Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, highlights his favorite NFL player props at PrizePicks for Week 11 on the latest episode of the Fantasy Flex Podcast. PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator that offers a unique opportunity for action on props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Player Props
Bengals QB Joe Burrow Over 255.5 Pass Yards
Burrow has gone over this total in seven of nine games this season — and one of the two times he's gone under this total was when Tee Higgins was out.
The Raiders' 22nd-ranked pass defense in Football Outsiders' DVOA shouldn't pose a problem for Burrow. Plus, a short spread and a high over/under points toward a potential shootout, which would also favor this over.
Bears RB David Montgomery Over 49.5 Rush Yards
Montgomery saw 13 rush attempts in his Week 9 return from a knee injury that sidelined him for four games while Khalil Herbert saw only four. Now, coming off their Week 10 bye, Montgomery should be closer to 100%.
He's gone over this number in four of his five games this season. The only time he went under this number was in Justin Fields' debut, when the rookie threw for 68 (!) yards, so Monty should also benefit from Fields' improved play.
Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin Over 35.5 Rush Yards
Ever since Malcolm Brown suffered a quad injury in Week 7 that landed him on IR, Gaskin has seen 12+ carries in each game (three). He's cracked this number only once, but he's been averaging only 2.2 yards per carry, and I'm expecting his efficiency to improve against the Jets' 31st-ranked rush defense in DVOA.
The Dolphins are favored by 3.5 points, and with that positive game script, I'm projecting him for 14 carries.
Bengals WR Tyler Boyd Over 32.5 Rec Yards
Ja'Marr Chase has quickly emerged as one of the NFL's premier wide receivers, but he's been way less productive against zone, which the Raiders run at the sixth-highest rate in the league. And despite being the third wheel to Chase and Tee Higgins in this dynamic WR trio, Boyd offers a high floor.
This number is simply too low considering I'm projecting Boyd for 43.5 yards — 11 more than this prop.
Colts WR Michael Pittman Under 61.5 Rec Yards
Pittman draws a brutal matchup against the Bills, who have allowed only four WRs to clear 65+ yards this season. His high 76% catch rate is also due for regression — based on his 11.4 average depth of target (aDOT), we would expect a typical WR to average closer to a 63.5% catch rate
