Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL props for Sunday Week 13.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers Week 13
| Picks |
|---|
| Seahawks vs. Jets |
| Steelers vs. Bengals |
| Colts vs. Patriots |
| Cardinals vs. Vikings |
| Titans vs. Commanders |
| Texans vs. Jaguars |
| Chargers vs. Falcons |
| Buccaneers vs. Panthers |
| Rams vs. Saints |
| Eagles vs. Ravens |
Seahawks vs. Jets
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s stock continues to rise in his second season and over the last three games, he has three touchdowns and 31 targets. The Jets play man defense at a top-seven rate and JSN leads the team in target share and yards per route run against those coverages.
I’d prefer Smith-Njigba over DK Metcalf this week, but wouldn’t fault you for betting Metcalf since he’s the only Seahawks receiver to catch a touchdown against man defense this season.
On principle, you’ll also need to sprinkle on QB Geno Smith to score a touchdown. The Jets have allowed back-to-back games of two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (Anthony Richardson & Kyler Murray) with seven touchdowns given up this season. What’s wild is that those seven touchdowns have been scored just over the Jets’ past six games with the only QB not scoring was CJ Stroud (eight rushes, 59 yards).
I’m not sure what’s more pathetic here: the Jets franchise or sportsbooks pricing their touchdown odds like they’re going to the Super Bowl. The Jets rank bottom-five in points scored per game and a key reason is their run game has been invisible all season and doing the offense no favors. They rank 31st in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns and expect a 40-year-old QB to throw them to victories and, frankly, I’m tired of watching their games this season. It’s exhausting.
Alright, back to touchdowns. If you’re betting a Jets touchdown this week, avoid the running backs and look to WR Davante Adams or WR Garrett Wilson. They’re both around +170 and you know they’ll get a ton of targets. Adams had four red-zone targets in the last game against the Colts while Wilson had two. Since Adams has come to the Jets, he leads the team with 46 targets in five games.
Picking between the two isn’t easy, but when in doubt, go with Rodgers’ bestie.
Verdict: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +200 | Sprinkle on Geno Smith +550 | Davante Adams +170
Steelers vs. Bengals
WR George Pickens (+135) should see plenty of targets as he leads the team in total targets and touchdowns since Russell Wilson was named quarterback. I’d rather bank on some long-shot tight ends and double-stack TE Pat Freiermuth (+360) and TE Darnell Washington (+650).
Freiermuth only has one touchdown since Wilson was named starter, but he has four red-zone targets in those games and plays the most snaps so he should be a top option in the passing game. As for Washington, he pops off the screen with his size and his target rate and snap counts have all increased with Wilson as the starter. It also helps that the Bengals rank 26th in defensive DVOA against tight ends with seven touchdowns allowed.
The Bengals passing offense might be the best thing going in touchdown betting. QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase have connected for five touchdowns over the last two games which is why he’s -120 across the board to score again but in this matchup, I don’t like the Bengals passing game at all. The Steelers defense ranks eighth in defensive DVOA against the pass and only allowed five touchdowns to WRs this season (nine passing touchdowns total) in 11 games.
This isn’t me saying Chase or WR Tee Higgins can’t score because they’ve both crushed man defenses this year and the Steelers run man coverage at the eighth-highest rate. What I’m saying is at -120 and +130, the value is essentially gone for the Chase/Higgins combo.
I still think there’s a Bengals player worth betting to score a touchdown, and that’s TE Mike Gesicki. He’s caught both of his touchdowns on man coverage this season, which the Steelers play a lot of, and is second on the team in yards per route run (2.05) against those coverages. TE3 Tanner Hudson’s snaps have dropped off and TE Drew Sample rarely gets targeted. Only take Gesicki if he’s above +300.
Verdict: Pat Freiermuth +350 | Sprinkle on Darnell Washington +650 | Mike Gesicki +330
Colts vs. Patriots
You could tell me Colts QB Anthony Richardson goes off for 300 passing yards and three touchdowns this weekend against the Patriots and you could tell me he’ll barely complete 50% of his passes and Colts struggle to score 20 points. I lean to the former as Richardson is still running the ball at a decent clip and that should at least unsettle the Patriots defense that ranks bottom-five in defensive DVOA against the run and pass.
Look, regardless of the last stat, we know the rule when it comes to Richardson: pass-catchers need to be at +300 or above to bet, even in a plus-matchup like this because of the variance of outcomes for the Colts passing game. The one receiver who excels against man defenses and also is at +300 is WR Adonai Mitchell.
Mitchell could see a larger role this week with WR Josh Downs out and he has crushed man defenses when given the opportunity with an insane 43.2% target share while also having a 2.86 yards per route run and 12.1 aDOT. These are elite numbers that we can’t ignore, especially if the rookie is going to play more snaps without Downs.
