NFL Week 13 has arrived, and I have three NFL player props locked in for the 13th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 13 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 13 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 13
- RB Tyler Allgeier Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- S Jessie Bates III Under 6.5 Tackles (-120)
- RB Jaylen Warren Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- RB Cam Akers Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- LB Frankie Luvu Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (+100)
- LB Tyrice Knight Under 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-110)
- LB Quincy Williams Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-135)
Chargers vs Falcons Player Props: Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards
The market is down on Allgeier after he failed to see a single rush attempt in Week 11 before Atlanta's Week 12 bye.
However, that was entirely due to game script as the Falcons were blown out 38-6. While the Falcons are 1.5-point dogs here, I think they are more likely to cover/play with the lead than the market is factoring in, which would help Allgeier’s expected touch count.
It’s also a matchup he should thrive in as the Chargers struggle defending outside runs, allowing an explosive rush 21% of the time (most in the league). Allgeier runs to the outside at the fourth-highest rate among qualified RBs.
The Chargers have a ton of injuries that should make this matchup even easier: LB Denzel Perryman (out), S Alohi Gilman (out), LB Daiyan Henley (questionable), CB Cam Hart (out).
I'm projecting Allgeier closer to 31 rushing yards with around a 61% chance to clear 24.5.
Chargers vs Falcons Player Props: Jessie Bates III Tackles
Bates is an excellent safety, but fading his tackle market is hardly me saying I’m fading him necessarily.
He gets a handful of tackles every game, but this isn’t a number he typically clears — he’s stayed under this number 73% of the time this year.
He had 10 tackles last week, but that was against a Broncos team that has provided the second-most tackling opportunities for safeties. The Chargers offer the fifth-fewest tackling opportunities to safeties, so this is a much tougher matchup.
Bates stayed under this number 80% of the time when facing a defense that allows below-average tackle oppurtunities to his position.
I’m projecting him closer to 5.9 tackles and around a 62% chance to stay under 6.5.
Steelers vs Bengals Player Props: Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
This is a sneaky spot for Warren as he’s going to see an increase in usage if the Steelers get into a trailing game script.
The Steelers have trailed just 32% of the time in games Warren has played this year, but as 2.5-point 'dogs, they are expected to be playing from behind 45% of the time. Therefore, we have a better path to see him closer to his ceiling when it comes to his snap/routes run rate.
I'm projecting his median closer to 18.5 receiving yards with about a 61% chance to clear 14.5.
If you only have access to 15.5 or more, I would pivot to receptions at over 2.5 if it’s anything below -115. That’s about the breaking point where it would make sense to pivot to his receptions over.
Cardinals vs Vikings Player Props: Cam Akers Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones was knocked out of the Vikings' Week 10 game due to a chest injury, which led to Akers seeing double-digit carries in Weeks 10-11.
However, Jones appeared to be closer to 100% as he dominated snaps last week with a 79% snap rate (third highest of the season).
The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites and are expected to play with the lead 46% of the time. However, they’ve led 63% of the time this season, which means we could see them be in a more pass-heavy game script than usual (and a more competitive game in general). That means more work for Jones — not so much for Akers.
There are a ton of underlying factors that can impact Akers' outlook and cause him to go way over or under this number, but I’m projecting his median closer to 17.5 rushing yards while factoring everything in. There's around a 62% chance he stays under 22.5.
Titans vs Commanders Player Props: Frankie Luvu Tackles + Assists
I realize it’s no fun to take the under an exciting player like Luvu, but that’s probably why this line is inflated.
Let me start with the bad: The Titans are a decent matchup for LBs as they’ve allowed the 11th-most tackles to the position.But Luvu has faced a very easy schedule for a LB in terms of potential tackle opportunities, so he’s not really getting much of a boost here from that.
He’s also stayed under this number 75% of the time!
I realize he’s cleared this in two straight games, but it’s forcing books to float this number out there as a result. He’s faced the Steelers, Eagles and Cowboys, which is a dream three-game stretch for a linebacker.
The Commanders have allowed 30.3 rushing attempts and 18.3 completions per game, but they are only expected to face around 27.5 rushes and 17.5 completions, meaning there should be fewer tackles to go around than usual.
I’m projecting Luvu closer to 6.7 tackles with around a 63% chance to stay under 7.5 — getting +100 here is great.
He’s going to get a handful of tackles and his most likely range is 6-7 tackles, which means we could be freaking out over some assist they gave out and hope for a stat correction or something. But that’s why we love tackle props.
Seahawks vs Jets Player Props: Tyrice Knight Tackles +Assists
Knight has stepped up as Seattle's No. 2 LB after the Seahawks moved on from Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker. He has cleared this number in three of five games and has been very efficient when it comes to racking up tackles.
However, he’s had one of the easiest schedules possible over that five-game sample and benefited with a +0.6 boost in tackles per game, so it’s not surprising that he’s cleared this 60% of the time.
He gets his toughest test yet against a Jets defense that has provided the fourth-fewest tackle opportunities per game.
Knight tends to come off the field in passing situations and he should play around 80% of snaps here. So he could see less playing time in a trailing game script.
The Seahawks are 4-1 in the five games Knight has played more of a full-time role, so his floor could be lower than we realize in a trailing game script. This game is a pick 'em so we have a 50% chance we do see a rare trailing game script for Knight.
I'm projecting him closer to 7.8 tackles with around a 61% chance to stay under 8.5.
Seahawks vs Jets Player Props: Quincy Williams Tackles + Assists
This number is a bit of a head-scratcher considering Williams has stayed under 7.5 at a 64% clip. That’s despite having a fairly good linebacker schedule.
In the four games in which he’s faced an offense that provides below league average tackle opportunities for LBs, Williams has stayed under. The Seahawks have provided the fewest tackles opportunities for LBs this year, making this the worst matchup possible.
Another interesting play is Jamien Sherwood Under 8.5. Sherwood has been C.J. Mosley's main replacement, but there is a chance Mosley returns on Sunday.
Taking that now could be a bit risky considering Mosley may end up sitting. But if Mosley is ruled active and they are still offering Sherwood at 8.5, the under would be a great play and not even impact the Quincy prop at all.
I’m projecting Williams closer to 6.3 tackles with around a 68% chance to stay under 7.5
