Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the Anytime TD Scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL props for Sunday Week 12.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers Week 12
| Picks |
|---|
| Chiefs vs. Panthers |
| Vikings vs. Bears |
| Cowboys vs. Commanders |
| Patriots vs. Dolphins |
| Titans vs. Texans |
| Lions vs. Colts |
| Buccaneers vs. Giants |
| Broncos vs. Raiders |
| 49ers vs. Packers |
| Cardinals vs. Seahawks |
Chiefs vs. Panthers
This might be the “get-right” of all “get-right games” for the Chiefs.
After their first loss of the season, where they gave up two rushing touchdowns, they face a Panthers team that shouldn’t offer much resistance defensively. Carolina ranks 30th or lower against both the pass and run in terms of DVOA, which means you can make a case for nearly any Chiefs touchdown scorer and have data to support your conclusion.
That being said, there’s only one Chief I’m interested in and that’s WR Xavier Worthy at +230. He scored last week on the Bills, and while he has six touchdowns this season (four receiving, two rushing), you could argue he should have more if he had a bit more awareness of the sidelines.
Even if he falters, there’s no denying that each week, “The Chefs” cook up something for his breakaway speed. He’s the only Chiefs player to have at least one touch in the red zone in each of the last five games and continuously plays more snaps than DeAndre Hopkins.
I’m not sure how much success the Panthers' passing game will have in this one.
While I want to bet WR Xavier Legette at +450, the Chiefs have typically been exposed over the middle with slot receivers and tight ends. That’s why I’m going to sprinkle on TE Ja'Tavion Sanders at +650 and TE Tommy Tremble at +1200.
It’s not often you can get a starting tight end at +650, and Sanders caught his first touchdown of the season in Germany against the Giants. As for Tremble, he’s off the injury report now, and he could see some end-zone targets and has caught three touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.
Verdict: Xavier Worthy +275 | Sprinkle on Ja’Tavion Sanders +650 | Sprinkle on Tommy Tremble +1200
Vikings vs. Bears
The Bears' biggest defensive strength is defending passes near the line of scrimmage.
Players with lower aDOTs who don't get upfield often tend to struggle against the Bears' zone defense, which is why I’m pivoting to WR2 Jordan Addison at +300. He’s scored a touchdown in two of the last three games while playing the second-most snaps of any Vikings receiver this season despite missing two games. He’s also the only Vikings pass-catcher to score two touchdowns on zone defenses this season.
That being said, WR Justin Jefferson is plus money this week — if you decide to go with the safe play, nobody would critique that bet.
It’s been a rough month for betting on Bears touchdown scorers. While I think they can put up a few points, the Vikings defense could spoil our plans. Minnesota ranks top five in pressure rate and blitz rate so the ball is likely going to need to come out quick.
Naturally, the first two players that fit that description are DJ Moore (+265) and Cole Kmet (+450), who I’ve recommended to score in each of the last four games.
In each of the last four games, the Bears have failed to record a passing touchdown. The Vikings at least rank in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s and against tight ends.
If I had to choose, I'd go with Moore, who's the only Bears player to score against zone defense this season and sees his target rate go up when the Bears face the blitz.
Verdict: Jordan Addison +300 | DJ Moore +250
Cowboys vs. Commanders
The Cowboys offense in 2024 belongs in the depths of hell.
Even with Dak Prescott at under center, touchdowns were few and far between. One of the main reasons is that the run game continues to be an abomination, so defenses load up on the pass.
Now, Dallas faces the Commanders and might be able to get a few explosive plays but, until further notice, all Cowboys TD props under +300 are banned.
If you wanted to go with TE2 Luke Schoonmaker at +450, he could be worth a sprinkle given that he saw 10 targets after TE1 Jake Ferguson went down. The Commanders have allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including three in their last three games. Again, just temper your expectations with Rush.
You could argue the Commanders have the edge at nearly every offensive position in this matchup which, in turn, allows you to justify nearly any player for a touchdown prop (depending on the odds).
The Cowboys rank bottom five in defensive DVOA against the run and the pass but are especially bad against the run, having allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season. Also, RB Joe Mixon scored three times on them last week.
Since that lends itself to a blowout game script, that’s where I’d lean and start looking at the longest odds for a running back like RB3 Jeremy McNichols and sprinkle on him. There's a non-zero chance we see a three-score Commanders lead in the fourth quarter that has them resting starters.
