» Go to our expert's prop picks for Sunday Night Football
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite NFL prop bets throughout the season. He has a 453-345-7 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
Note that these lines move fast, so he has foregone any analysis — but these picks are based on his award-winning player projections, which you can find here.
NFL Player Props For Week 10
Panthers-Cardinals Props
D.J. Moore Under 60.5 Rec Yards (-113)
The Panthers have averaged only 166 passing yards a game over the past five games. Maybe Cam Newton will get the Panthers' offense going when he presumably takes over as starter next week. However, I expect their low passing volume to continue under P.J. Walker this week.
Moore's prop is way too high as a result.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 56.5
Vikings-Chargers Props
Adam Thielen Under 62.5 Rec Yards (-113)
I was already showing value on Thielen's under, then head coach Mike Zimmer mentioned they need to get Justin Jefferson more targets. The Vikings are trying to avoid another Stefon Diggs situation with Jefferson and make sure to feed their top wideout targets.
Either way, I like Thielen to stay under this number.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 59.5
Eagles-Broncos Props
DeVonta Smith Under 58.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Smith performs much better against zone (2.08 yards per route run) than he does against man (0.69 YPRR). The Broncos play man at the highest rate in the league.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 55.5
Note that the following NFL player props are for games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Jaguars-Colts Props
Laviska Shenault Over 38.5 Rec Yards (-113)
Shenault has been much more productive against zone coverage (2.22 yards per route run), so the Colts — who play zone at the fifth-highest rate in the league — are a plus matchup for him.
He's a sneaky bet for 5+ receptions this week.
- Best book as of writing:FanDuel
- Bet to: 38.5
Browns-Patriots Props
Rashard Higgins Under 24.5 Rec Yards (-115)
Higgins played only three snaps last week with Odell Beckham Jr. out of the lineup. Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said that he intends to get Higgins more opportunities with Beckham no longer with the team. However, I expect Higgins to still be behind Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones and even rookie Anthony Schwartz this week.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 21.5
D'Ernest Johnson Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
Nick Chubb, Demetric Felton and John Kelly are out due to COVID-19 this week. And Kareem Hunt is still sidelined. As a result, Johnson should get all the carries he can handle here.
In a similar situation with Chubb and Hunt out in Week 7, Johnson was able to rack up 22 carries in Week 7.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 18.5
Falcons-Cowboys Props
Tajae Sharpe Over 2.5 Rec (-110)
Sharpe has settled into a full-time role with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup, so we can safely project Sharpe for a 65-75% routes run rate in the meantime.
Here are his receiving lines in the three games he had higher than a 65% routes run rate:
- Week 5 (76% rate): 4/53/0
- Week 8 (68% rate): 5/58/0
- Week 9 (86% rate): 1/12/0
Week 9 seems like the anomaly out of the three games, which is why we are getting such a low reception prop for him here. I'm projecting him for 3.3 receptions.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: -140
Saints-Titans Props
Tre'Quan Smith Under 38.5 Rec Yards (-113)
Smith usually has a wide range of outcomes, but considering the Saints could turn to run-first quarterback Taysom Hill at any given moment, Smith is much more likely to hit his floor.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 35.5
MyCole Pruitt Under 11.5 Rec Yards (-110)
The Titans have a three-way TE committee with Pruitt third in the pecking order. I'm projecting him for 1.0 receptions and a median of 8.5 receiving yards, and a three-yard difference in a market this low is way more valuable than three yards would be for say a Travis Kelce prop.
- Best book as of writing:DraftKings
- Bet to: 11.5
What Are NFL Player Prop Bets?
Bets on a player's statistics or various outcomes can be considered a player prop. Betting on the over or under on a quarterback's passing yards, over or under on a wide receiver's number of receptions, and whether a running back will score a touchdown are all considered player props.
To learn more about the various types of props you can bet on, check out our Betting 101 series.
