NFL Player Props Week 13
Welcome to my NFL player props for Sunday's Week 13 slate, which has been updated with all of my picks.
TE Stephen Sullivan
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble are expected to miss this game, which should make Sullivan the main pass-catching TE for the Panthers.
Sullivan has pretty good measurables for a TE drafted in the seventh round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He played for LSU during Joe Burrow’s collegiate prime and actually had more receiving yards (363) than Ja’Marr Chase (313) his freshman season. Sullivan's flashed when given a chance this year, including last week’s diving catch on 4th and 3.
I’m expecting him to run a route on 55-60% of Bryce Young’s dropbacks, which should be enough playing time to get around two receptions.
It’s also a matchup against a Bucs team that just allowed Mo Alie-Cox and Will Mallory to each go for 29-plus yards. Starting LBs Lavonte David and Devin White have been ruled out so maybe Young will be more willing to attack the middle of the field with Sullivan.
I’m projecting Sullivan closer to 15.5 with a 62% chance of clearing this.
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QB Jared Goff
Under 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Goff cleared 4.5 rushing yards in 7-of-17 games last season. This year, he's just 2-of-11, which means he's gone under this number 68% of the time dating back to 2022.
Goff went over in Week 12 against the Packers with nine yards, but he also fumbled three times and lost each of them. The Lions will want him to be a bit more careful this week and only have him run when necessary.
Even if he does sneak past 4.5 during the game, there's potential for kneel-downs at the end of regulation considering the Lions are four-point favorites.
The Saints have allowed quarterbacks to clear their rushing yards prop at a high rate, but QBs who profile closer to Goff have been held in check:
- Ryan Tannehill: five
- C.J. Stroud: two
- Gardner Minshew: three
- Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe: zero (combined)
I'm projecting Goff's median closer to two yards with a 65% chance of staying under.
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RB Raheem Mostert
Longest Rush Over 13.5 (-125)
Mostert thrives in this market; he’s cleared this number in 7-of-11 (64%) games this season.
De'Von Achane (knee) is expected to return, which will obviously eat into Mostert’s workload a bit. However, I'd imagine the Dolphins will be pretty cautious with Achane.
I’ve always viewed Achane as a dangerous weapon in the passing game, so there's a chance he eats into Mostert’s passing down snaps but leaves Mostert with plenty of early down work. Jeff Wilson might also command rushing work, but possibly in short-yardage situations. I still think Mostert is going to see plenty of early down rushes to clear 13.5.
This number is a bit lower than usual because the Commanders have had a pass-funnel defense this year. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass compared to a respectable 12th against the run.
The Commanders have allowed opposing backs to average 4.0 yards per rush from Weeks 1-8 (18th highest), but after trading away their top-two defensive linemen (Montez Sweat, specifically), they have allowed 5.0 yards per rush since Week 9 (sixth highest).
Mostert loves running to the edge and tends to break his biggest runs when doing so. He’s averaging 6.1 Y/A when running to the edge and has the second-most attempts running to that portion of the field. Washington has allowed the seventh-highest Y/A on edge runs (5.7) and the fourth highest (6.9 Y/A) since trading Sweat.
I’m projecting Mostert's median closer to 15 and a 60% chance he clears 13.5.
QB Tim Boyle
Under 180.5 Passing Yards (-115)
On Black Friday, Boyle only had 13 pass attempts entering the fourth quarter — he proceeded to attempt 25 passes in garbage time.
It was clear the Jets were trying to prevent him from dropping back too much until it was absolutely necessary. It was also evident that New York didn't want him throwing downfield as his average depth of target (4.3) was the third lowest of Week 12.
Against Atlanta, it’ll be much easier for the Jets to lean on a run-heavy game plan in what should be a low-scoring and close matchup. If they were to end up in a negative game script, it could be due to Boyle being inefficient and/or responsible for costly turnover(s).
Last week, I thought he had a fairly low chance of being benched in-game, but this week, it’s much higher and would be a sneaky out in the event of a a pass-heavy (negative) game script. This is similar to the Dorian Thompson-Robinson prop a few weeks ago in that regard.
I’m projecting Boyle closer to 164.5 passing yards with a 62% chance of staying under.
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RB James Conner
Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
Conner only had six carries last week thanks in large part to the Cardinals getting blown out by the Rams.
Michael Carter made his Arizona debut and mainly handled garbage-time snaps in the fourth quarter, but there is a chance his role expands going forward as the Cardinals are in evaluation mode for the 2024 season.
The Cards have also been pass heavy since Kyler Murray's return, ranking fourth in early down pass rate in a neutral game script. Last week was an odd game in which Murray only ran the ball once and Rondale Moore, who typically gets 2-3 designed run plays, had zero carries. Even in a more neutral game script, Conner does concede quite a few rush attempts to non-RBs than most workhorse backs.
The Steelers offense was significantly better in their first game without offensive coordinator Matt Canada. I expect them to attack the Cardinals' weak run defense and continue to have more high-percentage throws over the middle of the field — something Canada was unwilling to do. What this will do is allow them to see their time of possession go up. Last week, Pittsburgh led the league with a 62% TOP.
While the Steelers are unlikely to maintain a time of possession rate that high going forward, any improvement there will start to limit the overall plays by the other team, and attacking Conner’s under is one way to invest in that.
I'm projecting Conner closer to 13 rush attempts with a 60% chance of staying under 14.5.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-112)
Bailey Zappe is expected to take over as tank commander for the Patriots this week. While we can’t call it an upgrade — because it's not — there is a chance Zappe can avoid the drive-killing, game-script-flipping turnovers that have plagued New England all year.
Stevenson has 20-plus rush attempts in back-to-back games — both games the Pats lost by less than one score. They are 5.5-point underdogs against the Chargers, so they might be able to keep it close enough to lean on the run again. The Chargers allow the third-most plays per game and opposing running backs tend to see their attempts go up as a result.
The Pats have been the most extreme run-heavy team over the last three weeks, passing on just 40% of early downs when in a neutral game script. There could be heavy rain for most of this game, only making it more likely they continue to lean on Stevenson.
Ezekiel Elliott has been limited all week with a thigh injury. If he’s limited or even ruled out, it will only allow Stevenson to get more early down work. Ty Montgomery and JaMycal Hasty are likely to pick up any passing-down work Elliott leaves behind.
Keenan Allen is also banged up. While I’m assuming both Allen and Elliott suit up and play their normal roles, either player being ruled out and/or limited will only help this market.
All the factors are there for Stevenson to continue to see a big workload. I’m projecting him closer to 16 rush attempts with a 60% chance to clear 14.5.
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RB Devin Singletary
Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Singletary was able to remain as the Texans' lead back following Dameon Pierce’s return last week. Pierce mixed in on early downs and short-yardage work, but Singletary dominated third down and the two-minute offense.
Mike Boone had been operating as the pass-catching back while Pierce was out, but he was a healthy scratch last week and I would assume the plan is to have Singletary dominate passing-down snaps.
Not only have the Broncos allowed a RB to clear this number against them every week, they’ve allowed 16 RBs to clear this against them!
Dalton Schultz being ruled out likely increases the chances of C.J. Stroud targeting Singletary as his safety valve.
I’m projecting Singletary's median closer to 15.5 with a 60% chance to clear 10.5.
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