NFL Conference Championship Player Props: Jared Goff & Jahmyr Gibbs
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Under 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
We’ve seen Gibbs’ usage take a hit in Detroit’s first two playoff games with David Montgomery handling more work than expected.
I’m expecting that to change since we see Gibbs’ usage in both the run and pass game go up … yet I’m still showing some value on the under for both his rushing and receiving props.
Gibbs has a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks fourth in DVOA. The Lions average the third-most plays per game, but their overall volume may be a bit down on Sunday because the 49ers do a good job of dominating time of possession and limiting plays of the opposition (sixth-lowest plays per game allowed). This could hurt Gibbs given he’s in an even timeshare with Montgomery.
I’m projecting Gibbs’ median closer to 67.5 rushing and receiving yards with a 61% chance he stays under 79.5.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115; bet365).
QB Jared Goff
Under 24.5 Completions (-135)
This reminds me of the Tua Tagovailoa prop I took in the Wild Card Round. It's a game where the Lions will likely face a rare, trailing game script and be forced to pass at a higher rate.
But still, there are a few factors as to why this prop is still too high for Goff:
- It's a road game. Goff's struggles on the road throughout his career have been well-documented. This year is no different, as his completion rate has been 5% lowers on the road.
- Goff targets the middle of the field at the second-highest rate in the league. The 49ers rank first in DVOA on pass attempts to the middle of the field.
- The 49ers are around league-average in pressure rate, but blitz at the third-lowest rate. They lean on Nick Bosa and their defensive line to get pressure without sending extra rushers. That's the specific type of pressure that causes the most issues for Goff, as he only has a 50% completion rate when facing pressure without extra rushers. That's something that could be even more likely today, too, with left guard Jonah Jackson out. Goff's completion percentage drops 2.5% when Jackson is not on the field.
I'm projecting Goff at 22.5 completions today and give him a 65% chance to stay under 24.5. If the line moves to 23.5, I still give him a 60% chance to stay under that number.
Pick: Jared Goff Under 24.5 Completions (-135; ESPN BET).
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RB Justice Hill
Longest Rush Under 11.5 (-115)
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Hill has only cleared this number on 7-of-97 rush attempts this season, basically once out of every 13-14 rush attempts.
Last week he rushed the ball a season-high 13 times, but five of those came after Gus Edwards left the game with a hand injury. We also saw Dalvin Cook mix in quite a bit as well.
I’m in line with the market, which projects Hill for around seven rush attempts against Kansas City. He’s going to dominate the passing-down work and he sees a high percentage of rush attempts on third down – the 13th-highest rate among 79 qualified backs.
The Chiefs’ rush defense has been shaky at times this season, but they have only allowed 3.1 yards per rush on RB carries on third downs, which is the seventh-lowest rate.
Their run defense ranks 27th in DVOA, but I think that’s a bit misleading since they’ve been without LB Nick Bolton for eight games. He’s one of their better run defenders and is fully healthy now.
I’m projecting Hill’s median closer to 10 with a 62% chance his longest rush is under 11.5 yards.
Pick: Justice Hill Longest Rush Under 11.5 (-115; ESPN BET).
WR Justin Watson
Under 1.5 Receptions (-105)
Watson has only cleared this in two of his last eight games. Last week, he saw his lowest route participation since Week 8 due to the Chiefs using 2-3 tight end sets at the highest rate of the season.
We could see them opt for more heavy personnel this week with left guard Joe Thuney out in order to make sure Patrick Mahomes has extra protection against the Ravens' pass rush.
Watson was also outsnapped last week by Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had two big catches, so it's possible Scantling outsnaps Watson here as well, which would lower his floor even more.
It's also a brutal matchup specifically for Watson considering most of his targets are 15-plus yards downfield. The Ravens have only allowed a 33% completion rate to opposing wide receivers on targets 15-plus yards downfield, the lowest rate in the NFL.
Watson runs either a curl or a corner route more than 40% of the time. The Ravens have been excellent against those routes and have allowed the third-lowest completion rate to opposing receivers against them.
I'm projecting Watson to run around 20 routes and see 2-3 targets, all of which should be low-percentage downfield shots against one of the best secondaries, and one that specializes in shutting down players like Watson.
I'm projecting Watson with a 62% chance to stay under 1.5 receptions.
