Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL props in Week 10.
NFL Player Props: Anytime TD Scorers Week 10
| Picks |
|---|
| Patriots vs. Bears |
| Vikings vs. Jaguars |
| Steelers vs. Commanders |
| Bills vs. Colts |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs |
| Falcons vs. Saints |
| 49ers vs. Buccaneers |
| Titans vs. Chargers |
| Jets vs. Cardinals |
| Eagles vs. Cowboys |
Patriots vs. Bears
The Bears’ defense is quite good at limiting short passes and are fourth in defensive DVOA against running backs as pass-catchers. That means unless you want to take RB Rhamondre Stevenson to run one in at +150, I’d rather go after TE Hunter Henry at +400.
Henry leads the Pats in targets and in QB Drake Maye's last three starts, the tight end has 23 targets. The rookie quarterback was clearly looking for Henry as four of his nine targets in Week 9 were in the red zone.
Betting on Bears touchdown scorers might be the most frustrating exercise for a bettor. In Week 9, I bet on WR DJ Moore to score at +210. He finished with four catches and 33 yards. In Week 8, I bet on TE Cole Kmet for National TE Week at +300, and he finished with one catch and 14 yards.
Both of these bets were based on how the Bears could exploit their opponent’s defensive weakness, and both fell flat on their face. Why? Because the Bears coaching staff is inept and not putting QB Caleb Williams in positions to succeed.
Now, despite what the season-long data may say, the Bears got a pretty tough defensive matchup against the Patriots, who plan man coverage at a top-three rate in the NFL. In theory, this should be another Moore/Kmet game, but can you really trust this offense to do the right thing?
Moore at +210 and Kmet at +320 are the Bears I’d bet, but I can’t put real money on these until further notice after their past few games.
Verdict: Hunter Henry +400 | DJ Moore +210 & Cole Kmet +380 if you like pain
Vikings vs. Jaguars
This could be a low-key disaster for the Jaguars. QB Trevor Lawrence is out and now they turn to Mac Jones, who threw an interception in nine of his last 11 games as a Patriots starter. Jones will face a Vikings defense that's super predictable by forcing the issue with an insane 55.1% blitz rate (first in NFL).
Well, if the Vikings are going to blitz and continue to play zone defense at a top-three rate, then we need to go back to rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. He has been the most-effective Jaguars playmaker against zone, leading the team with 3.05 yards per route run against zone according to Pro Football Focus with three receiving touchdowns. The latter stat is tied for second in the NFL with WR Mike Evans and TE Tucker Kraft.
The recipe is simple on how you bet touchdown scorers against Jacksonville: Find the pass-catcher with the best metrics against man defenses and hammer it. For this game, it’s naturally WR Justin Jefferson, who is essentially matchup-proof but has touchdown odds between -105 and -130. This is to be expected.
So, we’re pivoting to TE TJ Hockenson at +250. The Jags rank 31st in defensive DVOA against tight ends and have allowed five touchdowns to the position. If you want to take a flier on backup TEs like Josh Oliver or Johnny Mundt, make sure you getting odds over +700 and +1000.
Verdict: Brian Thomas Jr. +200 | TJ Hockenson +280
Steelers vs. Commanders
I don’t think many people outside of Pittsburgh and Washington had these two teams having a combined record of 13-4, but both lead their divisions and made some trades that indicate they’re going for it in 2024.
Part of the touchdown betting strategy when facing the Commanders is to look for wide receivers who thrive against man coverage. For the Steelers, the list starts and stops with WR George Pickens.
Pickens only has one touchdown this season, but you could argue he should’ve had three in just the last game with one score being called back on penalty and another with not getting both feet in bounds. The Commanders did just add one of the top man-coverage cornerbacks in CB Marshon Lattimore, but he's not going to play in this game.
I wanted to go back to Commanders WR Noah Brown (+300), but it might be a tough matchup for him. The Steelers secondary has been tough this year and while I expect CB Joey Porter Jr. to follow WR Terry McLaurin around for most of the game, Steelers CB2 Donte Jackson has also been pretty solid this season.
