Parris Campbell
Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110; DraftKings)
Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is a tad high as the Colts should be able to keep it close against Minnesota and lean on Jonathan Taylor. Ryan also likes to spread the ball around, and coming out of the bye, we could see rookie Alec Pierce more involved, especially after his 4/86/1 game against Dallas.
Campbell has a 78% catch rate, which will likely be closer to 72-74% going forward based on his 5.9 aDot. He could catch four passes and still stay under this number based on his low aDot.
I'm projecting his median closer to 37.5. It’s worth noting Campbell has finished with 43 yards exactly three times this season.
Demarcus Robinson
Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM)
Robinson has been the Ravens' clear No. 1 WR and has gone over this number in three of the last four games.
However, Baltimore will likely lean on the run game against a Cleveland defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the run. Plus, DeSean Jackson’s role continues to grow and we should see Mark Andrews break out of his slump any week now.
All these factors lead to my median projection being closer to 30.5 for Robinson.
James Cook
Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-120; BetMGM)
After posting a rushing line of 14/64/0 in Week 13, Cook followed up with a very disappointing Week 14 in which he only rushed for 4/6/0.
However, his playing time remained the same as his Week 13 breakout (41% snap rate). Last week, he was a victim of …
1) The Bills passing more when he was in on early downs.
2) Buffalo being dominated in time of possession.
Both factors will likely shift in Cook’s favor in Week 15. There is also likely going to be snow and wind in the forecast, leading the Bills to a run-heavy game script.
I think Cook will be sneaky in snowy conditions considering he has one of the lowest EFF ratings on NextGenStats. EFF is a stat that measures the total distance a player travels per rushing yard gained. Cook’s rating indicates a very efficient, north-south running style that I’ve found to be valuable in snowy conditions.
I’m projecting Cook's median closer to 33.5 yards and I love his upside this week.
