Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
Each week, I’ll go through every NFL game on the Sunday afternoon slate to identify the players you should consider betting in the ATD market and whether the odds are worth the investment.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Broncos vs. Buccaneers
If the Broncos are projected to keep this game close, it’s likely going to mean that QB Bo Nix will need to actually complete some passes in the red zone. If that’s the case, we need to go back to WR Courtland Sutton again at +350. I know it’s been brutal to watch but Nix has at least looked for him with two red-zone targets in each game.
I know a lot of my sharp coworkers are all over the Broncos this week to cover the spread. However, many aren’t mentioning how they feel about the total which is around 41.5 as of Friday night, which implies that this could be a defensive battle.
Sportsbooks are clearly still on board with Bucs WR Mike Evans for a bounce-back game in Week 3 after WR2 Chris Godwin (two touchdowns, seven catches, 118 yards) did most of the heavy lifting against the Lions. Godwin had odds at +240 last week and is now down to +160 in Week 3.
With Evans expected to be shadowed by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain, let’s go with WR3 Jalen McMillan instead at +420. The rookie has played more snaps than Evans or Godwin through two weeks and caught a touchdown in Week 1. Sean Koerner’s projections on Action Pro have McMillan at a 4.5% edge to score an ATD in Week 3.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +340 | Jalen McMillan +440
Texans vs. Vikings
I don’t pray much but, God, if you’re listening, please let this game have some explosive scoring. Both teams should feature a pass-heavy game plan on offense with quarterbacks who have no issue throwing it down the field. However, the total is down to 46, so we’ll be careful about who we pick from this game.
If I’m betting on a Texans player, my gut tells me to keep betting on WR Tank Dell at +200, but my sights are set on Dalton Schultz at +330. Schultz hasn’t been used much through two games but remains a huge end-zone target for C.J. Stroud. TE George Kittle was very effective in Week 2 against the Vikings with seven catches and a touchdown. The Vikings are also one of six NFL teams that have yet to allow a touchdown to a WR in 2024.
As for the Vikings, my initial lean was going to be WR Jordan Addison but he’s been ruled out. WR3 Jalen Nailor has caught a touchdown in each game this season and while I think he could be worth a look, he’s only seen five total targets with two going for touchdowns. That’s not sustainable. Instead, it’s another week where you “have” to take WR Justin Jefferson at +130. He’s matchup proof, he’s scored both weeks and will likely see 10 or more targets. Anything over +110 is worth it.
Verdict: Dalton Schultz +330 | Justin Jefferson +130
Chargers vs. Steelers
Obviously, I trust in QB Justin Herbert and coach Jim Harbaugh to game plan an edge. If Herbert is out, though, I want no part of Chargers backup Easton Stick. He threw for three touchdowns in his debut last season before fizzling out in his final three games. There’s no clear favorite in the wide receivers room or for tight ends when it comes to touchdown scorers since the Chargers spread it out so much.
By default, take RB J.K. Dobbins at +150. He scored in Week 1 and Week 2 as the clear bell cow back over RB2 Gus Edwards. Let’s just watch Dobbins continue to show the marvels of modern medicine.
I’m probably going to be cursing myself for taking this bet again, but I have to keep going back to QB Justin Fields at +250. He’s run the ball 22 times through two games and only Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels have more scrambles on intended pass plays, with Jackson at 11 and Daniels at nine. When Fields is pressured, he takes off. It’s in his DNA. With how strong the Chargers pass defense has been through two games (164 passing yards and only one passing touchdown allowed), I’m not going anywhere near Steelers pass catchers in this one.
Something has to give here for the Steelers because their pass defense has been lights out through two games. Sure, they gave up the touchdown to Kyle Pitts in Week 1, but Kirk Cousins and Bo Nix couldn’t get anything going on this defense.
Verdict: J.K. Dobbins +160 | Justin Fields +250
Eagles vs. Saints
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley may be the bell cow in this offense, but let’s not get carried away about who the Eagles' main goal-line back is: QB Jalen Hurts. He has 26 carries through two games and scored a tush-push touchdown in Week 2 against the Falcons. He was making plays with his legs all game, and I expect that to continue against an aggressive Saints secondary that will try to make Hurts throw. Barkley may lead the NFL with 13 red-zone touches, but nine of those were from Week 1. At plus-money, I’m going to continue to back Hurts given how steamed the rest of the Eagles touchdown scorers are.
My love affair with Saints WR Rashid Shaheed unfortunately ends this week since he’s +175 to score after having odds over +300 in Weeks 1 and 2. That’s why I’ve pivoted to WR Chris Olave, who has nearly identical stats to Shaheed when facing zone coverage. The big difference is that Shaheed caught a touchdown in Week 1 against a napping Panthers zone defense.