If you want to take a long shot on WR3 Dyami Brown at +1200, I'd get it. He's the only other Commanders receiver outside of McLaurin to catch a touchdown against man defense this season and is second on the team in target share.
Verdict: George Pickens +200 | Sprinkle on Dyami Brown +1200
Bills vs. Colts
Both of these teams play their fair share of zone with the Colts ranking in the top three and the Bills at ninth. With that, there’s one clear option to consider on each side.
For the Bills, WR Khalil Shakir has the best metrics against zone. He leads the team in target share, first read rate and has an insane 96% catch rate. He’s the issue though: He’s already down to +160 to score because WR Keon Coleman is out and WR Amari Cooper is nursing an injury.
Instead, I’d rather go down the list and take TE Dalton Kincaid at +210. He has seen five red-zone targets over the last three games and the Colts rank 27th in defensive DVOA against tight ends with five touchdowns allowed to the position.
Josh Downs is my go-to at the moment for Colts touchdown props, especially with QB Joe Flacco under center. Downs has seen his target rate, first read rate and receptions per game all pick up with Flacco in, and I expect that trend to continue. Especially since Downs has been the Colts best option against zone this season with 2.05 yards per route run according to PFF and a 33% target share.
Verdict: Dalton Kincaid +210 | Josh Downs +225
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Broncos pass-catchers are where the value is in this game for touchdown scorers even if it's a tough road for someone like WR Courtland Sutton (+275). The Chiefs rank fifth in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s and seventh overall against the pass. Sutton is clearly QB Bo Nix’s preferred target in the end zone as he’s seen 22 targets in that span with five in the red zone. Just know going in that he’ll be matched up with CB Trent McDuffie a lot and only one true No.1 wideout has scored on them in Drake London in Week 3.
Instead, why not go with WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey at +600? He’s playing the second-most snaps of any Broncos receiver and has an insane six red-zone targets over the last three games.
The Broncos secondary is their biggest strength on defense and plays man coverage at a top-three rate, so as much as it pains me to go back to him after he burned me in Week 9, WR Xavier Worthy is our choice at +260. He leads the team in target share against man with two touchdowns.
After such an ugly performance that saw him lose track of the end zone on a reception and finished with -10 rushing and receiving yards, I project a bounce-back game for the rookie.
Verdict: Lil’Jordan Humphrey +600 | Xavier Worthy +260
Falcons vs. Saints
If Drake London is playing, he’s nearly an auto-bet. He’s caught a touchdown in six of nine games and second in the NFL with 13 red-zone targets. It also helps that All-Pro CB Marshon Lattimore is no longer with the Saints.
If London is out, we'll pivot to WR3 Ray-Ray McLoud at +250. After London left last week's game, McCloud played over 90% of snaps and caught his first touchdown of the season.
When these teams played in Week 4, it was pretty clear that it was a Taysom Hill game. The QB/TE hybrid scored two touchdowns in the first half before leaving the game with a rib injury. If it wasn’t for two defensive/special teams touchdowns from the Falcons, the Saints should’ve won the game.
Well, Hill is back and he scored a touchdown last week against the awful Panthers defense. With the running backs room in shambles (Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller both hurt), we could see another week where a Hill touchdown is inevitable.
Verdict: Ray-Ray McCloud +250 (only if Drake London isn’t playing) | Taysom Hill +185
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Say what you will about Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, it was impressive to watch him push the ball downfield on the Chiefs defense despite not having Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Will he be able to replicate that against another aggressive defense in the 49ers?
If he can, then we want to bet on a running back like RB Bucky Irving (+180). The Niners have been decent at limiting pass-catching backs with only one receiving touchdown allowed, but they've given up seven rushing touchdowns, which is why they rank second in defensive DVOA against the pass but 19th against the run.
If the 49ers are getting back all of their offensive studs, this could be a “pick your poison” type of outcome for the Bucs defense. With RB Christian McCaffrey poised to make his season debut, I’m still not ready to jump back in after missing the first nine weeks of the season.
Someone I do like is TE George Kittle at +140. Kittle leads all tight ends in touchdowns this year, and the Bucs have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends this season and rank 29th in defensive DVOA against the position. I’d also dabble on WR Jauan Jennings at +210, but Kittle is one of the few Niners offensive weapons with no other competition at his position.
