RB Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers
Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Fournette has struggled of late and hasn’t cleared this number — or even 30 yards — over his past three games. Things won’t get easier this week as he faces a Seahawks defense that ranks 10th in DVOA against the run and has been even better of late.
Since Week 5, Seattle has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry to RBs on 1st and 2nd down. We have also seen rookie Rachaad White mix in a bit more on early down work — the talented rookie has out-gained Fournette on the ground in two of the past three games.
Fournette should still see most of the goal line and receiving work, but White could continue to eat into his early down work, which gives Fournette an even lower floor in this market. I’m projecting Fournette's median closer to 38.5 rushing yards and would bet this down to 41.5.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns
Over 3.5 Receptions (-105, BetMGM)
Peoples-Jones has cleared this number in five straight games and this clash against Miami sets up nicely for him.
David Njoku has been ruled out again this week, meaning the Browns' passing attack will once again be heavily concentrated between their top two wideouts (Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones). It’s also a pass-funnel matchup as the Dolphins rank 31st against the pass in DVOA and seventh against the run.
The Browns will likely have to pass a bit more in order to keep up with the Dolphins. I’m projecting DPJ closer to 4.2 receptions and a 61% chance to clear this number.
WR Mack Hollins, Raiders
Under 3.5 Receptions (-125, FanDuel)
With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller on IR, Raiders pass-catchers will see an uptick in opportunities, but in Hollins’ case, his playing time is already maxed out.
It’ll be Keelan Cole and Foster Moreau who get the biggest boost. Hollins will continue to be a downfield threat, but he probably won’t see as many targets in a game the Raiders should be a bit more run heavy as 4.5-point favorites.
He’s managed to catch 68% of his targets this season despite having an aDot of 14.2. He’s due for some catch percentage regression and I’m projecting him closer to 3.0 receptions with a 64% chance of staying under this number.
TE Dawson Knox, Bills
Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-125, DraftKings)
It looks like Josh Allen will attempt to play through his UCL injury, but it’s far from a given he will be active and/or be close to 100%.
The Bills will probably have a more run heavy game plan than usual — including Allen himself — so there may not be as many passing yards to go around.
That’s why this Knox line seems a bit high. He’s stayed under this in 4-of-7 games and his floor is much lower with the uncertainty around Allen. I’m projecting his median closer to 26.5 yards.
