Welcome back to Sunday football. We have you covered with our favorite NFL player props for Week 1.
A couple of our analysts are on the same player (Davante Adams) in the late-afternoon slate, while we have four touchdown scorers and a De'Von Achane over for the 1 p.m. slate.
NFL Player Props: Week 1 Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Grant Neiffer's James Conner Prop for Cardinals vs Bills
James Conner should have the same role in this offense as he has over the past three seasons, which makes these odds far too low.
While the Bills defense as a whole should be solid, they were susceptible to the run last season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in DVOA and near the bottom in yards per carry.
Conner, meanwhile, had a solid nine TDs in 13 games last season and was much better when Kyler Murray came back into the offense, scoring in each of the last five games of the season, including 2 multi-TD games in that span. Conner is just two years removed from the one season when Murray played more than 11 games with him, and he had 18 TDs that year.
I have the true odds around +120, making this a great bet.
Pick: James Conner ATD (+170)
Kyle Murray's De'Von Achane Prop for Jaguars vs Dolphins
By Kyle Murray
I would love to be early on the De'Von Achane receiving market, as there have been countless reports from Miami camp stating that Achane will be used much more in the passing game this season.
It makes too much sense for it not to happen. Achane is extremely explosive, and with the Dolphins still having Raheem Mostert at RB and two of their WRs starting the season on the PUP list, Achane could have a nice role carved out in the slot. Also, he could easily hit this over on one simple screen pass.
Pick: De'Von Achane Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Grant Neiffer's Joe Mixon Prop for Texans vs Colts
Joe Mixon may be getting older, but there's no reason that he should be at plus odds. He had 12 TDs last season and had TDs in 10 of 17 games.
Now, Mixon is a key part of a Texans offense that is more explosive than the Bengals were last season. He should get 15-20 rush attempts per game and be the goal-line back. This week, Mixon gets a matchup against the Colts, who were 24th in Rush DVOA last season and should be similarly below average this season.
I have Mixon at over a 50% chance of getting a TD, making this a great bet at plus money
Pick: Joe Mixon ATD (+120)
Grant Neiffer's Michael Pittman Prop for Texans vs Colts
Michael Pittman hasn't been a huge touchdown threat in his career, but he should see a decent bump with Anthony Richardson at QB.
The volume has been there over the past few years for Pittman, but the Colts offense hasn't been great in either of the last two years specifically, ranking near the bottom of the league in points scored. Indianapolis should see a big boost with Richardson under center, and Pittman should be the main beneficiary.
The Colts' Week 1 matchup sets up great for Pittman against a Texans defense that ranked near the top of the league in rush defense last season but in the bottom third of the league against the pass. Add in that No. 2 Indy WR Josh Downs is out, and the Colts will likely have a pass-heavy game script that will give Pittman the volume he'll need to find the end zone.
I have the true odds around +150.
Pick: Michael Pittman ATD (+190)
Grant Neiffer's Zack Moss Prop for Patriots vs Bengals
Zack Moss was fantastic last season when Jonathan Taylor wasn't the lead back, scoring a touchdown in five of eight games when Taylor didn't play or wasn't at full speed.
Moss takes over Joe Mixon's role in this offense from last season, and he had 12 TDs last season. In my opinion, Moss is the better RB of the two players so his upside this season is very high.
This isn't expected to be a high-scoring game with a 41-point total, but Tee Higgins is doubtful and Ja'Marr Chase likely won't be at full speed. Even if Chase plays, Moss is going to have a big role.
I have Moss at a 45% chance of scoring a TD, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Zack Moss ATD (+150)
Charlie DiSturco's Jaxon Smith-Njigba Prop for Broncos vs Seahawks
If you’ve followed some of my colleagues here at Action Network, like Brandon Anderson, you’ll know that they are very high on the Seahawks this season. It’s a breath of fresh air to have Pete Carroll out of Seattle, and Mike Macdonald has long hyped up Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who I believe is on the precipice of a Year 2 breakout.
“He’s definitely going to be a massive piece of what we’re trying to do offensively,” Macdonald said.
Tyler Lockett is returning from injury and should be limited in his snaps, which would mean more targets and routes for Smith-Njigba, who realistically should be the WR2 in this offense.
From Week 6 on, JSN finished with 40+ receiving yards in nine of 13 games (69%) and that’s with a run-heavy approach and him being misused under Carroll. It’s time to let the training wheels off.
This is a great buy-low spot on Smith-Njigba. His yardage total sits in the mid-40s, and he should see an extremely high target share given the Lockett injury and the fact that DK Metcalf will likely be the focal point for this Denver defense. Oh, and for what it’s worth, Denver finished among the worst pass defenses from a DVOA perspective last year.
In a few weeks from now, we could very well look back and laugh at how low Smith-Njigba was priced. I, for one, will be targeting him here.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Brian Matthews's Davante Adams Player Prop for Raiders vs. Chargers
Davante Adams dealt with horrible quarterback play last year with Aiden O’Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo. I’m not saying Gardner Minshew is Joe Montana, but he certainly gets the ball to his best playmakers. Think Michael Pittman last year, who had over 1,000 yards with Minshew peppering him with targets. Pittman finished the 2023 regular season ranked ninth in the NFL in targets, and Adams was second.
This is a prime vendetta game. When the Chargers social media team released their schedule on Twitter, it included a picture of Adams next to garbage flavored pop tarts. Adams has said he will respond on the field, and he has over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in three of his last four games against the Chargers.
In his last four games against the Chargers, Adams has finished with 141, 177, 75 and 101 receiving yards. This is a smash spot.
Pick: Davante Adams ATD (+210)
Grant Neiffer's Davante Adams Pick
Adams had a down season last year with just eight TDs in 17 games, but I'm expecting more out of him this year with Gardner Minshew at the helm. While Minshew isn't a great QB, he's a clear upgrade over the rotating cast that Adams had last season.
Adams has been a TD machine over the last four years with 52 TDs in 64 games and is still one of the best wide receivers in the game. We don't know what to fully expect from Harbaugh's new-look Chargers, but they ranked near the bottom of the league last season against the pass and are playing in a dome.
I have the true odds around +140 for Adams, making this a great bet.
Pick: Davante Adams ATD (+210)
Sam Farley's J.K. Dobbins Prop for Raiders vs Chargers
By Sam Farley
Putting a +1800 selection up as a best bet might raise eyebrows, but this line feels heavily mispriced since a single J.K. Dobbins ATD is +240.
Dobbins has suffered with injuries in his three years in the NFL but when actually on the field, he's looked electric. The Chargers backfield is projecting to be a committee, but Dobbins is the far more talented back compared to Gus Edwards. In a Jim Harbaugh offense, you know they're going to run the ball a lot.
Dobbins could have a monster season if the stars align and he stays healthy. Given that he's set to start in Week 1, the +1800 on offer for multiple touchdowns feels like a steal.
Pick: J.K. Dobbins 2 Touchdowns (+1800)
