Every week during the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total — or with player props. This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my player props in the touchdown scorer market for my NFL props in Week 11.
NFL Player Props: Anytime TD Scorers Week 11
| Picks |
|---|
| Ravens vs. Steelers |
| Vikings vs. Titans |
| Browns vs. Saints |
| Jaguars vs. Lions |
| Packers vs. Bears |
| Raiders vs. Dolphins |
| Rams vs. Patriots |
| Colts vs. Jets |
| Falcons vs. Broncos |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers |
| Chiefs vs. Bills |
Ravens vs. Steelers
I know the total is 48, but I expect scoring to be rare in this divisional matchup. Both teams love to run the ball and rank in the top-five in rush attempts per game. They both also rank in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA against pass-catching running backs. And that’s the angle we’re going to play with RB Justice Hill (+475) and RB Jaylen Warren +275).
In seven seasons, Ravens TE Mark Andrews has played the Steelers nine times and hasn’t scored a touchdown. It's worth noting that QB Lamar Jackson only played in four of those games, but the Steelers have only allowed two tight ends to score on them in nine games (three touchdowns total) this season.
For the Steelers, I do think there's an opportunity to ride the Mike Williams train at +375. He caught the game-winning touchdown against the Commanders last week, and the Ravens secondary has been prone to allowing the deep pass with them ranking 28th in defensive DVOA against the deep ball. But the long-shot angle I love would be to throw a dart on TE2 Darnell Washington (+850) since his targets and snaps have continued to increase with Russell Wilson at QB.
Verdict: Justice Hill +475 | Jaylen Warren +275 | Sprinkle on Darnell Washington +850
Vikings vs. Titans
At this point, I’m going to keep betting Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson at +280. He’s done well against both man and zone coverages through two games, and two of his nine targets in Week 10 were in the red zone. That being said, TE2 Josh Oliver can’t be ignored with 13 targets and two touchdowns over the last three games. He may end up taking a backseat this week in favor of Hockenson, but it's worth a sprinkle at +750 to find out.
If the Titans aren’t ready for a Vikings blitz-fest, we could see the panic button pushed early, especially with Will Levis. The encouraging news is that Levis has mostly thrown his interceptions when he wasn’t pressured, which means he might actually have some success chucking the ball downfield. That’s why I want to keep betting Titans WR Calvin Ridley at +275.
Last week, in a tough zone matchup against the Chargers, Ridley scored twice, which was impressive since the Chargers defense ranks in the top five in Pass DVOA. Of course, if you want to dabble on WR2 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at +500 for a long shot, go ahead! He’s played at least 90% of snaps since WR DeAndre Hopkins was traded with 13 targets and two touchdowns.
Verdict: T.J. Hockenson +280 | Sprinkle on Josh Oliver +750 | Calvin Ridley +275
Browns vs. Saints
Through two games, we’re getting the full Jameis Winston experience in Cleveland. He threw three touchdowns in an upset win one week and had three interceptions in the next. You're not really sure what you’ll get out of the Browns offense.
What we do know is that Winston has eyes for two players: WR Cedric Tillman and TE David Njoku. Tillman (+200) leads all Browns with 32 targets and three touchdowns in 2 1/2 games with Winston, while Njoku (+240) has three touchdowns and 28 targets in the same stretch.
The Saints play man defense at a top-eight rate and rank No. 1 in DVOA against opposing WR1s, so I’d side with Njoku since the Saints are 22nd against tight ends.
Another Saints game, another week when I take Taysom Hill to score a touchdown. I’m going to keep going back to this because he's the default the RB2 in this offense. RB Jamaal Williams is out and RB Kendre Miller is on IR, so Hill will get the leftovers if RB Alvin Kamara isn't in the game.
The Browns defense isn’t really scaring anyone this year and has allowed five rushing touchdowns in its last three games. Another aspect about Hill is he’s also getting targets and is averaging 4.8 looks per game. If you looking for a long shot, I wouldn’t mind sprinkling on TE Juwan Johnson at +450 since the Saints receivers room is in shambles.
Verdict: David Njoku +240 | Taysom Hill +180 | Sprinkle on Juwan Johnson +450
Jaguars vs. Lions
Here we go again with another Jaguars game in which I recommend TE Evan Engram.
Personal feelings aside, he’s done well this season against man defenses. He leads the team in target share (29.7%), first-read percentage and yards per route run (2.05). However, the Lions rank second in defensive DVOA against tight ends and QB Mac Jones may have no time to throw. That’s why Engram is +375 so tail with caution.
Well, it’s the “Man Coverage” bowl with both teams ranking in the top-three in man defense rate this season. As I always say when playing the Jaguars, find the pass-catcher who does the best against man and hammer it.
