Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
Each week, I’ll go through every NFL game on the Sunday afternoon slate to identify the players you should consider betting in the ATD market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for NFL Week 4
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Broncos vs. Jets
The Javonte Williams (+250) era in Denver might be over before it truly started. He only saw five carries in Week 3, which was discouraging considering it was a positive game script for the Broncos, who led by 10+ points from the end of the first quarter onward vs the Buccaneers. RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin has looked to be the more explosive of the two and I prefer him at +600. Even RB3 Tyler Badie had some impressive runs in the fourth quarter that made Williams look slow.
Outside of Williams having a few more red-zone carries than McLaughlin, their stats are nearly the same, but the RB1 looks to be falling out of favor with the Broncos coaching staff. I still don’t love QB Bo Nix for passing touchdowns at this stage, so I’d rather swing on McLaughlin to keep ascending in the Broncos backfield.
Alright, we get it. Aaron Rodgers likes WR Allen Lazard. The former Packers duo’s connection lives on in New York. With three touchdowns (scored in two of the Jets' three games), it’s hard to overlook Lazard here.
While I expect Jets WR Garrett Wilson (+150) to still be heavily targeted, he’s likely going to be shadowed by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain, who has held the opposing WR1 in check in all three games with DK Metcalf, George Pickens and Mike Evans combining for only seven catches and 77 yards. As long as Lazard remains WR2 and his odds are above +300, we need to keep betting him to score with Rodgers at QB.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Jaleel McLaughlin +600 | Allen Lazard +340
Bengals vs. Panthers
To everyone who got on WR Ja’Marr Chase last week, congrats! It was an ideal matchup and he exploited the Commanders’ weak man coverage.
This week against the Panthers, the Bengals will see a lot more zone as Carolina has used it at a top-10 rate through three weeks. Chase thrives against zone, as well, but so does WR2 Tee Higgins, who I like this week at +200. Higgins came back in Week 3 and while he didn’t score a touchdown, he did play 90% of snaps and saw two red-zone targets. The Panthers also rank 28th in DVOA against opposing WR2 compared to seventh against WR1s, who generally match up with CB Jaycee Horn.
Another week with Andy Dalton at QB means Panthers pass-catchers are now live. WR Diontae Johnson got on the board finally and his odds have plummeted from +360 to +190. I do think he’ll be a decent option but if all boats are floating with the presence of Dalton, let’s take the Panthers starting TE Tommy Tremble at +480.
Tremble reasserted himself by playing 78% of snaps in Week 3 and saw four targets. He could be a big-bodied red-zone threat like he was last season, when he caught each of his three touchdowns within five yards or fewer of the end zone.
Verdict: Tee Higgins +200 | Tommy Tremble +480
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
This game has a total of 44 and while I do think a few touchdowns will be scored, I don’t love the potential scoring in this one.
The Eagles just came off shutting down the red-hot Saints in Week 3 and held the Falcons to only 15 points before coughing up a late touchdown in Week 2. This worries me about going far down the list for long shots if scoring will be at a premium.
I try not to go full chalk for these game previews, but it’s really hard to overlook QB Jalen Hurts at +130 and Mike Evans at +150.
Hurts still has 10 red-zone carries through three games and was running all over the place in Week 3. Now, he’s facing a Bucs team that is without its best run defender in DT Vita Vea and just gave up two rushing touchdowns last week, including one to QB Bo Nix. For reference, Hurts faced the Bucs twice last season and his odds were +100 in Week 3 and +110 in the Wild Card game.
I won’t say much about Evans, but he hasn’t scored in two weeks and the Eagles have given up five touchdowns to wide receivers this season. His highest touchdown odds of the season were +130 in Week 1, a game he scored twice. Don’t overthink it.
Verdict: Jalen Hurts +125 | Mike Evans +150
Rams vs. Bears
I tried to be cool and hip with taking Rams RB2 Blake Corum last week at +1200, and he went on to get zero snaps on offense. Cool! This is Kyren Williams’ backfield until further notice so unless you want to bet on him at -110, we’ll need to look elsewhere.
Unfortunately, this means to get anything resembling value, you’d need to bet on someone like TE Colby Parkinson at +360. Parkinson is playing more than 90% of snaps and is the only Rams tight end to see a red-zone target. I don’t love it so if Parkinson doesn’t shake your tree, keep it moving.
Even if the Bears passing game has been abysmal, it was still nice to see Cole Kmet reassert himself as TE1 in Chicago. Sure, it was a garbage-time touchdown last week, but what was encouraging for Kmet was the targets (11) and snaps played (81%). His role seems to be solidified with the offense and with the Rams ranking last in DVOA against tight ends through three weeks, Kmet is who I like at +333.
