We have another Monday Night Football doubleheader with two games to enjoy. We’ve got a potential shootout with the Ravens at Buccaneers and an interesting matchup between the Chargers and Cardinals.
Let's take a look at my Monday Night Football props and my NFL props for Ravens vs. Bucs and Chargers vs. Cardinals.
Sam Farley's NFL Player Props
- Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+140, FanDuel)
- Zay Flowers Over 5.5 Receptions (+118, BetRivers)
- Baker Mayfield Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
- J.K. Dobbins Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
- J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown (-111, Caesars)
- Kyler Murray Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-113, FanDuel)
The arrival of Derrick Henry has turbocharged this Ravens offense. Henry has averaged over 100 yards and scored an incredible nine touchdowns through the first six games of the season. He’s been so dominant on the ground that we’ve only seen Lamar Jackson find the end zone twice, compared to his four scores at this stage last season.
Jackson is deadly with play action and still one of the most elusive players in the NFL when he uses his legs. The Bucs have had trouble stopping quarterbacks run this year, giving up the fifth-most rushing yards to the position and allowing both Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts to score. Could Jackson add his name to this list?
When you’re getting plus money on Zay Flowers’ reception line you have to take it. The wide receiver has been excellent this season and firmly locked himself in as the team’s top pass-catcher. We’ve seen a big season in the passing game from Lamar Jackson, who is averaging 254.8 passing yards per game — and it’s been Flowers who has benefited most.
Flowers has averaged eight targets per game, and despite not hauling them all in, there’s a lot of volume going his way. The Bucs aren’t great against the pass and have given up the fourth-highest passing yards per game, meaning plenty of chances for volume for Flowers.
The redemption arc for Baker Mayfield has been one of the most enjoyable storylines in the NFL in recent years, and this season we’ve seen that the former No. 1 overall pick can really sling it. He’s averaged 248.1 passing yards per game but has smashed the 300-yard mark twice in the past three weeks.
The Ravens defense is best in the NFL at stopping the run but that has opened them up to be taken advantage of by the pass. They’ve given up a huge 275.7 yards per game through the air and Mayfield has the potential to smash his total against this defense. The Bucs are at their best when he airs it out, even if it is risky, and with this game projecting to be a shootout, you’d be wise to take over 255.5 passing yards for Mayfield.
After an injury-hit couple of years in Baltimore, we’ve seen J.K. Dobbins reinvent himself in Los Angeles. With Jim Harbaugh’s love of the ground game, it was always going to be a good fit if Dobbins could stay healthy. Through five weeks, he’s arguably been a contender for Comeback Player of the Year.
Dobbins has averaged 87.6 rushing yards per game, finding the end zone on three occasions. That makes his total look hugely attractive, given that only three teams have given up more yardage on the ground per game than the Cardinals, who are allowing 153 rushing yards per game. A big evening could be coming for Dobbins.
We’ve going to double down on J.K. Dobbins here by backing the Chargers’ running back to score in his second straight game. We’ve already covered the Cardinals’ inability to stop the rush, but they haven't been great at stopping running backs in the passing game either.
The Cardinals have allowed six touchdowns to running backs through the opening six weeks of the season, and given the form that Dobbins is in, he has a very good chance to add to his collection on MNF.
The Chargers defense has gone under the radar somewhat this season. They’ve only played five times and you could argue the Chiefs are the only great offense they’ve faced, but they’ve still been excellent.
Los Angeles currently ranks third in defensive DVOA and has been efficient in every aspect. The Chargers have allowed just 192 passing yards per game, the eighth lowest average. Given what we’ve seen from Kyler Murray and his arm this season, I'd favor the under on his passing yard. He’s thrown for just 197.6 yards per game and has hit over 211.5 passing yards just twice. We could see another sub-200-yard game Monday, which would be his third in four weeks.
