Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL player props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast each Friday with his co-host Chris Raybon.
PrizePicks is a daily fantasy operator that offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Player Props
Patriots QB Mac Jones Over 220.5 Pass Yards
Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson both went down with concussions in the Patriots' Week 9 win over the Panthers. With both running backs still looking questionable, Jones could be left without many options outside of throwing it. Add in that the Browns will create a pass-funnel game script by virtue of their 19th-ranked pass defense — compared to their fifth-ranked run defense — and this looks like an easy over for the rookie QB.
I liked Joe Burrow for this same prop against Cleveland last week and he sailed over it with ease. I’m projecting Jones closer to 240 passing yards.
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott Over 65.5 Rush Yards
I lost on this prop last week because I assumed the Cowboys would be playing with a lead for much of their game against the Broncos, but that turned out not to be the case. Elliott was kept to 51 rushing yards after injuring his knee — though he got carries late in the fourth quarter as Dallas tried to claw its way back, meaning the team can’t be too worried about his injury.
The Cowboys lost outright to Denver as 9.5-point favorites and currently sit as 8.5-point favorites over the Falcons (check real-time NFL odds here) — I think they easily bounce back here against Atlanta. The Falcons rank 27th against the run in DVOA and Elliott won’t even need to see a full workload or be at 100% to clear this. I’m projecting him closer to 70.5 rush yards.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Over 85.5 Rush Yards
Anytime the Colts face a bad defense, you should take Taylor’s over. It’s really that simple.
He put up 145 yards against the Texans at home, 172 yards against the Jets at home and gets the Jaguars at home this week. He’s only had all five starting offensive linemen healthy for two games now, making this an even easier pick. I’m projecting this closer to 92.5 rush yards.
Falcons WR Russell Gage Under 50.5 Receiving Yards
Gage has both a low aDot of 7.7 and low yards per catch at 9.9. I’m projecting him for 4.5 receptions in Week 10, meaning he can catch five passes and still go under this line.
I typically consider Gage a high-floor player, but he’s had two games this year where he has caught zero passes and has only gone over this twice. Both times he went over were games with positive game scripts, while both of his goose eggs were losses. As 9.5-point underdogs here, I wouldn’t expect that trend to change.
Kyle Pitts could also have a massive game here. He dropped a couple of passes last week that would have been big gains, likely allowing Gage to go off with seven catches for 64 yards. I’m projecting him closer to 43.5 receiving yards against the Cowboys this week.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Johnson has gone over this line in five of seven games and the Lions don’t have anyone who can stop him in this matchup. Plus Chase Claypool may not suit up, which would cause this line to go up if he’s out. Either way, this is a good bet to go over for a high-floor player. I’m projecting Johnson closer to 70.5 receiving yards here.