Verdict: Luke Schoonmaker +450 | Sprinkle on Jeremy McNichols +850
Patriots vs. Dolphins
It’s tough to bet a Patriots touchdown scorer in this matchup because you don’t really have much data to hang your hat on.
Sure, you could go with RB Rhamondre Stevenson since he'll get the RB1 role, but the Dolphins defense has been stingy against the run and has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards since Week 6. Outside of Stevenson, I would pass on the Patriots this week.
Another week where Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is plus money to score a touchdown. Last week, he scored late against the Raiders inside the 10-yard line, which is encouraging because it shows that Hill isn’t just going to be targeted on deep routes.
Hill has now scored in back-to-back games and gets to face a Patriots defense that runs man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Hill has historically beaten man defenses like a drum and still leads the Dolphins in target share (30.1%), yards per route run (2.19) and touchdowns (two) against man.
After watching Matthew Stafford and the Rams carve the Patriots up with four passing touchdowns, look for QB Tua Tagovailoa to have some success chucking the football.
Verdict: Rhamondre Stevenson +130 | Tyreek Hill +115
Titans vs. Texans
When betting touchdown scorers against the Texans defense, you need to know three things: They play a lot of zone (at a top-six rate), get a lot of pressure (seventh in pressure rate at 26.3%) and allow a lot of touchdowns to wide receivers (16 — tied for most in NFL).
This means I’m going to bet WR Calvin Ridley (+275) and WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+500). The former is the top target for Will Levis, leads the team in target share against zone defense and caught two touchdowns against another top defense that plays a lot of zone in the Chargers.
As for Westbrook-Ikhine, you almost need to keep riding the hot hand at his price. Sportsbooks will not adjust off his +500 odds despite him catching a touchdown in five of the last six games. A big reason is his target share is super low (11%), but the Titans continue to feature him and he’s played over 85% of snaps in four straight games.
The Texans did everything they could to try and get WR Nico Collins a touchdown in his return, and we all were disappointed when his first touch was called back for a hold in the first half. This is a time where we should go right back to him.
He’s off the injury report and can thrive against both man and zone coverage. The Titans' run defense ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, so I expect the Texans to throw more in this divisional matchup.
Verdict: Calvin Ridley +275 | Sprinkle on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +500 | Nico Collins +120
Lions vs. Colts
It’s the “Man vs. Zone” bowl with the Lions and Colts.
The Lions’ aggressive unit plays man defense at the top rate in the NFL while the Colts play the third-most zone in the league. The Lions scored a touchdown on seven straight drives last week, so it makes sense that all of their skill players have a premium attached to the touchdown odds.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has been feeding bettors all season with touchdown bets as he has one in eight straight games and feasts on zone defense. But you know who else has chopped up zone this season? WR2 Jameson Williams, who we’re going back to at +250.
Williams doesn’t get the target volume like Sun God but he continues to make big plays. He leads the team with three touchdowns against zone this season and has a decent 2.35 yards per route run along with a 15.2 aDOT, per PFF. If you can find St. Brown at plus-odds to score, take it. If not, Williams is a strong alternative.
Joshua Downs continues to be the top receiving option for the Colts, regardless of quarterback.
Downs caught his first TD of the season from QB Anthony Richardson and was +320. This week, he’s around +300. My rule when betting Colts TD scorers with Richardson starting is they need to be +300 or better considering that Richardson will potentially call his own number in the red zone.
I think this is the game where you need to go back to WR Alec Pierce at +450. Pierce will see a lot of one-on-one coverage, and there’s a good chance he can beat his defender down the field for a long touchdown grab, especially since he leads the team in aDOT against both man and zone defenses.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +200 | Alec Pierce +450
Buccaneers vs. Giants
The return of WR Mike Evans to the Buccaneers offense cannot be overstated.
Evans has been a mainstay for QB Baker Mayfield with touchdowns in 15 of 24 regular-season games played. Players coming off an injury can always be a risky endeavor, but Evans is one of the few receivers I’m willing to overlook, especially in this matchup against the Giants, who rank 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass and 31st against opposing WR1s.
The Tommy DeVito era begins again in New York and, frankly, I want no part of it. The Giants already have issues protecting their quarterbacks, and DeVito was sacked 34 times in six starts last season.
