NFL Player Props: Expert Picks | Week 15
RB Chris Rodriguez
Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Commnanders have ruled out starting RB Brian Robinson due to a hamstring injury. While Antonio Gibson will replace him as the starter, I expect Chris Rodriguez to still mix in quite a bit, especially on early downs.
Rodriguez is a sixth-round rookie who was handpicked by Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and has been productive in the limited playing time he’s had this year. He’s averaging 3.3 yards after contact, which ranks 12th out of 70 qualified RBs.
The Rams defense is allowing an average of two yards before contact on RB runs this season, which is the fifth highest in the NFL. On runs where Rodriquez has seen two or more yards before contact, he’s averaging 8.1 yards per carry, which ranks 16th among 70 RBs.
Rodriguez might not need to see too many carries to clear this number but considering the Commanders are coming out of the bye and their season is pretty much over, it would make sense to get the rookie some extra work. He’s cleared this number in each of the last three games, all of which the Commanders lost by at least and Brian Robinson was playing.
I was expecting this number to be in the high 20s and give him about a 63% chance to clear 20.5.
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TE Cole Kmet
Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
We should see rain and wind play a factor in this game, and the Bears will likely be more run-heavy as a result.
Browns have allowed the lowest schedule adjusted yards per game to TEs. They also use man coverage at one of the highest rates. Kmet has seen his production dip against man, going from 1.7 yards per route run against zone down to 0.95.
I'm projecting him closer to 31.5 yards with a 60% chance to stay under this.