There hasn’t been much to be excited about for Patriots touchdown scorers as no player has really stood out this year as a consistent force. The Colts defense has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season and RB Rhamondre Stevenson is really the only option the Patriots have to move the ball but at +125, you’re playing with fire if the Colts get up early and the Pats ditch the run.
WR Demario Douglas has the best receiver metrics against zone and the Colts play zone at the second-highest rate in the NFL. With the Pats passing game ranking last in passing yards per game and bottom-five in passing touchdowns, though, I’m just going to sit back and bank only on Mitchell to score.
Verdict: Adonai Mitchell +300
Cardinals vs. Vikings
The calling card of the Vikings is they blitz the most in the NFL and they rank second in pressure rate. This is where I get iffy on betting Cardinals touchdown scorers because QB Kyler Murray has had struggles this season when facing blitz/pressure and a big part of his success this year is he’s been the least-pressured QB in the NFL this season. Something has to give.
That being said, if you offer Kyler Murray at +300 or better against any defense, I’m going to take it almost every time. He’s got four rushing touchdowns this season and is nearly matchup-proof because of his ability to get around the edge of the line of scrimmage. It also helps when you have RB James Conner to act as a decoy.
I expect the Cardinals to start fast and not let the Vikings get a lead so quickly which should allow them not to abandon the run game so quickly. If you think the Cardinals go down early, then you should look at Marvin Harrison Jr. at +200. He leads the team in touchdowns against zone defenses and the Vikings have allowed 13 touchdowns to receivers this season and rank 25th in defensive DVOA against WR1.
The more you dig into the Cardinals defense and their weaknesses and cross-reference it with Vikings touchdown scorers, it gets bleak. Both RB Aaron Jones (-135) and WR Justin Jefferson (-105) have the best matchups, but their odds don’t lend themselves to a single bet. WR2 Jordan Addison would be a decent option if he was over +200, although he’s now down to +185 after his recent surge in production.
Unless you want to take a chance on TE T.J. Hockenson at +230 or QB Sam Darnold at +600, I’ll pass on the Vikings this week.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +310 | Marvin Harrison Jr. +200
Titans vs. Commanders
The Commanders pass defense has improved throughout this season, but it still struggles in coverage. Washington has allowed seven passing touchdowns over their last four games so let’s go back to Calvin Ridley (+200) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+300). The former is the top target for Will Levis, leads the team in target share against man defenses while Westbrook-Ikhine is on an insane run with six touchdowns in his last seven games, and all were caught against zone coverages.
The Commanders' group of playmakers is in shambles, with Brian Robinson nursing an injury and Austin Ekeler in concussion protocol. This means Jeremy McNichols will potentially handle RB1 duties, but this might not be the matchup to feel great about betting on the Commanders run game. The Titans rank top-five in defensive DVOA against the run and while they’ve allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season, I was shocked to learn that only three of those are from an opposing RB1 this season.
At this stage, I don’t see any touchdown edges for the Commanders based on the matchup and latest touchdown odds.
Verdict: Calvin Ridley +200 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +300
Texans vs. Jaguars
The Texans passing offense must be foaming at the mouth for this matchup. The Jaguars are ranked last in defensive DVOA against the pass with 23 passing touchdowns allowed. What makes the latter stat kind of funny is there’s only one NFL team to allow more passing touchdowns this season: Houston Texans with 24. Both passing offenses should have success and we want to focus on Texans who do well against man coverage and Jaguars that do well against zone coverages.
For the Texans, the list pretty much starts and stops with WR Nico Collins (+125). He’s got four touchdowns in seven games played (should’ve been five if referees didn’t call holding against Dallas) and leads the Texans in target share and yards per route run against man defenses.
I’m not really breaking new ground here on Collins, but this also means WR2 Tank Dell is in play too. He’s scored both of his touchdowns this season on man coverage and also leads the team in aDOT, which also helps because the Jaguars also rank 31st in defensive DVOA against the deep ball and have allowed a league-leading 52 catches of 20+ yards or more.
The Jaguars are expected to have QB Trevor Lawrence back after missing the last two games which means Jacksonville might have a pulse to actually throw the ball. We can move on from the Mac Jones era and actually feel kind of ok on betting WR Brian Thomas Jr. (+210).
I know TE Evan Engram (+260) technically leads the Jags in target share against zone defense, but the Texans have allowed the second-most touchdowns to WRs this season. Thomas also leads the Jags with three touchdowns against zone. Don’t put that “Evan Engram needs a touchdown” stress in your life. It’s not worth it.
Verdict: Nico Collins +125 | Tank Dell +240 | Brian Thomas Jr. +210
Chargers vs. Falcons
The Chargers put up a good fight against the Ravens, but their passing game let them down with WR Quentin Johnston (+250) dropping passes all over the place. You could argue his stock might be at an all-time low. This is where I see opportunity because Johnston has another great matchup against the Falcons secondary. He leads the NFL with six touchdowns against zone coverages and the Falcons play zone at a top-10 rate.