Verdict: Jalen Hurts +115 | Chris Olave +160
Packers vs. Titans
After watching Packers QB Malik Willis finally complete a touchdown pass for the first time in his career, there seems to be optimism for Packers pass-catchers because he completed 12 of 14 passes. Well, if Jayden Reed only saw two targets and WR Christian Watson didn’t see any, I’m not sure I’d call that a passing renaissance. The Packers ran it 53 times in Week 2 and bettors should expect more of the same.
That’s why RB Josh Jacobs has minus odds to score. Head coach Matt LaFleur has made it quite clear that Willis will be doing very little throwing if he can help it. If you wanted to sprinkle on Willis to score at +333 for a “revenge game” angle against the team that drafted him, I could get on board with that, too. Otherwise, I’d continue to avoid touchdown props for the Packers until QB Jordan Love is back.
I wanted to bet Titans receiver Calvin Ridley last week but got scared off by the Jets ability in coverage. That didn’t even matter in Week 2 as Ridley was used on a jet sweep to score and then caught a bomb in traffic to get his second score. I get the Packers secondary has improved and you know QB Will Levis will likely have 1-2 brain farts in the form of turnovers. Levis can still throw the deep ball and that’s where Ridley shines. If Ridley is over +200, I think we need to keep going back to him.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Malik Willis +333 | Calvin Ridley +260
Giants vs. Browns
I have a hard time accepting that the Giants and Daniel Jones will be just as effective throwing the ball in Week 3 as they were in Week 2 against the Commanders. Jones had a peach of a matchup last week and while he was able to get two passing touchdowns, he again struggled with accuracy and had another game at less than 60% completions.
My first instinct here was to keep riding Malik Nabers at +240 and Wan’Dale Robinson at +500. Both scored last week and the Browns play man coverage at a top-five rate, and both guys are the only two Giants to see a target against man coverage and also have a touchdown. Given the talent discrepancy, I’d opt for Nabers at +240 but taking a swing on Robinson again at +500 is worth strong consideration.
Whenever I’m looking at the Browns for touchdown scorers, my first instinct is to immediately look at the RB2 on the depth chart, which is RB D’onta Foreman. The RB2 out-carried presumed RB1 Jerome Ford 14-7 in Week 2 and saw two red-zone carries against the Jags, but QB Deshaun Watson eventually punched it in for the score. Last year, I would typically play former RB2 Kareem Hunt over Ford or Chubb, so Foreman checks the boxes at +195.
Verdict: Malik Nabers +240 | D’Onta Foreman +175
Bears vs. Colts
Bears QB Caleb Williams was a “chosen one” but hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass through two games. If Keenan Allen was playing, he’s who I’d bet because of his prowess against zone coverage since the Colts play that coverage at a top-10 rate. He saw 11 targets in Week 1 with two looks in the red zone.
I’m starting to legit feel bad for Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. The man plays close to 90% of snaps every game, but he’s had some of the worst QB luck in his career. Now, with QB Anthony Richardson, Pittman has to deal with a passer who's only completing 55% of his throws in six career games. This doesn’t look like it will get better but if you believe in Richardson, then Pittman is a decent buy-low candidate at +270.
Still, it’s hard to feel great about any Colts pass-catcher. Even WR2 Alec Pierce is getting little respect from oddsmakers as he’s caught a touchdown in both games and still has odds at +350. That should tell all you need to know about the Colts offense.
Overall, I’d just pass on this game altogether with Allen out for the Bears.
Verdict: Pass
Dolphins vs. Seahawks
I don’t want to bury QB Skylar Thompson or his chances to be a full-time starter in the NFL. In his brief time starting games, though, he has looked rough. In eight appearances, he’s completed just 57% of his passes and has only two touchdown passes. Funnily enough, both went to TE Mike Gesicki. If you want to continue the tight end trend, love the look with Jonnu Smith at +750 if you want a long shot.
My main pick, though: As long as Tyreek Hill is healthy, you take him when he’s +190 with any QB. I fully expect head coach Mike McDaniel to scheme up at least two deep shots to Hill in an attempt to catch a defense napping. Even with two-high-safety taking over the league, Hill’s speed can bust that coverage.
I know it’s only two games, but the Dolphins defense has been getting crushed by running backs, especially ones that catch passes. RB Travis Etienne had a touchdown and should’ve scored a second in Week 1 before fumbling at the 1-yard line, while James Cook ran wild and scored three times in Week 2. Sportsbooks also saw those games, which is why running back Zach Charbonnet is listed at minus odds across the board with Kenneth Walker listed as doubtful.
For the Seahawks, we need to hop back on the train with WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +195. WR DK Metcalf popped up on the injury report with a hand injury and could see plenty of Jalen Ramsey in coverage. WR2 Tyler Lockett is older now and his target share continues to drop as Smith-Njigba continues growing his role. QB Geno Smith targeted 11 times in Week 2. Feed JSN!