Verdict: Lean to Colby Parkinson +360 | Cole Kmet +333
Saints vs. Falcons
If we’re getting zone defense at a top-seven rate like the Falcons play, then we keep going back to WR2 Rashid Shaheed at +260. The speedster has scored both of his touchdowns this season on long bombs from QB Derek Carr against zone coverages. If cornerback A.J. Terrell lines up across WR1 Chris Olave (+190) often, Shaheed should get extra chances to take it to the house.
We still haven’t fully seen what the Falcons offense can do. QB Kirk Cousins is averaging only 208 passing yards per game after averaging at least 260 per game over the last three seasons with the Vikings. I expect those passing numbers to get better as the season goes along.
One player who will be a big part of that is WR Drake London at +190. The third-year wide receiver has six red-zone targets through three games, and Cousins is the best QB he's played with in the NFL. You could talk me into WR Darnell Mooney (+270) or WR Ray-Ray McLeod (+440), but London is Cousins’ new Justin Jefferson.
Verdict: Rashid Shaheed +250 | Drake London +190
Jaguars vs. Texans
Last week's game against the Bills was supposed to be the Jaguars' kitchen-sink game, but their offense looked like it belonged in an outhouse. Jacksonville has only scored 40 points in its first three games, but it can only go up from here.
I have my sights set on rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. again at +260. He saw nine targets last week and has the highest target share and highest yards per route run against zone coverage, which is what the Texans play at a top-10 rate.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud tends to struggle with his accuracy when facing man coverage in his career while almost all his WRs metrics see huge boosts against zone. WR Nico Collins, by default, has to be considered when betting touchdowns in this game because he’s crushed man coverage this season and graded well last year. Coupled with the Jags missing their top cornerback in Tyson Campbell, who’s now on IR, Collins is the guy.
Verdict: Brian Thomas Jr. +260 | Nico Collins +125
Vikings vs. Packers
I’ve recommended WR Jalen Nailor each of the last two weeks and while he’s scored, he’s only seen nine targets through three games and has three touchdowns. That isn’t sustainable.
Now, WR Jordan Addison is expected back which makes Nailor’s +460 odds have a bit more appeal, but I’d avoid either until we know how fresh Addison is in Week 4.
My gut tells me to keep firing on Vikings WR Justin Jefferson at +120. Outside of the long catch in Week 1 by Eagles WR A.J. Brown, though, WR1s haven't done much against the Packers. If we’re playing low odds, I’d rather keep firing on RB Aaron Jones in a revenge spot at +135. He’s the only Vikings RB with carries inside the 5-yard line and his ability to catch passes (12 catches in three games) could throw Green Bay off.
On the other side, all the value in this game is on Packers pass-catchers. The Vikings have yet to allow a wide receiver to score a touchdown through three games but that changes this week. Minnesota actually ranks in the bottom five of the NFL in targets, catches and yards allowed to wideouts. That kind of volume isn’t sustainable to keep opposing receivers out of the end zone, so I’ll ride with WR Romeo Doubs to get his first touchdown in 2024 since he’s historically fared better against zone coverage, which the Vikings play at a top-six rate.
Verdict: Aaron Jones +135 | Romeo Doubs +270
Steelers vs. Colts
After finally hitting QB Justin Fields last week, I’m finally open to looking at Steelers pass-catchers. WR George Pickens looks primed to get his first touchdown of the year. The Colts rank 25th in defensive DVOA to opposing WR1s through three games and four touchdowns to WRs, which ranks in the bottom five in the NFL. The Fields-Pickens connection will come through this week.
It’s hard to really gauge the Colts passing game through three weeks because QB Anthony Richardson can show flashes of brilliance and then ineptitude on the same drive. His saving grace is an O-line that grades well on passing downs and will at least give him time to make a throw. I fully expect Richardson (+150) and RB Jonathan Taylor (+100) to run a combined 30 times, but their touchdown odds are so steamed that I can’t get behind it.
I passed on Colts pass catchers last week but am intrigued by WR Josh Downs at +550. The second-year WR made his debut in Week 3 and played 56% of snaps with the majority of passing downs in the slot. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. is one of the best corners in the game but mostly plays on the outside, which means he'll likely be matching up with WR1 Michael Pittman. If the Colts run game gets turned away in the red zone, I like Downs to get a few looks in the end zone.
Verdict: Josh Downs +550 | George Pickens +245
Patriots vs. 49ers
I was really hoping Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett would be benched this week for rookie QB Drake Maye. The passing upside alone would make it worth it, but we’re stuck with Brissett for now. That means we can expect more short throws and checkdowns to running backs.