If you want to take a flier on WR Wan'Dale Robinson at +480, that’s about as risky as I’d get.
I’d punt on Giants touchdown scorers and wait for a better matchup against the Cowboys in Week 13 on Thanksgiving.
Verdict: Mike Evans +135 | Wan’Dale Robinson +480
Broncos vs. Raiders
It’s difficult to feel great about betting on outside receivers when facing the Broncos. Elite WR1s will enter the shadow realm and be covered by CB Patrick Surtain, who hasn’t let a receiver score on his coverage this season.
That’s why I think we should feel kind of OK betting on WR Jakobi Meyers at +270. He shouldn’t be matched up with Surtain on every snap since he lines up in the slot around 40% of the time and owns an elite 30.1% target share against man defense.
If you're considering TE Brock Bowers at +240, keep in mind that the Broncos rank third in defensive DVOA against tight ends and have allowed just three touchdowns to the position this season.
What’s hilarious about the Broncos' touchdown scorers is QB Bo Nix has thrown for six touchdowns in his last two games to six pass-catchers. Eight Broncos have caught a touchdown this season, which means this is an equal-opportunity offense, regardless of the snap counts.
That’s why I’m passing on WR Courtland Sutton at +175. Instead, we should target a Broncos tight end since the Raiders have given up five touchdowns to the position over the last three games.
Since each Broncos tight end hasn’t really gotten a lot of volume this year, let’s just sprinkle on the longest odds with Lucas Krull. He’s seen the most targets of any Broncos tight end this season and is the only one who hasn’t scored a touchdown this season.
Just know that if you decide to go with Krull, there’s a non-zero chance Adam Trautman or Nate Adkins gets the touchdown instead.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Lucas Krull +1200 | Jakobi Meyers +270
49ers vs. Packers
The 49ers will not be operating at their usual level for this matchup with QB Brock Purdy sidelined and LT Trent Williams questionable.
TE George Kittle and WR Jauan Jennings have decent matchups. Kittle leads all tight ends in touchdowns and red-zone targets and is third in the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line. With the Packers ranking 28th in defensive DVOA against tight ends and Kittle having no real competition at the position, Kittle is a decent bet to score.
Jennings' stock has taken off with back-to-back 11-target games after coming back from injury — he's playing essentially the Brandon Aiyuk role in this offense. The difference is Aiyuk rarely had odds over +200, regardless of matchup. There’s also a strong chance that the Packers might be without CB Jaire Alexander, who missed practice all week.
My biggest issue right now with betting Packers touchdown scorers is QB Jordan Love. His turnovers are starting to become an issue where drives are dying by his arm.
As a result, he’s only thrown two touchdowns over his last three games and fewer than 300 yards each time. Even last year in the playoffs, the Packers could’ve beaten the 49ers, but Love had a couple of costly turnovers.
This game reeks of long-shot touchdown scorers, which is why I’d rather take a swing on WR Dontayvion Wicks at +450, who leads the Packers in target share against man defense and also leads the Packers in touchdowns against zone defense.
Verdict: George Kittle +220 | Dontavion Wicks +450
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The prices for Cardinals touchdown scorers are in a buy-high spot after their most recent wins. I don’t want to keep going back to WR Marvin Harrison Jr., but he’s so elite against man coverage that it’s hard to consider anyone else. He leads the team with a 33% target share against man defense, with three touchdowns and a 13.1 aDOT. Those are elite numbers.
I’ll still ride with Harrison despite facing a Seahawks team that has graded out well when deploying man (fifth in coverage grade, according to PFF). And if the Seahawks play zone, Harrison also leads the Cardinals in touchdowns against that coverage.
WR4 Zay Jones at +850 would be worth a sprinkle as he saw a season high in snaps in Week 10. Outside of Harrison, there isn't much value on Cardinals touchdown scorers.
This is a great game to get back on the DK Metcalf train. He returned from injury last week against the 49ers and had 70 yards on nine targets.
Now, he faces the Cardinals, who play zone at a top-10 rate and that’s where Metcalf can shine. He leads the team in target share (23.1%), aDOT (13.5) and yards per route run (2.14) against zone coverage and should be a bit healthier with another week of practice.
According to Pro Football Focus, Metcalf will have a favorable secondary matchup with CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who grades out poorly in coverage.
Verdict: Marvin Harrison Jr. +185 | DK Metcalf +165
