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The Commanders had the third-highest rate of going for two last year; they were also above league average in passing up field-goal opportunities.
The Cardinals have a bad defense, so teams score more touchdowns against them. Case in point: Teams attempted 6.6% fewer field goals per game against them than league average, instead kicking 34.8% more extra points per game than average. This trend should carry over into 2023 given the Cards will likely be tanking for draft position.
There’s a 60% chance of rain, which will hurt kicker accuracy in the event it gets wet.
I project a 63.8% chance of Slye staying under 7.5. I’d bet this to -150.
Last season, Titans kickers scored just 30.9% of their points. A team total of 19.5 against the Saints means they’d average 6.0 kicking points at that rate.
The Saints allowed 1.8% lower adjusted kicking points per game last year vs. league average.
I project under value on both extra points made and field goals made, so take the combo of both and play the under on kicking points.
I project a 58.2% chance of Folk staying under 6.5. I’d bet this to -125.
The Browns allowed field-goal attempts at a 5.4% higher rate than league average in 2022. As for the Bengals, they went for it on fourth down at the fourth-lowest rate.
McPherson has gone over this number in 24-of-39 (61.5%) career games.
Any potential rust from Joe Burrow due to his calf injury could slightly decrease Bengals TD chances and increase field goal chances.
I project a 52.4% chance of McPherson going over 1.5. I’d bet to +100.
