I promise I'm not trying to make you pay attention to Texans vs. Giants more than you have to — unless you're a fan of the surging G-Men.
But as I looked through the Action Labs projections for Week 10, which uses Sean Koerner's expert projections to find value in the player props market, there were two edges that stood out for Sunday's main slate. They happened to be on each side of the matchup at MetLife Stadium.
Wan'Dale Robinson
Over 3.5 Receptions (-113, FanDuel)
Wan’Dale Robinson’s numbers aren’t going to jump off the stat sheet, but he’s clearly a go-to option in the Giants passing game after only four games.
The rookie out of Kentucky has just 12 catches for an underwhelming 107 yards, but he has 15 targets over his last three games. Last week’s loss to the Seahawks was an odd game for New York that saw the offense struggle, with Daniel Jones throwing for just 176 yards and Saquon Barkley running for 53 on 20 carries.
Robinson (three targets) trailed Darius Slayton (six), Saquon Barkley (five) and Tanner Hudson (five) in targets. Barkley’s looks mostly came on checkdowns, while you shouldn’t expect Hudson to be hugely involved every week.
This week against the Texans will bring a different game script for the Giants. They won’t have to keep up with a quality offense like they did last week in Seattle. Instead, New York is likely to set the tempo against a poor Texans team.
Action Labs puts a huge value on this one, projecting Robinson for 4.6 catches against Houston. Getting more than one whole catch on the line, this is an easy pick to make.
Davis Mills
Under 207.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetRivers)
Speaking of the Texans, their offense is awful.
Led by Davis Mills, who is doing Texans fans a huge favor by showing he is not the quarterback of the future, the team is headed toward the No. 1 overall pick.
In Year 2, Mills’ completion percentage is down and his interception percentage is up. He’s thrown eight INTs this season compared to 10 last season, but he still has 146 attempts to reach that double-digit total.
For this bet, we’ll focus on Mills’ incredible lack of efficiency over the past four games. He’s averaging 187 passing yards per game in that span, and that somehow includes a 302-yard performance in a loss to the Raiders. Otherwise, Mills has posted 140, 152 and 154 passing yards in three of Houston’s last four games.
So, you’re probably wondering how this total is so high. Well, I don’t have an answer. The Giants defense ranks 23rd in Pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, but it doesn’t take an elite pass defense to slow Mills down.
Action Labs projects the second-year quarterback for 186.5 passing yards against the Giants, creating a solid value on this prop.
