NFL Week 13 gets started on Thanksgiving with a trio of games, followed by a Black Friday game the next day. I have NFL player props to target for all four games.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 13 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more NFL Week 13 prop picks as we progress through the holiday games and into Sunday.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 13
- TE Cole Kmet Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
- LB Brian Burns Under 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-110 at BetMGM)
- CB Jalen Ramsey Under 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-110 at BetMGM)
- WR DeAndre Hopkins Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bears vs. Lions Player Props: Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
We cashed on Kmet's over 2.5 receptions last week when he ended with seven because I liked his upside against the Vikings.
However, Kmet's target share has been really inconsistent this year and this is a tougher matchup for him.
The Lions rank first in DVOA against tight ends, allowing the lowest yards per attempt to the position, and only three tight ends have cleared this number against them this year.
A huge reason for this is that the Lions use man coverage at the highest rate in the league. That means you typically get safeties Brian Branch or Kerby Joseph locked onto opposing tight ends.
Linebacker Alex Anzalone was the best Lions defender for opposing teams to target when he was covering the tight end, so the fact that he's on IR may actually make this matchup tougher, and the other linebackers have been better in coverage.
Kmet is also the Bears' pass-catcher who has seen the biggest dropoff in yards per route run against man coverage (nearly a full yard lower at -0.8), so he gets the biggest hit of the group here.
With the wide receiver trio playing at a high level right now and Caleb Williams using his legs more, it'll make it easier to avoid too many targets going Kmet's way on Thursday.
I'm projecting his median closer to 28 yards and give him around a 61% chance of staying under 33.5.
Also of note: I would pivot to under 3.5 receptions (anything -120 or better) if his yardage dips to 31.5 or lower.
Giants vs. Cowboys Player Props: Brian Burns Tackles + Assists
This isn't a number Burns typically clears as he's stayed under this 72% of the time, and that's despite having a fairly good schedule for tackle opportunities for an EDGE rusher.
The Cowboys are a below-average matchup for EDGE rushers, too, and Burns has stayed under this 83% of the time against teams that are below-league-average in tackle opportunities for EDGE rushers.
Plus, Cooper Rush is pretty good at avoiding sacks. He gets rid of it quickly and does a good job of avoiding sacks when he's under pressure. He's also not a threat to scramble, and the Cowboys run inside the tackles at the highest rate in the league. Burns will have less of an opportunity to make a tackle on those types of runs.
As if this prop couldn't get any better, this game is being played at Jerry World, which has the stingiest scorekeeper in terms of dishing out assists. Maybe it's because the sun gets in their eyes?
I'm projecting Burns closer to 3.8 tackles on Thursday and give him around a 65% chance of staying under 4.5.
Dolphins vs. Packers Player Props: Jalen Ramsey Tackles + Assists
Ramsey typically stays under this number and has done so 64% of the time this season, including 75% of the time when facing teams that are below the league average in tackle opportunities to cornerbacks. On Thursday night, he faces a Packers team that provides the fewest tackle opportunities to cornerbacks in the league.
That's because Jordan Love tends to spread it around. He also tends to throw downfield at a high rate, which brings safeties into play and also leads to a lower completion percentage.
Additionally, the Packers have been more run-heavy lately. Josh Jacobs runs inside at one of the highest rates in the league, which lowers the chances for Ramsey to be in on run plays.
Ramsey will likely be on either Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks for most of the game. Both are downfield threats, and with Kendall Fuller expected to miss the game, Love will probably want to focus on targeting the side of the field that Ramsey isn't on.
I'm projecting Ramsey closer to 3.8 tackles on Thursday night at Lambeau Field, and give him around a 65% chance of staying under 4.5.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Player Props: DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards
Hopkins will be key for the Chiefs in the playoffs and in their quest to three-peat. But they've been pretty cautious with his playing time since acquiring him from Tennessee.
Hopkins has seen his routes run go down for four straight games now, and while I think that number has probably bottomed out and expect it to go up from here, he will still be out there for roughly half of Patrick Mahomes' drop-backs.
The key here is that I think the number of drop-backs will be fewer on Friday against the Raiders. I expect the Chiefs to be more run-heavy, particularly with Isiah Pacheco expected to return to action.
Likewise, the Raiders have really struggled against tight ends this season, so there's a good chance the duo of Travis Kelce and Noah Gray will be part of the focus of the passing game.
Hopkins will still draw a handful of targets, of course, but it's unlikely he will be able to maintain the 81% catch rate he's seen since joining the Chiefs when he's had a 65% expected catch rate, according to NextGenStats.
I'm projecting Hopkins' median closer to 36.5 yards on Friday and give him around a 58% chance of staying under 41.5 yards.
