Just like the Wild Card Round when we finished in the green, I'm back with an NFL player prop for all four Divisional Round games.
We're on three unders and an over on Saturday night in Commanders vs. Lions, which makes sense given the massive total. Let's get into it!
NFL Player Props: Divisional Round
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Texans vs. Chiefs
Kareem Hunt Longest Rush Under 10.5 Yards (-122)
Kareem Hunt rushed for 10 or more yards on 5.5% of his carries this season, which was the lowest rate of all backs with 150+ carries.
Today is also going to present a tougher matchup for him. Hunt has run inside at the ninth-highest rate, which is the strength of this Texans run defense. Houston allowed the fewest rushing yards over expected on inside runs during the regular season.
Hunt cleared this in four of eight games when Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco was out, but he was averaging nearly 20 carries per game in that stretch. With Pacheco back, he has seen single-digit carries in three of five games and failed to have a rush of 11 or more yards in any of those.
Hunt's rush attempts prop is 8.5 as of publication. I'm projecting his median for his longest rush at nine yards, and those 1.5 yards are massive. I have him staying under this 62% of the time.
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Commanders vs. Lions
Dyami Brown Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Commanders have only trailed on 28% of their snaps this season, the sixth-lowest percentage in the NFL. However, as nearly double-digit 'dogs tonight against the Lions, they're expected to trail on about 54% of their snaps, which is a massive 27% jump.
Not only does that mean Jayden Daniels will probably have to drop back to pass at a much higher rate, but it also means the Commanders may use three-receiver sets at a much higher rate. They used three-receiver sets 10% more when they trailed during the season. So, that could lead to more snaps for Brown and more potential targets
It’s also a matchup that sets up nicely for Brown. The Lions use man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and his yards per route run jumps from 1.00 against zone to a team-leading 2.22 yards per route run against man. He’s also averaging 15.2 yards a catch against man coverage.
I'm projecting Brown's median closer to 37.5 yards with around a 57% chance to clear 33.5, but the way I set up his projection was very conservative. I think he has more upside than my projection suggests.
Given Brown's upside in this matchup, it’s worth sprinkling some on him to lead the game in receiving yds at +2500 at DraftKings.
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Rams vs. Eagles
Kamren Curl Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
In the first half of the season, Rams S Kamren Curl was playing in the box and closer to the line of scrimmage at high rate. He cleared this in four of seven games to open the season.
However, since Week 11, Curl has been playing as the primary deep safety and stayed under this in six of the last eight games.
The Eagles provide a ton of tackles to the defensive line/linebackers but are below average for CB/safeties due to being a very run-heavy team.
Also, the Rams scorekeeper is one of the most generous in the league in terms of awarding assists on tackles, while the Eagles scorekeeper is stingier and ranks in the bottom half. That's important here because Curl relies on a ton of assists, which means his tackle rate is generally more sensitive to where the game is being played.
With that, it's not too surprising to see that he’s stayed under this number in six of seven road games this year. The only road game he cleared was in Arizona, where the most generous scorekeeper in terms of dishing out tackle assists resides.
I'm projecting Curl closer to 4.9 with around a 62% chance to stay under.
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Ravens vs. Bills
Mack Hollins Under 1.5 Receptions (-115)
Last week was just the second game since the Bills acquired Amari Cooper that they had their full complement of pass-catchers healthy.
Hollins' playing time took a big hit as his routes run rate was 20% lower than his season average, and I expect his playing time to stay in that range here.
Hollins' 12% target rate is the lowest in the Bills' receivers room. and I’m only projecting him to get around two targets in this game.
Generally, Hollins sees low-percentage targets downfield and his average depth of target has been 13 yards downfield. Since the Ravens started using Kyle Hamilton more as deep safety in Week 11, their pass defense has been much better, only allowing a 38% completion percentage on targets to wide receivers that were 13 or more yards down the field.
I'm projecting Hollins with around a 60% chance to stay under 1.5 receptions.
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