For Week 13's early slate on Sunday afternoon, I have an under that you'll probably be excited to bet and an over that the numbers show no-brainer value on betting.
Using Sean Koerner's projections on Action Labs, I'm 11-3 on my NFL player props write-ups since Week 11's Monday Night Football matchup. Data doesn't lie.
Check out the Russell Wilson and Olamide Zaccheaus picks for Sunday below.
Russell Wilson
Under 222.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
The Broncos are struggling mightily on offense, in case you haven’t heard, and they get a matchup against the Ravens’ eighth-ranked pass defense, according to DVOA, this week.
A total this low would’ve been unthinkable for Wilson before the season, but he’s gone under it four times in 10 games this season, including last week against the Panthers.
You might be thinking, “Well, Matt, I expect the Broncos to be playing from behind against a Ravens team that generally thrives in the first half. That means they’ll have to throw the ball a lot in the second half.” Well, last week, Wilson threw for only 142 yards against the Panthers in a game that Denver lost by 13.
The projection on this presents a clear edge, as well. Wilson is projected for just 193.5 passing yards by Action Labs.
Olamide Zaccheaus
Over 2.5 Receptions (+130, BetMGM)
This is another noteworthy edge. Zaccheaus is projected for three catches on the dot, and we’re getting over 2.5 receptions at +130 over at BetMGM, as of Saturday afternoon.
Without Kyle Pitts, it would make sense for Zaccheaus to take on a larger role in the Falcons' offense. Don’t expect Parker Hesse or MyCole Pruitt to step into the role as starting tight end and suddenly produce when Pitts couldn’t.
Zaccheaus has gone over this line just four times this season, but he has played at least 70% of snaps in each of the last five weeks. Last week against the Commanders, he had five catches on eight targets for 91 yards.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 16th against the pass and eighth against the run. I don’t expect a Marcus Mariota-led offense to suddenly shift to a pass-heavy approach, but an aerial attack may be the way to go against the Steelers.
