NFL Player Props | Week 12
Welcome to my NFL player props for Sunday's Week 12 slate, which will be updated throughout Saturday. My first two prop picks hit Patriots vs. Giants and Chiefs vs. Raiders.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson
Longest Reception Under 15.5 (-120)
This is either my third or fourth time attacking this market. It probably doesn’t need much explanation at this point, but Robinson only has two receptions that have cleared this number all season.
Patriots vs. Giants should be a close, low-scoring game in which New York will lean on the run a bit more and won’t need to be too aggressive through the air — not that Robinson gets targeted deep anyway.
There is always going to be massive value as long as books keep floating 15.5 for this market until further notice as I have him staying under 15.5 68% of the time.
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WR Isaiah Hodgins
Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Last week, Hodgins had 22 receiving yards and it was the first time he’s cleared this number since Week 4. This isn’t a matchup where he’s going to be more productive, though. The Patriots use man coverage at the fifth-highest rate, Hodgins has averaged 0.7 yards per route run against man coverage, the fifth-lowest rate among qualified WRs.
It’s also likely going to be a close game script where the Giants will be able to lean on their run game more.
I’m guessing Hodgins' market is a bit inflated here due to Darius Slayton expected to miss the game. I have Hodgins getting a decent boost in playing time as a result, but Sterling Shepard has been Slayton’s direct backup recently, so he’s the WR who will see the biggest boost in playing time.
Plus, Sherpard has commanded a higher target share than Slayton, so Hodgins' target share could take a slight hit with Slayton out.
Either way, I’m projecting his median closer to 15.5 yards and a 61% chance he stays under 20.5.
WR Hunter Renfrow
Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Coming off his season best game of the season (five receptions and 42 yards), I think it’s a good time to sell high on Renfrow.
His playing time has taken a hit over the past few games — only running a route on 43% of dropbacks — with the new coaching regime and Aidan O’Connell taking over as the starting quarterback since Week 9.
While Renfrow has seen a huge increase in target rate, this is a matchup where we could see that dip.
The Chiefs play man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the league; Renfrow has seen his targets per route run fall from 1.25 against zone to just 0.17 against man. He’s only caught one pass against man coverage all season!
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To make matters worse, Renfrow will mainly be matched up with Trent McDuffie in the slot. It’s a brutal matchup where O'Connell may be less willing to force the ball to Renfrow.
Raiders interim head coach Antonio Pierce mentioned that he wanted to get back to their run-heavy ways this week. A run-focused game plan would hurt Renfrow, and it’s going to be tough for him to continue to maintain a high target rate with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer all commanding looks.
I’m projecting Renfrow's median closer to 17.5 with a 62% chance of staying under 23.5 yards. I’m projecting similar value for under 2.5 receptions. If you don’t have access to the receiving yards number/price and the receptions are better at the book you are looking at, you can pivot.