Verdict: Tyreek Hill +190 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba +195
Panthers vs. Raiders
The natural thought with QB Andy Dalton coming in to replace Bryce Young is, “Oh, the Panthers are going to air it out down the field now,” which is fine, I guess. I still find it odd that sportsbooks are hanging nearly the same touchdown odds for WR Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, both of whom are at +300 or better.
In this instance, I’d prefer to bank on my old friend TE Tommy Tremble at +950, who has seen his odds increase in each game (+500 in Week 1). He’s back now from injury and was a proven red-zone target last season with three touchdowns inside the 5-yard line.
For Las Vegas, Brock Bowers +270. That’s the pick.
The Raiders rookie has been a matchup nightmare from his size and physicality with 17 targets through two games. Now, he gets a ripe matchup against the Panthers. Carolina has been playing zone at a top-seven rate through two games, and Bowers has smashed that coverage with a team-lead 11 targets against zone and averaging 4.01 yards per route run, which also leads the Raiders.
Pretty much all of the Raiders receivers could have a field day on this defense. If Bowers continues to look like Gronk and scores this week, we may never see his touchdown odds above +200 for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Tommy Tremble +900 | Brock Bowers +240
Ravens vs. Cowboys
It’s taking every fiber in my being to avoid betting TE Mark Andrews again at +230. He out-snapped and out-targeted TE Isaiah Likely in Week 2 and is seeing odds above +200 again, which is higher than any touchdown odds he had in 2023 (+165 in Week 2 against the Bengals). Still, I can’t overlook the emergence of WR Zay Flowers and how involved he is in the red zone. He should’ve had a touchdown in Week 1 and then caught one against the Raiders. His 22 targets are currently fourth in the NFL, with four of those coming in the red zone.
The Ravens defense is still quite good despite being 0-2. If Baltimore continues to play man coverage at a top-10 rate, though, then Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb is going to feast. Lamb led the NFL in touchdowns against man last year and has a ridiculous 52.4% target share against man through two games. It’s not sexy but if sportsbooks give me plus odds on Lamb and Brandin Cooks isn’t over +300, then it’s a pretty easy, albeit chalky, pick.
Verdict: Zay Flowers +195 | CeeDee Lamb +110 (bet if he’s plus money)
49ers vs. Rams
With a one-sided game expected, pretty much all of the top guys on the 49ers have steamed odds to score. You could talk me into TE George Kittle at +175 again, who caught a touchdown last week and should’ve had two, but now he’s on the injury report and may not play.
If the Rams have any sense, they’ll bracket WR Brandon Aiyuk and make WR Jauan Jennings try to beat them. Well, at +260, Jennings is the only 49ers player who I’d consider betting now and that doesn’t even feel great when he’s the No. 2 receiving option. If you want to pass on this game, I wouldn’t blame you.
What the hell am I supposed to do with the Rams? Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out and they’re facing a Niners defense that's likely out for blood after getting upset by the Vikings last week — but the 49ers also severely injured!
If QB Matthew Stafford can stay upright, he should be able to take a couple of cracks downfield to keep the Niners honest. I’d almost rather take backup RB Blake Corum to get his first touchdown at +1200. If this game turns into a blowout, could see the Rams giving less work to RB1 Kyren Williams and Corum sneaking one in for an already decided game in the second half.
Verdict: Jauan Jennings +260 | Sprinkle on Blake Corum at +1200
Lions vs. Cardinals
After allowing 20 touchdowns to tight ends over the last two seasons (ranked 31st), no tight end has really tested the Cardinals this year through two games. A reason why I’m worried about betting on Sam LaPorta here is all of his career touchdowns have been scored indoors. He had 10 touchdowns last season, nine coming at Ford Field and just one on the road against the Saints — in a dome.
You'll know about how QB Jared Goff is night and day when it’s indoors compared to outdoors for his numbers. I’m not saying Detroit won’t score but with five players with odds of less than +200, there’s not enough value to invest in a Lions player this week, even if I lean toward LaPorta at +155.
The Cardinals are the squad with the most value this week and while all the attention is rightfully going to Marvin Harrison Jr., I’m immediately plotting how I’m going to bet WR Michael Wilson and WR Greg Dortch.
The Lions secondary got abused last week by the Buccaneers and ranks in the bottom three in targets, catches and yards to WRs through two weeks. As of this writing, Sean Koerner has the biggest touchdown edge for Wilson (+450) and Dortch (+380) so splitting a unit amongst those two feels like the safest strategy for betting on Arizona.
Verdict: Lean to Sam LaPorta +155 | Michael Wilson +450 & Greg Dortch +380