If I’m betting a Falcons touchdown scorer, the list starts and ends with WR Drake London (+175). He has been unstoppable this season and QB Kirk Cousins routinely targets him in the end zone, which is why he’s got six touchdowns this season (all scored in the red zone) and his 16 red-zone targets are third overall in the NFL.
London is the safer option over WR Darnell Mooney (+185), but it's worth noting that the Chargers are bottom-10 against the deep ball for defensive DVOA and we just watched WR Rashod Bateman score a 40-yard touchdown on this defense last week.
Verdict: Drake London +175 | Quentin Johnston +250
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
I know he didn’t score last week, but we have to keep going back to Bucs WR Mike Evans (+130). He has been a mainstay for QB Baker Mayfield since his arrival with touchdowns in 15 of 25 regular-season games played. He’s also been excellent this season against zone defenses with three touchdowns and 2.15 yards per route run and the Panthers play at a top-seven rate. It’s also worth noting that Evans has crushed the Panthers in his career with eight touchdowns in his last seven games against Carolina.
I wish his touchdown odds were a bit higher, but this is “The Tommy Tremble Game” for me. The Buccaneers rank 29th in defensive DVOA against tight ends this season and have allowed five touchdowns to the position while also allowing the fifth-most yards. Rookie TE Ja’Tavion Sanders is likely out and after he got hurt last week, Tremble played 85% of snaps.
The Panthers passing game has struggled this year against zone defenses so you’re kind of flying blind and banking on a receiver to make a play, which isn’t great when you have Bryce Young at QB. I’d just bank on Evans and Tremble for this one.
Verdict: Mike Evans +130 | Tommy Tremble +525
Rams vs. Saints
I know he doesn’t get the target share like Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but we have to stop pretending like WR DeMarcus Robinson is just a measly WR3. He’s got six touchdowns this season with five of those scored in the four games with Nacua back in the lineup. He’s playing nearly the same amount of snaps as Nacua, and Robinson, like Nacua, has also crushed man coverage this season.
Nacua leads the team in target share and yards per route run against man defenses, but it's Robinson who has finished the job with five touchdowns scored on man coverage. That is tied for the NFL lead with Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase. The Saints play man defense at the ninth-highest rate and they’re coming off a game where they allowed two touchdowns of 30+ yards which lends itself well to Robinson since he leads the Rams in aDOT.
The Saints offense is a tough sell these days with WR Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out. As a result, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is WR1 by default and that is no bueno. If you wanted to take a swing on TE Foster Moreau at +400 since he plays over 80% of snaps and leads all Saints TEs in red-zone targets.
Still, you’re playing with fire trying to figure out which Saint will score this week and the Rams play zone at a top-five rate and Moreau hasn’t done anything against zone defenses this season. I’ll pass on New Orleans for Week 13.
Verdict: DeMarcus Robinson +275
Eagles vs. Ravens
Regardless of how you feel about 49ers–Bills, this is the heavyweight matchup of the week. The Ravens and Eagles have stood strong on their commitment to running the ball and that’s why both teams rank one and two in rushing attempts per game, rushing yards per game is in the top-five in total rushing touchdowns. That’s why RBs Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts all have minus odds to score a touchdown in this game. Well, something will have to give because while they both run the hell out of the ball, they both also defend the run well, ranking in the top-10 in defensive DVOA against the rush.
Instead, we pivot to pass-catchers because these teams can’t solely rely on the run and the one player that immediately stands out is Eagles WR Johnny Wilson at +1000. With DeVonta Smith likely out, Wilson will step into a bigger role and he sees his season-high in snaps in both weeks when Smith didn’t play. He’s a big target in the end zone for Hurts to find and outside of Brown and Smith, he’s the only Eagles player to score on man coverage this season.
If you want to bet WR A.J. Brown (+125), I wouldn’t be against it because he has historically crushed man coverages and the Ravens have allowed the most touchdowns to receivers this season (16). At +125 odds, I’d rather just sprinkle on Wilson at +1000.
For the Ravens, there’s really only one player that fits the top criteria and that’s WR Zay Flowers (+150). He leads the team in snaps, route participation and has the best receiver metrics against man defenses like target share and yards per route run, but the problem is the consistency hasn’t been there for touchdowns. Only four this season, which is third on the Ravens.
You’d probably be better served just taking someone like WR Rashod Bateman at +275 and hope he can get behind the man coverage. Even at those odds, though, it’s a tough sell. I think if you really want to have fun, just take a sprinkle on WR Nelson Agholor at +900. Both of his touchdowns this season and all five of his touchdowns in 2023 were scored on man defenses and the Eagles run man defense at a top-10 rate. Obviously, it’s a “Revenge Game!!” angle, too, since it's his first game playing against the Eagles since he left in the 2020 season.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Johnny Wilson +1000 | Sprinkle on Nelson Agholor +900
