I'm kicking off Week 4 by going back to basics: betting an under.
My pick for this game is on the under, so it makes sense. I don't see a lot of reasons to expect a high-scoring Cowboys vs. Giants game tonight to kick off NFL Week 4.
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Cowboys vs. Giants Player Prop
Ezekiel Elliott has seen his usage rate decline every week this season. It's safe to say he’s well past his prime at this point in his career.
Rico Dowdle has been operating as the Cowboys' lead back, and we saw Deuce Vaughn get a rush attempt before Elliott last week. Elliott didn’t make his first appearance until the Cowboys' third drive.
Elliott is still Dallas' main goal-line and short yardage option, so any increase in usage that he sees tonight will be in those situations. Fortunately, those won't produce many yards.
The one silver lining for Elliott is that the Giants' run defense has been one of the worst in the league so far. I’m not so sure Elliott is the best-equipped Cowboys running back to benefit from that, though, since he runs inside at the fourth-highest rate in the league. On inside runs, the Giants have the second-highest stuff rate in the NFL but the third-highest yards after contact allowed per inside run. New York has a sort of boom-or-bust approach when it comes to defending the type of runs that Elliott gets.
Considering Elliott has one of the lowest yards after contact rates in the league (he’s yet to force a missed tackle!), he might play into the only decent thing about the Giants run defense.
If Elliott does slip by the Giants' aggressive run defense, it could be for a two-yard touchdown or something that wouldn’t be the end of the world for this prop.
I’m projecting him closer to 23.5 yards and a 64.5% chance to stay under 28.5 and a 62% chance to stay under 27.5.
