RB Zonovan Knight
Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-113; FanDuel)
Knight dominated early down work while Michael Carter handled every third down and two-minute drill snap last week. It’s going to be difficult for Knight to command many targets if that type of usage holds.
Plus, Zach Wilson has only targeted his running backs on 20% of his attempts this season, compared to a 25% rate from Joe Flacco and MikeWhite. I’m projecting Knight’s median closer to 10.5.
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WR Michael Gallup
Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115; DraftKings)
James Washington returned to action last week and was mainly used in 11 personnel. Every single one of those snaps came at Gallup’s expense.
So if his playing time goes up this week, we could see Gallup’s route run % dip into the 70-80% range. I’m not projecting T.Y. Hilton to play, so any snaps he gets will be icing on the cake.
Gallup will mainly be matched up with Tyson Campbell, who is having a great season, only allowing 0.78 yards per route covered. This is also a matchup that sets up nicely for CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz.
I’m projecting Gallup’s median closer to 34.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s held under that.
RB Joe Mixon
Under 3.5 Receptions (-140; FanDuel)
Mixon returned to action last week and dominated early down work, but it was Samaje Perine who handled most of the third-down snaps.
It’s going to be tough for Mixon to clear this if that trend holds, especially against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the third-lowest target rate to RBs and has only allowed three backs to clear this number all season.
It sounds like Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are expected to play, so I’m locking this in now. I project a 64% chance Mixon stays under.
