Chris Raybon reveals his top three NFL props for Championship Sunday of the 2022 NFL playoffs, featuring Joe Burrow and Van Jefferson overs.
These picks are for props on PrizePicks, which is a daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — that offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more together.
NFL Player Props
Joe Burrow Over 280.5 Pass Yards
Burrow has gone over 280.5 yards in four of his last five, sailing over it against the Chiefs in Week 17 with a 446-yard performance. Kansas City plays man at the sixth-highest rate in the league, and Cincinnati is an NFL-best 11.4 yards per targeted pass attempt vs. man, so this is a favorable matchup for Burrow.
I'm projecting him for a mean of 291 and would play this over up to 286.5 yards.
Van Jefferson Over 28.5 Rec Yards
Despite being quiet in the postseason thus far, Jefferson's underlying usage has been excellent, as he ran a route on 86% of Stafford's dropbacks in the Wild Card Round and 95% in the Divisional Round. This has been the case all season, as Jefferson's median route participation percentage is 89%.
On top of that, the Rams will likely have to pass more than usual against a 49ers defense that is ranked No. 2 in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the run.
Jefferson has finished over 28.5 receiving yards in 14-of-19 (74%) games this season. I'm projecting him for a mean of 48 this Sunday, but given the variance of Jefferson being a high aDot receiver, I'd play this over up to 40.5 — he's had at least 41 receiving yards in 12-of-19 (63%) games this season.
Tyler Boyd Over 36.5 Rec Yards
Last week, Boyd ran a route on 96% of Bengals' dropbacks. While he has been over in exactly half of his games this season, he is averaging 48.3 receiving yards and has a median of four catches. Since he's averaging 12.4 yards per reception, his true median should be closer to his average of 48.
Then there's the Ja'Marr Chase factor: Chase went 11/266/3 in the first matchup against the Chiefs, which will likely try to take him away this time around. They were able to limit the Bills' No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs to three catches on seven yards last week, which resulted in Buffalo's No. 2 and No. 3 receivers going off — Gabriel Davis went off for 201 yards while Cole Beasley chipped in another 60.
I'm projecting a median of 51 yards for Boyd and I'd play this over up to 47.5 yards.