For this matchup, we go to WR2 Jameson Williams. The Lions haven’t played a defense this year that uses man coverage like the Jags since the Rams in Week 1. He scored a long touchdown in that game. It’s also encouraging that the Jaguars also struggle in defending pass (19 touchdowns allowed) and rank 28th in DVOA against the deep ball. If you want to bet Amon-Ra St. Brown at +115, who am I to argue? He’s scored a touchdown in seven straight games, but Williams is who I like to bounce back.
Verdict: Evan Engram +375 | Jameson Williams +220
Packers vs. Bears
Packers WR Jayden Reed has been awfully quiet over the last few weeks, and I think bettors may be forgetting how integral he is to the Green Bay offense.
Coming out of the Packers' bye week, I had expected odds for him around +130 in this matchup since he crushes zone defenses and the Bears play zone at a top-eight rate. At +160, this is the time to jump back on with Reed and expect his usage in the run game to also increase since the Bears run defense is 30th in DVOA against the run.
As harsh as I’ve been about the Bears offense this season, this unit may finally get a lift this weekend after firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The Bears have scored two total touchdowns over their last three games and QB Caleb Williams hasn’t thrown a touchdown in over a month.
For this week, we need to look at the Bears offense as reborn and remove some early season bias while also not going crazy. The Packers play zone at an above-average rate and their underrated secondary is opportunistic with the turnovers with 10 interceptions forced this season.
Look, I’m a sucker for TE Cole Kmet. A tight end that plays over 90% of snaps and runs routes on 80% of dropbacks shouldn’t ever be over +350, but we’re getting a bit of a discount due to the recency bias. The Packers are 28th in defensive DVOA against tight ends this season with three touchdowns allowed to the position.
Kmet is who I would take a chance on at +500, but I’m also going to bet on WR DJ Moore at +320. He leads the team in target share against zone defenses and plays the most snaps of any Bears receiver.
Verdict: Jayden Reed +160 | DJ Moore +340 | Cole Kmet +500
Raiders vs. Dolphins
The natural instinct when betting Raiders touchdown scorers is wanting to bet on TE Brock Bowers (+250). He leads all tight ends in targets and is a matchup nightmare for most defenses, but my sights are set on WR Jakobi Meyers (+290).
Meyers is averaging 7.7 targets per game compared to Bowers 8.1, and they both have the same amount of red-zone targets despite Meyers missing two games. The advantage for Meyers, though, is that he has thrived against both man and zone coverages this season while Bowers has mostly done his damage against zone. The Dolphins tend to play a mix of both, and CB Jalen Ramsey may be limited due to a knee injury, which sets up well for Meyers.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill still having plus odds to score a touchdown is baffling to me. He leads all Dolphins receivers in targets since QB Tua Tagovailoa has returned and even scored a touchdown in the red zone. The Raiders play man defense at an above-average rate, and Hill has scored two touchdowns against man this season. Now, the key caveat here is the weather in Miami is expected to be awful with a lot of wind and rain, so the deep ball may be hindered. Hill, though, is one of a handful of players that can score from anywhere.
Verdict: Jakobi Meyers +280 | Tyreek Hill +140
Rams vs. Patriots
When choosing between WR Cooper Kupp and WR Puka Nacua, it can be difficult to decide because both excel against man and zone defenses. Well, the Patriots play man defense at a top-two rate in the NFL, and Nacua’s receiver metrics against man have been excellent. He's who I’d go with but if you take Kupp at +135, nobody would argue against that pick either.
Also, WR3 Demarcus Robinson might be the sneaky pick since he has four touchdowns against man defense this season and had two red-zone targets in Week 10.
The Patriots have a couple intriguing options, but I keep coming back to TE Hunter Henry. The Rams play zone at a top-six rate, and Henry is one of two Patriots to catch a touchdown against zone this season. Los Angeles also ranks 23rd in DVOA against tight ends with four touchdowns allowed to the position.
Verdict: Puka Nacua +175 | Hunter Henry +300
Colts vs. Jets
On paper, the Jets have a strong defense. The eye test is starting to disprove that. The Jets run defense continues to be abysmal with 14 rushing touchdowns allowed with the RB1 scoring in four straight games. That’s why Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has -120 odds to score and I’d normally recommend looking at the RB2, but Taylor has a clear stranglehold on this backfield with a 3-1 carry ratio compared to RB2 Trey Sermon or RB2 Tyler Goodson.
