NFL Week 1 has arrived, and with that, I have NFL player props to target for the first Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 1, which include prop picks for Wan'Dale Robinson, Jaleel McLaughlin and more. Keep tabs on this story as I will continue to add more NFL Week 1 props.
NFL Player Props Week 1
Vikings vs Giants Player Props: Fade Wan'Dale Robinson
Wan'Dale Robinson
Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-105)
This is a prop I took a handful of times last year as Robinson had an average depth of target (aDOT) 5.2 yards downfield, which was the third-lowest mark among qualified receivers.
I expect Robinson to get a few catches as the Vikings tend to allow receivers to get open underneath in defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ scheme. Minnesota, however, does a good job of limiting yards after the catch.
On throws that traveled fewer than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the Vikings had the eighth-lowest yards after the catch rate.
I think this is another good spot to target Robinson’s longest reception staying under 14.5 yards. I have him staying under this number around 60% of the time.
Titans vs Bears Player Props: New Scheme Benefits Will Levis
Will Levis
Over 20.5 Completions (-125)
Levis only cleared this in 2-of-8 full games as a rookie. However, this version of the Titans offense should be much more pass heavy in the post-Derrick Henry era. Head coach Brian Callahan is coming over from the Bengals and is expected to implement a similar offense in Tennessee.
Levis had the highest aDot in the league (11.1), which is a huge reason his completion percentage was so low (58.4%) last season. He had 13 pass attempts in preseason and his aDot was much lower (6.8) — that resulted in an 84.6% completion rate.
Having a lower aDot will not only raise his expected completion rate, but it will also bump up the expected plays per game for the Titans, who ran the second fewest plays per game last season.
As for the Bears, they had a pass funnel defense last year and allowed the fifth-most completions per game.
I think this is a good Week 1 investment in what should be a drastic scheme change and I’m projecting Levis closer to 21.7 completions, with a 60% chance to clear.
Broncos vs Seahawks Player Props: Jaleel McLaughlin is All Upside
Jaleel McLaughlin
Over 39.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
The Broncos backfield reminds me of the Steelers’ heading into the season. Javonte Williams is the Najee Harris-type of back while McLaughlin operates as the Jaylen Warren.
McLaughlin may not get a ton of touches, but he usually makes the most of them. I’m expecting 6-8 rush attempts here and like the matchup against the Seahawks, who had a vulnerable rush defense last year.
Seattle allowed the highest Rushing Yards Over Expected in the league and had the second-highest yards after contact per run (2.9) allowed.
This matchup sets up perfectly for McLaughlin, who averaged 3.5 yards after contact per run (which would have been fifth among running backs if he qualified).That said, I always take last year’s data with a grain of salt as Seattle’s defense should improve under new head coach Mike Macdonald.
McLaughlin could also see an uptick in passing game usage after the release of Samaje Perine. Also, I consider Audric Estime as more of an early down back.
I like taking McLaughlin’s over rush + rec yards prop as it’s pretty game-script proof considering he has a shot to clear this number in a trailing or leading context.
Raiders vs Chargers Player Props: Uncertain Role for Hayden Hurst
Hayden Hurst
Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
The Chargers offense will look a lot different this year – I expect it to be much more run heavy under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
I expect Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey to be the top two receiving targets, but outside of them, it’s very murky.
The tight end room looks much different this year with Gerald Everett now with the Bears. It’s unclear how snaps will shake out between Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, but I’m guessing the Chargers’ new offensive approach will favor Dissly as he’s a more complete player and a much better blocker than Hurst.
Hurst could end up being the third target in this offense, but I think he has a much lower floor in Week 1 just given the uncertainty.
I’m projecting his median closer to 16.5 yards with around a 62% chance he stays under.
