Our staff of betting experts has you covered with NFL player props on Sunday.
We have two touchdown bets on wide receivers for this week, as well as four overs and a pair of unders. It seems like Wide Receivers Week here with six bets on that position for Sunday's slate of games.
Get our NFL predictions for Sunday afternoon's slate of games below.
NFL Player Props: Week 6 Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Jaguars vs. Bears Prop: Cairo Santos
Cairo Santos
Over 1.5 Field Goals (-125)
You know I love a good kicker prop.
The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking dead last in EPA against the pass. They don't get pressure on the quarterback, and they're mediocre against the run. Jacksonville has allowed 393 yards per game, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. The Bears should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field on Sunday morning.
However, Caleb Williams has struggled on the road and now has to play this game in London. I could see the offense not quite being as sharp when they get in the red zone. Cairo Santos is an accurate kicker (35-of-38 last year, 8-of-9 this year).
I'm betting that the Bears will settle for at least a couple of field goals in this game.
Pick: Cairo Santos Over 1.5 Field Goals (-125)
Commanders vs. Ravens Prediction: Zay Flowers Prop
Zay Flowers
Over 4.5 Receptions (-122)
FanDuel was way off on this line, but it has corrected a bit as of Friday. Almost every other sportsbook has the juice on the over around -150, so I'd still happily bet this.
Zay Flowers has had huge volume in this offense and gets a matchup against a Commanders defense that's been destroyed by WRs this season. Flowers has at least 10 targets in three of five games this season. His role has increased as he's been schemed into this offense a ton.
The total for this game is large at 51.5, and the Ravens' team total is massive. I have him projected for more than a reception over this number.
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-122)
Texans vs. Patriots: Hunter Henry Under
Hunter Henry
Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)
By Sam Farley
Only one team has given up fewer receptions to tight ends than the Texans, who offer a formidable matchup for Hunter Henry this week.
Henry has had 25 targets through five games but when you take into account that 12 came against the Seahawks, you can see the problem. Henry has barely been targeted and outside of that game has caught exactly two passes in each of his other four appearances this season.
Pick: Hunter Henry Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)
A.J. Brown Pick for Browns vs. Eagles
A.J. Brown
Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
A.J. Brown is expected to return this week after missing three games with a hamstring injury. Philadelphia is coming off its bye week, so I wouldn't expect any limitations for Brown.
Cleveland plays the most man coverage in the league, and that's great news for Brown and this Eagles offense. He was fourth in yards per route run, first in targets per route run and second in win rate (percentage of routes with positive separation score, according to Fantasy Points Data) against man coverage in 2023 (minimum 100 routes).
Jalen Hurts targeted his first read on 78.5% of his attempts against man coverage in 2023, well above his mark against zone (61%). Brown easily led the team with a first-read target rate of 36.6%. It was 36.8% in the only game he's played this season against the Packers.
Hurts is going to be hitting his primary read against this defense, and that should mean plenty of opportunities for Brown. Given his success against man coverage, this could be a big day for the Eagles' WR1.
Pick: A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Buccaneers vs. Saints Pick for Chris Olave
Chris Olave
Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It’s officially Spencer Rattler season. Or at least temporarily.
I’m actually higher on Rattler than most and even in his college days, he was not afraid to sling the ball around the field. It feels as though the sportsbooks are expecting a more conservative approach out of New Orleans in Rattler’s debut, but I’m not so sure. That's why I’m betting on Chris Olave here.
The way you want to attack the Buccaneers is through the air. Tampa Bay is 20th in DVOA against the pass, but that drops to 25th against opposing WR1s. I get the concern dropping off from Derek Carr to Rattler, but Olave had more than 80 receiving yards in three straight games before Week 6's Monday Night Football dud.
After being named starter, Rattler made it a point to emphasize the importance of targeting Olave. This could be a trailing game script — even better for Olave — but even then, I’d be shocked to not see 8-10 targets for him.
Then when you add in the fact that the Saints are dealing with a heavily-injured offensive line against a Bucs defense that’s top 10 in terms of rush DVOA, and it feels like the Saints will find themselves in passing-down situations early and often. Taysom Hill could very well miss his second straight week, too.
Dating back to last year, Olave has been over this 48.5 number in 8-of-12 (75%). Even with Rattler under center, I don’t expect his production to waver. Buy low on Olave after a dud last week against KC.
Pick: Chris Olave Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
George Pickens Prop for Steelers vs. Raiders
George Pickens
Anytime TD Scorer (+240)
George Pickens has been vocal this week about his lack of work this season, and I'm expecting the Steelers to get him more involved.
The Raiders have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and this game is being played in a dome, which should make this much easier for Pickens. He may not have a touchdown this season, but the volume has been great in the red zone (eight targets), accounting for 38% of the Steelers' red-zone targets.
Pickens is a threat to house a ball from anywhere on the field. Even if we don't expect an increase in volume, these odds are too high.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+240)
Chargers vs. Broncos Player Prop
Quentin Johnston
Under 2.5 Receptions (+120)
Quentin Johnston had been almost exclusively an outside receiver this season, which is a big problem against this Denver defense. Patrick Surtain and company have dominated outside receivers all season. The Broncos are allowing the lowest yards per reception and the fifth-lowest yards per target to players lined up out wide. Opponents seem to be aware of this, as Denver has seen the fourth-lowest target rate to outside receivers.
Johnston is running 91.5% of his routes out wide, with Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer handling the majority of the slot work. He got off to a strong start to the season but has posted just three receptions over the past two games. Johnston tied for second on the team in target share from Weeks 3-4 but at just 14.9%. Los Angeles has spread the ball around plenty so far. Palmer has also been in and out of the lineup but should be fully healthy after the bye week.
The Chargers are 3-point favorites, and we know they love to run the ball. They're one of two teams to have a higher run rate than pass rate this season. L.A. is third in the league in neutral run rate. Justin Herbert has averaged just 23 attempts in their two wins this year. If the Chargers control this game, the volume isn't going to be there for the passing game. When LA does throw, it won't often be in Johnston's direction.
Pick: Quentin Johnston Under 2.5 Receptions (+120)
Chargers vs. Broncos Prop for Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton
Anytime TD Scorer (+275)
This Broncos' offense has looked terrible this season. The total in this game doesn't reflect a game where we want to bet touchdowns, but the odds on Courtland Sutton are too good.
Sutton has been the go-to guy in the red zone this season with seven targets, with the next closest WR having two. He only has one touchdown to his 17 receptions, but he has a large 41 targets this year. His catch rate improved recently, sitting close to 50% across the last three weeks, and he should get heavy volume.
I have the true odds closer to +200.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD Scorer (+275)
