T.J. Hockenson
ATD +190 (FanDuel)
First of all, this is a #RevengeGame.
Hockenson has 40 targets in five games with the Vikings, for whom he’s played 85% of snaps. He has just one touchdown, but he’s faced tough matchups like the Bills, Cowboys, Commanders and Jets.
I’m all-in on his ranking as a top-five tight end in fantasy this week, though.
The Lions have allowed eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Evan Engram found the end zone against them for the Jaguars last week.
If there’s any player out there who’s built to exploit the Lions defense, it’s Hockenson.
Garrett Wilson
ATD +240 (bet365)
Elijah Moore
ATD +550 (FanDuel)
For these Jets receivers, I’m only playing one-half unit.
We’re going back to this because it was almost bad luck that one of them didn’t score last week against the Vikings. The Jets had seven trips to the red zone in that loss.
Wilson has been a red-zone machine, regardless of who’s been playing quarterback for the Jets. He ranks eighth in the NFL with 17 red-zone targets.
Moore was a victim of Zach Wilson. He has played more than 65% of snaps in the two games with Mike White as the starting quarterback, and he’s caught a touchdown in four of the six games that White has started in his career.
The Bills secondary has given up 12 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Five of those 12 have gone to slot receivers, a role Moore has occupied over the last few weeks. Last week against Minnesota, 40 of his 58 snaps were in the slot.
Pick: Elijah Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550) |
Joe Burrow
ATD +600 (FanDuel)
As is the case for Wilson and Moore, I’m only playing one-half unit on Burrow.
Burrow has five rushing touchdowns this season and 20 red-zone carries. Both are third in the NFL among quarterbacks.
The 20 red-zone carries are more than Josh Allen and the same as Justin Fields, but we’re getting him at a much, much higher number than both of them. Part of why is Burrow’s sneaky mobility. He isn’t as fast as Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, but he’s the new Ryan Tannehill in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer world.
Burrow is facing the Browns, whose run defense simply is not good. Cleveland has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, which are the third most in the NFL. The Browns have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in all but one road game this season. That one was last week against the Texans, against whom Deshaun Watson made his season debut and Cleveland scored three touchdowns between defense and special teams.
I don’t get too caught up in home/road splits for quarterbacks rushing for touchdowns, but it’s worth noting that Burrow’s last three TDs on the ground came at home.
This number is as low as +245 at other sportsbooks, according to our Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds tracker, so jump on it at FanDuel.
Pick: Joe Burrow Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+600) |
