RB Jeff Wilson, Dolphins
Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120, DraftKings)
Wilson will operate as the lead back with Raheem Mostert doubtful to play because of a knee injury.
Wilson will obviously rack up a ton of yards on the ground against the Texans. That line is set at 80.5, and I'm in line with that. However, there is also some sneaky value on his receiving yards as he will likely dominate passing-down work.
Wilson has seen a target on 26% of his routes since joining the Dolphins in Week 9 and I’m projecting his median closer to 17.5. Every yard in this market is worth quite a bit, so I would only bet it up to 14.5.
TE Greg Dulcich, Broncos
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Dulcich has failed to clear this line in two straight games, but I think this is a good time to buy low on the talented rookie.
Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler have been ruled out, which means the Broncos are low on pass-catchers outside of Courtland Sutton and Dulcich. The recently released Melvin Gordon commanded a target share his replacements will unlikely be able to fully match, which could lead to Dulcich seeing more opportunities.
The Panthers play zone at the ninth highest rate, which will be one of the most zone-heavy defenses Dulcich has faced yet — he has a 0.37 yards per route run against man that goes up to 1.88 against zone.
I’m projecting Dulcich for closer to 42.5 yards and love his upside here.
RB Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Walker’s usage in the passing game has gone up recently — he posted a season-high 73% routes run rate in Week 10.
Coming off the bye, I can see Seattle continuing to use the rookie more through the air and this is a great matchup to do so. The Raiders are last in DVOA against RBs in the passing game and have allowed 14 running backs to clear this number.
I’m projecting Walker’s median closer to 18.5 yards.
TE George Kittle, 49ers
Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Kittle is coming off a massive 4/84/2 performance against a Cardinals defense that's been hashed by opposing TEs (31st in DVOA), but he will have to face a Saints defense that has put the clamps on the position (1st in DVOA).
This is a game where the 49ers will likely play with a comfortable lead and not have to throw too much. I’m projecting Kittle’s median closer to 40.5.
