Using Sean Koerner's projections on Action Labs, I entered Week 13 11-3 on my last 14 player-prop write-ups. I'm no data wiz like Sean, but I do know how to read. That's all you need to be able to do to thrive in the props market.
For the late slate of Week 13, here are two picks I've made and bet using Koerner's data.
Kenneth Walker
Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetRivers)
Walker has slowed down of late, with just 43 rushing yards over his last two games. Both of those were Seahawks losses, though, and his 10 and 14 carries in those matchups were the lowest since he took over as Seattle’s full-time starter.
The game script should be much different this week. Seattle is playing a Rams team that most won’t be able to recognize, with one key name missing for the sake of this bet.
The Los Angeles defense ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ Run DVOA, but that was with Aaron Donald. The future Hall of Fame defensive lineman is out this week — and probably longer — due to a high ankle sprain. It’s difficult to say one player changes the nature of an entire defense, but Donald is that crucial to this Rams unit.
Walker is projected for 77 yards by Action Labs, a number he cleared four times in five games between Weeks 5-9.
Seattle should be playing with a lead for most of this game against a John Wolford-led Rams offense, and I expect Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to use this as a chance to get Walker going again. His floor should be pretty low on this prop, so I’d play it up to 75.5.
Foster Moreau
Over 3.5 Receptions (+125, BetMGM)
Moreau is projected for 3.9 receptions, and we’re getting over 3.5 at +125 at BetMGM.
In the six games that Moreau has started this season for the Raiders, he has cleared this just once. In those games, though, he has gotten at least five targets four times. Last week, he saw seven looks against the Seahawks.
This season, the Chargers rank 26th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are still out, giving Moreau a path toward being potentially the Raiders’ No. 2 receiving target.
With the strong matchup, getting plus money on an over that he’s projected to hit is a no brainer.
