Favorite Week 12 Picks
Davante Adams
ATD (+120, bet365)
Adams scored twice last week and leads all wide receivers with 10 touchdowns. He has half of those in the Raiders’ last three games.
This week, the Raiders face a Seahawks team that has allowed eight touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Five of those were scored by the opposition’s WR1.
Adams is also third in the NFL with 16 targets in the red zone, trailing only Justin Jefferson and Stefan Diggs. Both of those players had minus numbers attached to them in the Anytime Touchdown market, while Adams has a welcome plus sign.
We’re not getting +140 like we did last week when he scored, but there’s no one I trust to score more than Adams.
Jeff Wilson
2 Touchdowns (+250, BetMGM)
The Dolphins are 13-point favorites, and the potential blowout means there will be plenty of rushing opportunities.
Speaking of running the ball, the Texans can’t stop other teams from doing that effectively against them. Houston has given up an NFL-high 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. The Texans have also allowed opposing RB1s to score more than one rushing touchdown four times this season.
Jeff Wilson has out-snapped and out-touched Raheem Mostert since being acquired at the trade deadline. Both backs have two touchdowns in the two games since the trade, but it looks like Mostert might miss this game.
If it’s a Wilson-led backfield, him scoring twice against Houston is definitely possible if he makes it through the game healthy.
I made this bet at +400 earlier in the week, but it's already way down to +250. I would not bet it any lower than this.
Juwan Johnson
ATD (+475, 0.5 unit, DraftKings)
Johnson has five touchdowns in the last five games and is second on the Saints with nine red-zone targets.
Johnson has become a go-to target for Andy Datlon, especially in garbage time. Three of his five touchdowns were scored in the fourth quarter with the Saints down two scores.
I only bet one-half unit because of the matchup. The 49ers have only allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season and rank No. 1 as a unit on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. That's why these odds are so long for a player who has a clearly successful track record of late.
Week 12 Leans
Tee Higgins
ATD (+150, FanDuel)
Tyler Boyd
ATD (+230, FanDuel)
The Titans run defense is rated as the best in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, and Joe Mixon is out for the Bengals. That leads me to believe Cincinnati’s offensive game plan will be based on its passing game this week.
Ja’Marr Chase is still out, although it sounds like this might be the last week that’s the case. That means more opportunities for the Bengals’ wide receivers.
In the team’s first game without Chase back in Week 8, both Higgins and Boyd found the end zone. That means it’s not inconceivable that both will find the end zone here.
Pick: Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130) |
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Gerald Everett
ATD (+400, PointsBet)
The Cardinals are an auto-fade against tight ends, much like what the Chargers and Eagles were last season. Both of those teams gave up close to one touchdown per game against TEs.
The Chargers have two tight ends to consider here. Obviously, Everett is worth a bet as the starter, but Justin Herbert has thrown 12 career touchdowns to backup tight ends. That makes Tre McKitty worth a look here at +750.
Pick: Gerald Everett Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+370) |
