NFL Player Props Week 14
Welcome to my NFL player props for Sunday's Week 14 slate, which will be updated throughout Saturday with all of my picks.
RB Joe Mixon
Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Rookie running back Chase Brown only had two rush attempts on the season heading into Week 13. He was given extensive work on early downs on Monday Night Football and cashed in with a solid 9/61/0 rushing line against the Jags. There’s a chance the Bengals continue to give him more early down work, which would come at Mixon's expense.
Mixon ended up seeing a season-high 69% route participation, so despite the decrease in playing time on early downs, he was even more involved in the passing game than usual.
That’s going to hurt his upside in the rushing yards market, especially considering the fact that he is starting to see eight-man-plus boxes at a much higher rate without Joe Burrow at quarterback. He only saw a stacked box on 18% of his attempts with Burrow under center — that's ballooned to 44% with Jake Browning.
The Colts' run defense has a been a bit shaky of late, but they will be welcoming back DT Grover Stewart from suspension. Indianapolis has allowed 4.2 yards per rush with Stewart on the field compared to 4.9 yards per rush when he isn't. His return should give their run defense a much-needed boost.
I’m projecting Mixon closer to 58.5 yards with a 60% chance of staying under 64.5.
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RB David Montgomery
Longest Rush Under 15.5 (-125)
While Montgomery has broken off a couple of long runs (42, 75 yards) this season, he’s only cleared this number on 5-of-151 attempts (3.3%).
This is a brutal matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate (2.2%) — adding Montez Sweat has only made their run defense stronger.
Hurting Montgomery will be the absence of center Frank Ragnow. Montgomery has rushed 141 times with Ragnow on the field and averaged 4.9 yards per rush on those attempts. He’s rushed 10 times for 14 yards (1.4 yards/rush) without Ragnow on the field.
Colby Sorsdal has struggled in his rookie season and may have to play RG with Graham Glasgow sliding over to center. I would imagine this will make it that much tougher for Montgomery to break a long run.
I’m projecting his median closer to 13.5 with a 62% chance he stays under 15.5.
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