Verdict: Bucky Irving +180 | George Kittle +140
Titans vs. Chargers
I’m not sure if this is sustainable but WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is on a legendary run with touchdowns in four straight games. If you had tailed his touchdown prop in every game this season, you’d be up 30.3 units of profit.
Despite this, sportsbooks don't think this is sustainable and have him at +450 to score. Even though one of those touchdowns came against zone defense (the Chargers play zone at the highest rate in NFL), all of his metrics against zone like target share, aDOT and yards per route run are awful.
By default, just keep betting WR Calvin Ridley at +300. He’s the Titans' most-talented receiver and is the highest-paid. He has also seen at least eight targets in four straight games.
I know he didn’t score in Week 9, but I love Chargers WR Ladd McConkey in this matchup. The rookie saw seven targets in Week 9 but wasn’t really needed after halftime as the Chargers took a commanding lead that was powered by their rushing attack. This week, I’m not certain the Chargers will have the same success against a Titans run defense that's low-key decent, ranking fifth in defensive DVOA against the run. Only the Lions have run the ball with great success against Tennessee this season.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers have been relying a bit more on QB Justin Herbert’s arm as his passing rate has jumped significantly in that span. It shouldn’t be seen as a coincidence that he’s had back-to-back weeks of two touchdown passes. McConkey has led the charge with 41 targets during this stretch, and his 4.16 yards per route run against man defenses should pay dividends against a Titans defense that rank in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.22) and defensive success rate (52.2%) from man, according to PFF.
Verdict: Calvin Ridley +300 | Ladd McConkey +200
Jets vs. Cardinals
After only scoring four touchdowns so far this season, this feels like a get-right situation for RB Breece Hall against the Cardinals. While Arizona has only allowed one running back to go for more than 100 yards on them this season (Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 4), it has still allowed 10 rushing touchdowns. I expect Hall to score this week, but I’d rather look somewhere else than him at -115.
I know WR Davante Adams and QB Aaron Rodgers are besties, but Rodgers can’t overlook how awesome WR Garrett Wilson has been. After two touchdowns in Week 9 against the Texans, Wilson is averaging over 10 targets per game with 15 red-zone targets this season. Wilson and Adams are pretty evenly priced, so I’ll back Wilson to keep ascending.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has been awfully quiet on the rushing front over the last two games, but I think that changes this week. The strength of the Jets defense is its secondary so if Murray isn’t seeing passing angles opening up, he’s likely to just take off and run. That’s exactly what happened against the 49ers and Chargers. It also helps that the Jets rank 24th in defensive DVOA against the run and have allowed three touchdowns to quarterbacks this season and almost gave up another to Texans QB C.J. Stroud last week.
Verdict: Garrett Wilson +140 | Kyler Murray +240
Eagles vs. Cowboys
I’m not sure how competitive this game is going to be, which makes it difficult to pinpoint value on the Eagles side of the ball.
The top four options for Eagles touchdown scorers are all +125 or lower. That’s no good!
With that, just take QB Jalen Hurts at +110 since he’s rushed for six touchdowns over the last three games. Philly has clearly shown when they’re in short-yardage situations or at the goal line, the tush push is its go-to play.
The value in this game is on the Cowboys side, but I’m skeptical we’ll see more than two passing touchdowns from QB2 Cooper Rush. With no run game to speak of, we’re looking at pass-catchers and ones that do well against man coverage since the Eagles play it at a top-seven rate.
Naturally, WR CeeDee Lamb has the best metrics against any defense, but WR Kavontae Turpin at +900 caught my eye. He leads the Cowboys in target share and aDOT against man while also catching a touchdown in Week 3 against the Ravens' man defense. He could also potentially score in the return game.
If you want to dabble with WR Jalen Tolbert (+500) or newly acquired WR Jonathan Mingo (+1000), those are decent options, too. Turpin is my choice of the three long shots.
Verdict: Jalen Hurts +110 | Sprinkle on Kavontae Turpin +900
