NFL Player Props: Monday Night Football
My two NFL props for Monday Night Football feature players from both games on different sides of the ball. I have one bet for each game, so let's get into it.
Ramsey has only cleared this in one of the five games he’s played in this season. He had four in Week 9 against the Chiefs in the only time he's gone over.
Why is that the case? It's because teams rarely throw Ramsey's way and when they do, they typically don’t complete the pass. He's only allowing a reception for every 21 snaps he’s in coverage, which is the best rate in the league.
Ramsey isn't really involved in run defense, having only made one tackle on a run play all season.
Miami has allowed 20.5 completions per game with Ramsey back in action, and Will Levis’ completion prop is only 18.5. In theory, there will be two fewer potential tackle opportunities for Ramsey.
The risk here is Ramsey could face DeAndre Hopkins at a higher rate than expected. Typically, though, Ramsey isn’t going to be used to shadow any specific receiver. If anything, the Titans will just line Hopkins away from him and just target whatever pass catchers aren’t being guarded by Ramsey.
I'm projecting Ramsey closer to 2.6 tackles + assists with about a 68% chance he stays under 3.5.
Christian Watson is expected to miss tonight’s game with a hamstring injury. Wicks has typically operated as Watson’s direct backup this year, so I expect him to be a near 1-for-1 replacement for Watson tonight.
That means it’ll likely be Romeo Doubs and Wicks (not Jayden Reed) who are used the most in two-receiver sets. Reed is typically only in there for three-receiver sets since he’s the Packers' main slot WR. Also, the Packers use two-receiver sets less when they're playing with a lead so in a game that has them installed as six-point favorites, we could see more two-receiver sets than normal tonight.
We could see Wicks run a route on 70%+ of Jordan Love’s dropbacks tonight.
The Giants use man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and that's good news for this bet. Wicks has seen a higher target rate against man (25%) compared to zone (19%). Doubs, meanwhile, has seen his target rate go from 22% against zone to 11% against man. I’m expecting Wicks to see a pretty high target rate when in two-receiver sets lined up across from Doubs.
The Giants blitz at the second-highest rate, and Wicks’ target rate also goes up when Love is being blitzed.
I'm projecting Wicks' median closer to 41.5 with a 63% chance he clears 34.5.
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