This is a fantastic price for Gabe Davis, who hasn’t been above +125 all season.
Davis is second on the team in touchdowns with five, and four of them have been scored from outside the red zone. That's notable because the Lions rank 30th in opponent explosive passing plays of 20 yards or more.
Detroit also ranks last in yards per pass attempt allowed. I think Josh Allen will launch at least three or four deep balls to Davis.
Pretty much any Bills player offers value in this game, but I’m going to bet Davis.
Prescott is starting to utilize his legs a bit more and scored in his last home game against the Bears, against whom he was +350 to score.
In fact, Prescott has registered 26 rushing TDs and one receiving TD, 17 of which came in home games.
The Giants also present a plus matchup for Prescott. New York was trounced by Detroit a week ago, surrendering four rushing scores. In their first encounter back in Week 3, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott each averaged more than six yards per carry.
The Giants are the only NFC East team that Prescott has not scored a rushing TD on his career. I think that changes for Thanksgiving.
Pick: Dak Prescott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550) |
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I’m not sure if the Patriots forgot about him or if they’re just saving him for the latter half of season, but Hunter Henry is still a certified red-zone weapon.
Henry had nine touchdowns last season and has never had fewer than four. This year, he only has one, though part of the reason why is matchup-driven. New England has faced the third-hardest schedule for tight ends when it comes to opponents' DVOA.
Henry plays over 80% of snaps and leads the team in red-zone targets. My odds projection has this at +325.
Pick: Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+450) |
