NFL Player Props: Trends Lead Expert to 7 Kicker Picks in Week 7

Extra-point attempts are down 14.9% through the first six weeks this season compared to the first six of last year. Teams are averaging 2.10 XPAs per game compared to 2.47 so far.

At a 94% rate of successful extra-point attempts, that equates to 1.97 made per game. At that clip, the average NFL kicker will go under 1.5 extra points made 41.4% of the time, which is equivalent to +142 odds.

I’ve identified my Week 7 kicker props to target, and there are more of them than usual. The kickers I’m betting on don’t come from the highest scoring offenses, which means their probability of going under 1.5 extra points made is increased.

Here are the kickers I see value on this week, as well as my projection for them.

Dr. Nick's Kicker Props Record in 2022: 13-8 (+5.96 units).

Younghoe Koo
Over 5.5 Kicking Points (-120, BetRivers)

Atlanta goes for it on fourth down at the third lowest rate (8.8%) and kicks field goals at the third highest rate (32.4% of fourth downs). Koo has made 1.67 field goals per game this season.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed at least four field goal attempts in five of six games. Kickers are 6-for-6 in clearing over 1.5 field goals made against Cincinnati this year.

I project Koo as having a 58.3% chance of going over this number, or -140. I’d bet this down to -125.

Joey Slye
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+110, BetMGM)

• Project him for a 53.1% (-113) chance of going under.
• Bet to even money.

Chase McLaughlin
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+155, DraftKings)

• Project him for a 45% chance (+123) of going under.
• Bet to (+140).

Graham Gano
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+146, Caesars)

• Project him for a 48.2% chance (+108) of going under.
• Bet to +140.

Cade York
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+155, DraftKings)

• Project him for a 44.8% chance (+124) of going under.
• Bet to +140.

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Brandon McManus
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+135, BetMGM)

• Project him for a 52.2% chance (-109) of going under.
• Bet to +115.

Ka'imi Fairbairn
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+140, BetMGM)

• Project him for a 45.7% chance of going under.
• Bet to +135.