a Kansas City defense that ranked ninth in Rush Defense DVOA and eighth in EPA per Rush allowed (removing Week 18) during the regular season. This will all be on C.J. Stroud trying to throw the ball on Kansas City's secondary.
One might be concerned that Houston will be stubborn and try to run Joe Mixon into walls, which will lead to known passing situations where Stroud will be under constant duress. However, Houston shifted its early down play calling late in the season.
If you remove garbage time, Houston's early down pass rate over the first 11 weeks sat at 52.7%. From Weeks 12-17 (removing Week 18), that increased significantly to 63.2% — the third-highest mark in the league over that span. It then jumped again last weekend in the Wild Card Round to an astronomically high 71%.
I expect Stroud to be throwing early and often, especially since the Texans will most likely be in a trailing game state throughout as 8.5-point underdogs.
So, who will get those targets? The obvious answer is Nico Collins, but the Chiefs know that too. Expect Trent McDuffie to get that assignment again with plenty of attention elsewhere.
The rest of the Houston wide receiver room leaves a lot to be desired, especially against man coverage, which Kansas City usually ups its rate of during the postseason. Robert Woods can no longer get any separation against man coverage and there's nobody else I really trust.
Plus, the Chiefs should get their second-best corner back from injury in Jaylen Watson, who is a major upgrade over the backups K.C. was forced to use in his absence.
That leaves Schultz almost by default.
Keep in mind that Stroud looked his way often in the second half against Kansas City in the first meeting after Dell went down with a gruesome injury. Schultz finished that game with five catches on eight targets for 45 yards.
That stat line shouldn't be too surprising considering the Chiefs struggled to defend tight ends all season. Excluding Week 18, a tight end eclipsed the 40-yard mark in 12 of 17 games against Kansas City. A tight end also caught at least four passes in 11 of 17.
On average, opposing tight ends caught six balls on 7.8 targets for 68.6 yards against the Chiefs. Schultz should get most of the looks at tight end.
And even if Houston does take the inefficient early run down route, Stroud will likely be forced to frequently check down under pressure, where Schultz could rack up easy catches and yards, especially since I assume Houston will need its backs to help in pass protection.
Lastly, I believe the Kansas City pass defense is a bit overrated. It benefited from an overwhelming number of key opponent injuries on the offensive side of the ball. To list a few examples:
- Chargers without Ladd McConkey in one matchup and a banged up Justin Herbert and offensive line in the other
- No Tee Higgins for Cincinnati
- Atlanta lost multiple starting offensive linemen in the first half
- The aforementioned Dell injury
- No David Njoku for Cleveland
- San Francisco played with basically three backup wide receivers
- Tampa Bay didn't have Chris Godwin or Mike Evans
My only fear is the Houston offense is so inefficient outdoors in the cold that there just aren't enough snaps in a blowout loss, but I'll take my chances.
Commanders vs. Lions Player Props
Sam LaPorta Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I prefer over 48.5 yards for Sam LaPorta since he's so explosive, but I don't mind some other looks in the prop market. He has gone over his current yardage and receptions number in four of his past five games.
Ultimately, I think we're getting a bit of a discount on the Detroit tight end since he had a fairly underwhelming start to the season. However, I don't think he was fully healthy — that has since changed, which we saw over the final month of the regular season.
In the first 11 games of the season, LaPorta had 31 catches on 44 targets for 391 yards. That's a single-game average of 2.8 catches on 4 targets for 35.5 yards, or a 17-game pace of about 48 catches for 600 yards.
Over the final five games of the season (he only played in 16), he had 29 catches on 39 targets for 335 yards. He almost matched the production of his first 11 games in less than half the action. That equates to a single-game average of 5.8 catches on 7.8 targets for 67 yards, or a 17-game pace of about 99 catches for 1,140 yards.
He's back.
Additionally, this is an ideal matchup for LaPorta, especially in the friendly confines of Ford Field.
The Commanders run a relatively high frequency of man coverage, which Jared Goff has destroyed all season, ranking No. 1 in EPA per drop back. LaPorta has dominated against man coverage even going back to his days at Iowa, when he averaged an absurd 2.72 yards per route run.
Washington has been dreadful defending tight ends, ranking 26th in DVOA in that department and third-worst defending the middle of the field. Those numbers would be even worse if it didn't get to face six backup quarterbacks, in addition to a number of backup tight ends.
The Commanders faced Arizona without Trey McBride, Philadelphia without Dallas Goedert and the Cowboys without Jake Ferguson. Even David Njoku got hurt during the game for the Browns in Washington.
For what it's worth, LaPorta had nine catches on 11 targets in each of his last two playoff games, compiling 65 and 97 yards in those contests. I think he has a third straight big day at the office.
My only concern would be the Lions can just run it down Washington's throat in a blowout, but I think the Commanders offense can keep this competitive enough, especially since Detroit struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
I'd play this over up to 49.5 yards. As of Friday night, the total is still 48.5 at bet365, but DraftKings has 49.5 if that's the book you can access.
