The NFL is back with a juicy Thursday Night Football season opener between the NFC North favorites, the Detroit Lions, and the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are my four NFL player prop selections for Lions vs. Chiefs on Thursday, September 7, which includes picks for Skyy Moore, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Sam LaPorta.
Skyy Moore Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Uncertainty surrounding the health of Travis Kelce, who was reportedly ruled out on Thursday night, has led to Moore's receiving yards total ticking up. Still, I love the over at 43.5 yards.
There were times last season that Moore felt like a bust. After the first 10 weeks, he had just seven receptions — but after that point, it seemed like the team trusted him more.
Moore only exceeded 43.5 receiving yards on one occasion last season, but there are fewer mouths to feed now.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman departed and Kadarius Toney is questionable. And that’s before you even consider any doubts about Kelce’s fitness.
Against what was a poor defense last season, we could see the 22-year-old shine.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-115)
Gibbs was one of the most intriguing NFL draft picks this year. Being selected 12th overall in this running back climate tells you what the Lions think of him and his skill set.
They may have signed David Montgomery during free agency, but they have big plans for Gibbs and have alluded to as much throughout the preseason.
Gibbs himself has said that he’s eyeing 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards — lofty ambitions, but ones he could reach.
Detroit's staff has stated we’ll see him used in unexpected ways, but the one thing we know is that Gibbs is a demon in space. The Lions' staff will be doing their best to get Gibbs in the open field or in one-on-one matchups, where he can use his agility and burst for big plays.
He’s a home run hitter, and I love the over on his longest reception, which is currently set at 14.5 yards.
Pick: Gibbs Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-115)
Sam LaPorta Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
LaPorta was one of my big NFL draft crushes. By ending up on the Lions, he's joined a team that will give him plenty of opportunities.
We all know that it’s risky to trust rookie tight ends — especially in Week 1 — but in LaPorta’s case, I think he’s different. He’s already at the top of the depth chart — ahead of Brock Wright and James Mitchell — and we know he’s going to run a lot of routes.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the man in Detroit, but with Jameson Williams suspended, Marvin Jones past his prime and Josh Reynolds being the next man up, are we certain that LaPorta can’t be the second-best receiving option for his team in the opening weeks?
LaPorta will be fed targets. Standing at 6-foot-3, he'll be a red-zone difference maker, too.
Let’s go all in on SLP Thursday night.
David Montgomery Anytime TD (+125)
Given that I’m backing Gibbs to have a big day, you might be surprised to see me backing Montgomery to find the end zone.
Don’t be, as the reasons are simple. I love Gibbs, I love his skill set and I love his dynamism, but part of the reason he was effective in college was his size.
To put it simply, I don’t trust him through the tackles yet. I need to see him consistently make yards after contact against big nose tackles before I believe that.
Meanwhile, Montgomery can offer the Lions that, and they know that, too, hence spending the money on him in free agency.
Montgomery is a big, strong back, and he’ll be the man trusted to gain the hard yards when the Lions are within touching distance of the end zone.