Coming into this week, I thought we’d still see QB Joe Flacco as starter, but the Colts have announced they’re going back to QB Anthony Richardson. This isn’t good news for Indianapolis' passing game. His lack of accuracy and dependency on running the ball makes all Colts pass-catcher stocks go down. If you do want to go down that road, then consider WR Josh Downs. He leads the Colts in target share against man defenses and saw three red-zone targets in Week 10 with WR Michael Pittman out.
As I’ve said before, though, tread carefully with Richardson at QB. All pass-catchers need to have touchdown odds at +300 or above to make the bet.
For the Jets, you’d want to target a player who excels against zone defense since the Colts play it a top-three rate. Both WR Garrett Wilson and WR Davante Adams have done decently against zone with Adams likely seeing the majority of red-zone opportunities with seven red-zone targets in four games with the Jets.
Instead, I’d rather bank on TE Tyler Conklin at +480. He has done way better against zone than man defenses this year, and the Colts rank 24th in defensive DVOA against tight ends with five touchdowns allowed.
Verdict: Josh Downs +320 | Tyler Conklin +480
Falcons vs. Broncos
I wondered why Falcons WR Drake London opened up at +175 to score a touchdown and then remembered he’s facing the Broncos and he might be in the shadow realm. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain has been a blanket when shadowing top wideouts this season with the likes of Mike Evans, George Pickens, Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins and Jakobi Meyers all combining for 11 catches and only 108 yards with no touchdowns.
If Surtain is matched up with London, you need to pivot elsewhere like WR2 Darnell Mooney at +225. The Broncos play man defense at a top-five rate, and Mooney has nearly identical metrics against man defenses except he only has two touchdowns whereas London has four.
Broncos WR Devaughn Vele (+700) finally got into the end zone in Week 10 against the Chiefs and this is somehow an even better matchup for the rookie. The Falcons play zone at a top-three rate and Vele actually leads the Broncos in target share and yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus. That being said, the Falcons tend to allow outside receivers to do a lot more damage and only four of the 12 touchdowns they’ve allowed to opposing wide receivers have come from the slot.
This means you can still bet on WR Courtland Sutton (+230) and feel OK about it since he leads the team in receiving touchdowns and 13 red-zone targets.
Verdict: Darnell Mooney +225 | Courtland Sutton +230 | Sprinkle on Devaughn Vele +700
Seahawks vs. 49ers
This is a tough one to pick touchdown scorers for the Seahawks because they're facing a defense they tend to struggle against and are welcoming back WR1 DK Metcalf. The receiver has been out for the last three games and while I do expect to make an impact, I rarely like to bet touchdown scorers in their first game back from injury. That's especially the case when we’re not really getting much of a discount since his ATD odds are around +180, and his odds in Week 6 matchup we’re around +150. I’d avoid the Seahawks for the week.
If the 49ers are playing the Seahawks, the list starts and stops with TE George Kittle.
It's a pretty obvious pick, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. Kittle has seven touchdowns this season and leads all tight ends in touchdowns this year. Here, he'll face a Seahawks secondary that plays a blend of man and zone defenses, but Kittle shouldn’t be affected. He leads the 49ers in target share against zone and if Seattle plays man, he leads the team with two touchdown against that coverage. Kittle also scored twice against the Seahawks earlier this season and has historically crushed this matchup with a touchdown in four of his last five games against Seattle.
Verdict: George Kittle +160
Chiefs vs. Bills
The weather is expected to play a role in this game with some wind and rain expected for Buffalo. If Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins is playing, though, I’ll bet him every time in this offense. He had a difficult matchup in last week as he was shadowed by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain, but I think he'll bounce back since the Bills don’t play man coverage at the same rate as Denver. Hopkins has three red-zone targets in three games with the Chiefs and is second on the team in target share against zone coverage behind TE Travis Kelce, and the Bills play zone at a top-nine rate.
I rarely make touchdown bets based on a player’s motivation since this is the NFL and everyone wants to score. Bills QB Josh Allen, though, has more reason than usual to be up for a matchup with the Chiefs. This is a chance for the Bills to gain ground on the Chiefs in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Given the stakes, this may as well be a playoff game so the touchdown odds needed to be treated as such.
By that logic, this is an all-in Allen touchdown game. Last season in the playoffs, although the Bills lost to the Chiefs, Allen had 12 carries. 72 rushing yards and two touchdowns. During the 2023 regular season, he also ran in a touchdown on 10 carries in a 20-17 Bills win at Arrowhead. He’s third among quarterbacks in red-zone carries and has four rushing touchdowns.
I fully expect Allen to lead the charge, calling his own number whenever possible inside the Chiefs' 10-yard line. I’m likely laddering him to two touchdowns at +1000, as well.
Verdict: DeAndre Hopkins +240 | Josh Allen +140
