NFL Player Props: Saturday Divisional Round Best Bets
We have six NFL player props for Saturday's Divisional Round Playoffs doubleheader. Check out our best bets in the table below, and navigate this post by clicking on a pick.
| Game | Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs. 49ers
I get that Jordan Love has been absolutely incredible the second half of the season and this line seems too low considering the way he's been playing, but that's what makes this a great sell-high spot for Love.
The matchup here is not a good one for Love, as the 49ers have been one of the best pass defenses in the league while being a league-average rush defense. Aaron Jones comes into this game in great form, hitting over 110 yards in each of his last four games and averaging over five yards per carry in that span. I expect the Packers to rely heavily on Jones in this spot and for Love to struggle in a tough matchup.
I would hit this line all the way down to 245.5.
Pick: Jordan Love Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Packers vs. 49ers
Aaron Jones has rushed for more than 100 yards in four straight games, but that streak will come to an end Saturday night. Jones has had more than 20 carries in each of those performances, and the Packers were afforded a lead for the majority of those games. No running back managed to reach even 18 carries against the 49ers this season, thus Jones will have to break off explosive runs in the limited amount of opportunities he receives.
On a per-carry basis, the 49ers defense was not elite against the run this season, but given the state of how their offense functions, it is very difficult for their opponents to stick with the running game. The 49ers allowed only 89.7 rush yards per game this season, third fewest in the league. Only one running back reached 70 yards rushing against them this year in a game San Francisco won — James Conner in Week 15, and he had to do it on just 14 rushing attempts. The Packers are likely to face a negative game script Saturday night, and they will have no choice but to rely on Jordan Love's arm to keep them in the game.
Play Jones' rushing yards under down to 67.5.
Pick: Aaron Jones Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Texans vs. Ravens
It's the playoffs, and Lamar Jackson is going to be running the ball early and often. Jackson has hit this mark in just seven of his 16 games played, but the Ravens have been involved in a massive amount of blowouts this year. Only eight of their games have been decided by one score this year and most of the other games have been decided by at least two touchdowns, so the hit rate is misleading.
The weather in this game should also play a factor with temperatures being below freezing and winds around 15-20 MPH. I would hit this line all the way to 56.5.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards |
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Texans vs. Ravens
By Tony Sartori
We hit this same prop in the Wild Card Round, and I am going back to the well for this Divisional Round matchup. There is no denying that C.J. Stroud has put together an excellent campaign, and he is going to be rewarded with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award honors.
However, this is still a rookie quarterback playing in his first career playoffs, despite the fact that he looked tremendous last round. Not only that, but he is tasked with going against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
Baltimore finished in the top 10 in the league in both yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per game. The Ravens' underlying metrics were even stronger, ranking first in expected points contributed by passing defense per game.
Fading Stroud's completion's prop is not an indictment on his ability, which is clearly great, but rather the circumstances of going on the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career against arguably the league's best pass defense. Finally, Stroud has completed 21 or fewer passes in nine of his past 14 starts.
It's going to be hard to move the ball against the Ravens, and quick drives or three-and-outs should work in our favor for this Under. Or, like last game, maybe Stroud hits his deep shots and we go Under this number once again despite another Houston win.
I would play this line to -135.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 21.5 Completions (-130)
Texans vs. Ravens
By Ricky Henne
The stars are seemingly aligned for Gus Edwards to find paydirt.
A stout Houston run defense that allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in the regular season and ranked second in DVOA has one major flaw: It allowed a ton of rushing touchdowns. The Texans gave up 19 scores on the ground, which was fifth most in the league. They were especially susceptible at the goal line, giving up 13 touchdowns inside the five-yard line including last week’s playoff game against the Browns.
Meanwhile, Edwards was the NFL’s top goal-line back in the regular season. He led the league in rushing touchdowns (12) and carries (19) inside the five. The main concern here is that Lamar Jackson might vulture some of his chances. However, Edwards had nearly a 4-to-1 ratio over the presumptive league MVP, who had five carries inside the five with one touchdown.
Combine Houston’s propensity for giving up rushing touchdowns with Edwards usage and success at the goal line and you better believe I’m riding the Gus Bus on Saturday.
Pick: Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+125) |
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Texans vs. Ravens
From the moment I dug into this matchup, I knew I wanted Ravens tight end overs. The Texans allowed 107 receptions to opposing tight ends in the regular season — more than any other team — and they allowed the fifth-most yards. And what happened in the first playoff game? Cleveland's top two receivers were David Njoku with 7/93 and Harrison Bryant with 4/65, both tight ends combining for 158 yards on 11 catches.
The question was which Baltimore tight end it would be, with Mark Andrews practicing in an attempt to return. But with Andrews likely out, Isaiah Likely is the guy. He's playing around 75% of the snaps since Andrews went out and compiled 19 catches for 291 yards and four scores, not counting Week 18. That's 3.8 receptions for 58.2 yards a game, with at least 40 yards in all five games.
Likely has five touchdowns in his last five games, which probably makes his Anytime TD odds of +200 (FanDuel) viable, but I love the receiving yards since Likely has 40, 83, 70, 56 and 42 in those five games. He's a big athlete who can bust a long one on any catch, so think about an escalator too. He's +194 to hit 50 yards and +450 to hit 70 (FanDuel), and he's done that in three and two of the past five games, respectively, so those odds are in our favor. Let's ride that escalator.
Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-113) |
