Garrett Wilson
Under 4.5 Receptions (-145, DraftKings)
Garrett Wilson has cooled off since Zach Wilson returned to action, posting lines of 2/41/0 and 3/27/0. With numerous mouths to feed in New York's offense, Zach Wilson has been spreading the ball around fairly evenly — at the expense of the rookie wideout.
Garrett Wilson has been much more efficient against man coverage (2.90 YPRR) than he has against zone (1.57), so a matchup against a Packers team that uses zone at the eighth highest rate could ding him here.
I’m projecting him closer to 3.8 receptions and a 66% chance he stays under 4.5 receptions.
Aaron Jones
Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Aaron Jones has been one of the most efficient runners this season, averaging a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry. While that rate is unsustainable, it does seem to be influencing how Green Bay's coaching staff uses Jones, who is coming off of a season-high 65% share of the rush attempts.
His overall volume against the Giants last week was limited due to the trailing game script, which only allowed the Packers to run the ball 20 times. But in this matchup where the Packers are seven-point home favorites, we could see them rush up to 28-30 times.
Jones could end up seeing 13-15 of those attempts. I’m projecting his median closer to 67.5 rushing yards.
Jaylen Waddle
Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
The Dolphins’ passing attack gets a downgrade with Skylar Thompson expected to start this week. We already got a sneak peek as to how that impacts Waddle, who posted a 3/23/0 line with Thompson under center for most of their Week 5 game against the Jets.
Head coach Mike McDaniel should have a better chance to scheme ways for Thompson to get the ball into the hands of Waddle (and Tyreek Hill) with a week of preparation. However, 56.5 is a pretty steep number considering Waddle’s aDot of 3.7 last week.
If Miami continues to use him in that fashion this week, it’ll be great for his reception prop and suboptimal for his yardage. I’m projecting his median closer to 48.5 yards.
Mecole Hardman
Under 2.5 Receptions (+115, BetMGM)
Rookie Skyy Moore has been eating into Hardman’s playing time recently and it’s resulted in Hardman’s route run rate dropping into the 45-50% range over the past two games.
It’s going to be much tougher for Hardman to clear this number if that trend continues. Plus, this is a matchup where Patrick Mahomes could face a higher rate of pressure against an elite Bills pass rush.
On the season, Hardman has seen an 11% target share when Mahomes has a clean pocket, but that plummets to just 5.7% when Mahomes faces pressure. I’m projecting Hardman to stay under 2.5 receptions 58% of the time and it’s an added bonus to get plus odds.
Zach Gentry
Over 2.5 Receptions (-125, DraftKings)
Gentry stepped up for the injured Pat Freiermuth and caught 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards against the Bills last week.
He should see the majority of snaps at TE against the Bucs in what should be a trailing game script. I’m projecting him closer to 3.2 receptions with a 62% chance of catching three or more passes.
Tyler Higbee
Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Higbee is off to a hot start this season and is clearly Matthew Stafford’s No. 2 target. However, he’s dealing with an ankle injury and the Rams should win this game easily. I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to find ways to limit his usage here.
The Panthers will be without CB Jaycee Horn while fellow corners Donte Jackson and C.J. Henderson are both questionable. Needless to say, it would be a good time for Stafford to lean on his WRs a bit more.
Either way, Higbee has an aDot of 3.8 on the season and there is a chance he can be held under this number even if he grabs 6-7 balls, especially if his ankle injury limits his after-the-catch ability.
I’m projecting him closer to 48.5 yards.