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (+150) should be healthy for this one and with injuries to the Niners defensive piling up, he should be heavily involved if the Patriots get in the red zone. The 49ers also gave up three touchdowns to Rams RB Kyren Williams last week and are likely going to be without DT Javon Hargrave.
If we want to go Patriots dumpster-diving, let’s sprinkle on WR Demario Douglas at +550. He’s playing over 80% of snaps and saw nine targets last week. If the Niners play any man coverage in the red zone, Douglas should be the biggest beneficiary since he leads the Patriots in targets against man this season.
In Week 2, I went with 49ers TE George Kittle at +200 and it hit. In Week 3, I went with WR Jauan Jennings at +240 and it hit. How should I follow this up in Week 4? By passing altogether.
Oddsmakers have completely steamed the 49ers skill players because they project this to be a beatdown with San Francisco favored by 10.5 points. I’d rather fire on another long shot like RB2 Isaac Guerendo at +550. RB1 Jordan Mason will be heavily involved, but playing more than 80% of snaps isn’t sustainable. Also, with the news that injured RB Christian McCaffrey is expected to be out for much longer than anticipated, the Niners need to make sure they don't run Mason into the ground before the Week 9 bye.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Demario Douglas +550 | Sprinkle on Isaac Guerendo +550
Commanders vs. Cardinals
My initial leans for this game were running back Brian Robinson +235 and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. +140. They have since been steamed to +105 and +120, which is just below my comfort zone.
Let’s ride the hot hand with “Scary” Terry McLaurin at +200. He exploded last week for 100 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, and it’s not like the Cardinals secondary is scaring anyone. Arizona ranks 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass and 28th in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
For the Cardinals, Harrison or TE Trey McBride (+220) are who I'd gravitate toward, but the latter now is in concussion protocol and is likely to be out. The only Arizona player showing value according to Sean Koerner’s player prop projections entering this game is WR3 Greg Dortch at +280, but even that feels like a stretch considering we sprinkled him last week at +450 and he finished fourth in targets (six) for the Cardinals.
I get the Commanders pass defense is a dumpster fire, but that’s too much of an overcorrection for a receiver who might not play more than 60% of snaps.
Verdict: Terry McLaurin +200
Chiefs vs. Chargers
I'm going to keep it real simple with the Chiefs: Keep betting WR Rashee Rice at +160.
Rice currently has a 33% target share and a team-leading 16 targets against zone coverage. The Chargers defense will be without stud safety Derwin James and lead the NFL in zone-coverage rate. If you want to take Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, Travis Kelce at +180, he’s also done really well against zone in his career. If neither impresses you, could always take a flier on WR JuJu Smith-Schuster at +800. He played more snaps than Xavier Worthy or Justin Watson in Week 3 and caught a touchdown.
Things are starting to look very dire for the Chargers offense. QB Justin Herbert is expected to play through a high ankle sprain while his starting tackles are both expected to be out. My initial lean was to keep going back to RB J.K. Dobbins (+160) but the more you dive into his involvement, the more you realize his touchdowns were both on big plays and not methodical or ground-and-pound. He may still score but a hobbled QB, offensive line injuries and a potential negative game script make me want to get out of the Chargers touchdown business for this week.
Verdict: Rashee Rice +160 & Sprinkle on JuJu Smith-Schuster at +800 | Pass On Chargers
Browns vs. Raiders
Browns WR Amari Cooper had himself a day in Week 3 against the Giants and leads the team in target share against both man and zone coverages. The issue is we might be seeing just a flash in the pan because with Deshaun Watson, Cooper has been a rough bet for touchdowns. Watson has now played 15 games with the Browns, and Cooper only has scored in four of them. While Cooper is clearly the most talented WR on the roster, his output doesn’t justify +230.
I’d prefer to take a swing on WR3 Elijah Moore at +500. He's playing about 80% of snaps with 60% of those coming out of the slot. Well, the Raiders allowed touchdowns out of the slot to receivers Zay Flowers in Week 2 and Ladd McConkey in Week 1. Might as well take a swing on a long shot if the lead receiver doesn't look like the guy to bet.
The one thing about the Browns defense that we can depend on every week is we’ll see a healthy amount of man coverage. The Browns played the most man in the NFL last season and are ranked third so far this year. This bodes well for two Raiders: WR Davante Adams and WR Tre Tucker.
I'm leaning toward Tucker, especially if Adams is limited and/or QB Aidan O’Connell gets the start. Tucker and Adams are the only two Raiders to have a touchdown against man coverage this season, but Tucker is at +500 while Adams is +185. I’d rather bank on Tucker, who’s running a route on 93% of dropbacks and has a decent connection with O'Connell as he caught both of his touchdowns last year with him at QB.
Verdict: Elijah Moore +500 | Tre Tucker +450
