NFL Player Props | Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving! I'm laying out my NFL player props for the Turkey Day tripleheader, which concludes with a Zach Charbonnet pick for 49ers vs. Seahawks.
I'll start out by clarifying that one-half sack here for Hutchinson cashes this prop.
Hutchinson has been one of the best edge rushers in his second season. Only Micah Parsons is averaging more than his 5.8 pressures per game.
However, that has only resulted in five sacks on the season for Hutchinson. Based on his underlying metrics, he should have around 10 sacks on the season.
I think this is a great time to invest in Hutchinson getting a sack. He will be matched up against Packers tackle Zach Tom, who has been solid but has allowed a team-high 21 pressures this season.
This is also a game that's likely to see Jordan Love having to drop back to pass quite a bit, giving Hutchinson a few extra chances at a sack. He had 1.5 sacks in these teams' previous meeting back in Week 4. In Week 18 last season, he had two.
I’m projecting Hutchinson with about a 63% chance to at least get a sack here.
Gallup has been splitting snaps with Jalen Tolbert since the Cowboys' Week 7 bye. He's averaged a 50% routes run rate over the past four weeks. Tolbert is a 2022 third-round pick, so he's no scrub. Gallup's routes run rate has also been slightly lower in games that KaVontae Turpin has been healthy.
Gallup’s target rate has also been down over the last four games. He's seeing a target on just 14% of his routes, and that was 18% in Weeks 1-6, Gallup has still managed to clear this number in two of those four games thanks to a 69% catch rate.
The Commanders play man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Gallup is the only Cowboys pass catcher who sees a drop in yards per route run against man coverage.
Gallup will likely be the Cowboys receiver who matches up across from Washington CB Kendall Fuller the most often, which is a very tough matchup.
This is a good time to invest in some potential regression for Gallup. I’m projecting his median closer to 19.5 with a 60% chance he stays under 24.5 receiving yards.
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The second-round rookie out of UCLA has been one of the best backup running backs in the NFL this season. With Kenneth Walker expected to miss, Charbonnet is expected to get his first start and should handle most of the early down work.
Charbonnet has been off-the-charts good in underlying metrics: He's first in EPA per rushing attempts, first in first-down rate, second in explosive run rate and fifth in lowest-stuff rate.
Charbonnet only ran for 47 yards on 15 attempts after replacing Walker last week against the Rams. I wouldn’t expect him to maintain the same level of efficiency in a full-time role, but I think it was a blessing in disguise that he struggled to keep his rushing prop in check for this game.
The 49ers have allowed a league average of 4.1 yards per carry to opposing backs, but they’ve had one of the easiest schedules against opposing rushing offenses. San Francisco enters Week 12 ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run.
Charbonnet is capable of handling a full workload, and I think has a much more efficient game than last week.
I'm projecting his median closer to 58.5 with a 60% chance he clears 52.5.
