Our staff has you covered with NFL player props for every team playing on Thanksgiving.
We start the slate as we usually do, with games in Detroit and Dallas. One game will feature the best team in the NFL against the No. 1 overall pick, while the other will have two backup quarterbacks.
The slate finishes up at the "Frozen Tundra," which will host Dolphins vs. Packers.
Check out our staff's picks for Turkey Day, and happy Thanksgiving!
NFL Player Props
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Caleb Williams Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Caleb Williams has looked like an entirely different QB since Shane Waldron got fired.
Williams' playmakers are being used the way they're meant to be used, and he's getting the ball out early on high-percentage passes. He's completed over 70% of passes over the last 2 games, and he's hit the over at this number in both games, with 231 and 340 passing yards.
Here, Williams gets a matchup vs. a good Lions defense, but they are a massive pass funnel, forcing opponents to pass at the 3rd-highest rate in the league and allowing the 8th-most passing yards per game. The spread is sitting at Detroit -10, so the Bears will likely be forced to throw all game long.
I have Williams projected for more than 30 yards over this number, making this a great bet.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been absolutely fantastic in the red zone this season, catching 12 of 13 targets for 5 touchdowns. He has a massive 9 touchdowns on the season, all of which have come in the last 9 games.
The Lions offense will likely lean more run-heavy vs. the Bears, whose run defense has been bad this season, but we've seen this passing game succeed in any matchup. Amon-Ra has the 5th-most red zone targets and 2nd-most receptions in the red zone this season.
I have him at well over a 50% chance of scoring, making this a good bet.
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Tyrone Tracy Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Tracy finally got involved in the receiving game in Week 11, reeling in 4 catches on 4 targets for 28 yards. The converted receiver had totaled 4 receptions over his past 3 games. It was just Tracy's 2nd game of the season with more than 3 targets.
Those are Tommy DeVito stats. Tommy Cutlets loves dumping it off to running backs. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Giants had the 3rd-lowest running back target share in the league at 14.2%. In Week 12, it spiked to 26.7%. That would rank 2nd in the league for the full season. In DeVito's 6 starts last season, he targeted running backs at a 22.9% rate.
Dallas has been vulnerable to pass-catching backs, allowing the 8th-most receiving yards per game. They're also favorites at home, so the game script should favor New York's passing attack.
Tracy's fumbling issues cost him playing time in Week 11. I don't expect it to inhibit his workload this week, given that the Giants aren't playing for anything. Getting reps for rookies like Tracy should be the primary focus for the organization.
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CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (-125)
After a slow start to the season, CeeDee Lamb is back to seeing massive volume. He has 10+ targets in 6 straight games. Lamb hasn't seen a dropoff with Cooper Rush under center, piling up 24 catches on 34 targets in the backup's 3 starts.
This is an excellent coverage matchup for Lamb. The Giants use single high safety looks at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Lamb has been much better facing single high this season. He's posted a 28.1% target share, 0.31 targets per route run, and 2.58 yards per route run against single high. With Rush under center, Lamb's target share is up to 33.3% vs. single high coverage. When facing two high safety looks, Lamb's numbers dip to a 22.1% target share, 0.25 targets per route run, and 1.7 yards per route run this season.
Even as home favorites, I'm expecting solid pass volume for the Cowboys. After an excessive 55 attempts in Week 11, Rush threw 32 passes in a competitive Week 12 game. Lamb should be heavily involved in this spot.
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De'Von Achane Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
By Matt Trebby
Fortunately for the Dolphins, they blew out the Patriots on Sunday and were able to limit De'Von Achane’s workload to just 13 touches. That’s his lightest load since Week 5, so he should be poised for as many carries as necessary here.
Achane has gone over this rushing total in four of his last six games, and this sets up as a game the Dolphins will want to keep the ball on the ground. Green Bay has a middling rush defense, and the cold temperatures should lead both teams to keep the ball on the ground.
Sean Koerner is projecting Achane for 61 rushing yards, so I’d play this one up to 57.5.
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Christian Watson Anytime TD Scorer (+230)
If you want to go with Jayden Reed to score a touchdown, I have no problem with that, but I'd rather bet on Christian Watson.
Watson hasn't done a ton this season, but when we last saw him without Romeo Doubs, he had 8 TDs in 4 games back in 2022. He isn't playing with Aaron Rodgers anymore, and while this offense has more weapons, but Watson is a talented WR who is good in the red zone and always a deep threat.
The Miami rush defense hasn't been great this season, but they've looked really good in the last 5 games by holding all starting RBs to under 65 rushing yards and around 3 yards per carry. So the Packers are likely going to be airing the ball out a decent amount, and Watson should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
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