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The Jaguars face a Falcons team that ranks 25th in neutral-script pace, meaning they'll get a tempo-down game against a run-heavy team. That means fewer drives for McManus to clear this prop.
In addition, the Jaguars opt to go for it on fourth down at a high rate. Last year, they ranked sixth in fourth-down attempt rate; this year, they rank fifth.
Matchup wise, the Falcons have allowed around league average field-goal volume since the start of last year, including just four field goals faced so far in 2023.
McManus has also been a below-average kicker every year of his career, in large part thanks to attempting many long field goals in the high altitude of the Rockies. However, he's still well below expectation when adjusting for conditions, and he has missed 2-of-5 attempts beyond 40 yards this year.
I have him projected to stay under this number 55.5% of the time, so I wouldn't bet this beyond -115.
The weather for this game is perfect, meaning Santos should get a boost in accuracy — a nice reprieve for him given he often has to kick in nasty Chicago conditions.
That helps when facing a Broncos defense that has been a sieve thus far in 2023. However, with Justin Fields' struggles, this may play more toward a game where the Bears get in scoring position several times, but fail to convert them into touchdowns, allowing Santos multiple FG opportunities.
Broncos opponents have attempted five field goals compared to 15 extra points. That's already 1.67 field-goal attempts per game, and if any of those touchdowns shift toward field goals, it's a solid bet at plus-money for Santos to have at least two attempts.
Having would-be touchdown drives end in field goals also fits nicely with the under, which our Luck Rankings suggest is likely by the -21.4 Luck Total.
I'm projecting Santos to go over this number 52.5% of the time, so while I wouldn't bet this below +120, there's still some solid value here.
