NFL Week 15 has arrived, and I have four NFL player props locked in for the 15th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 15 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 15 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 13
- Patrick Mahomes Under 247.5 Passing Yards (-115; BetMGM)
- Tank Bigsby Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- Brandin Cooks Under 2.5 Receptions (-110; BetMGM)
- Kendall Fuller Over 2.5 Tackles + Assists (-115; DraftKings)
- Frankie Luvu Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-120; DraftKings)
Chiefs vs Browns Player Props: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
The number for this prop is plummeting because the weather report is showing a potentially ugly mix of rain and wind. This should also be a game where the Chiefs lean more on the run.
Chiefs LT D.J. Humphries has been ruled out and I’m expecting Mahomes to face a ton of pressure when he drops back against Myles Garrett. Mahomes has struggled under pressure this season, averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt compared to 7.4 YPA from a clean pocket.
He also scrambles at a higher rate and I think we could see that in sloppy conditions.
I'm projecting Mahomes closer to 235.5 passing yards. When it comes to passing-yard projections, they have a wide range of outcomes so it’s tougher to find a huge edge.
I just think this one is a bit sneaky due to the weather and expected pressure splits from Mahomes. The Chiefs should be a bit more run heavy with Isiah Pacheco closer to 100%.
Jets vs Jaguars Player Props: Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards
Bigsby reasserted himself as the lead back for the Jaguars last week (on early downs), with Travis Etienne handling more of the passing-down work. This is excellent news for Bigsby and I want to invest in his rushing upside.
His rushing attempts prop is at 15.5, but I think it should be closer to 14.5 — and I’m still showing quite a bit of value on his over in his yardage market.
Bigsby has been one of the most efficient RBs in the league — his +1.2 rushing yards over expected per attempt ranks fourth (according to NextGenStats). He also leads the league with 4.4 yards after contact per attempt.
The Jets have struggled on inside runs this year, allowing the fifth-highest yards after contact on inside runs. Look for Bigsby to literally tank his way through the Jets defense. I also think the Jags can keep the game close enough to provide him with a bigger workload than usual.
I'm projecting Bigsby closer to 58.5 rushing yards with around a 62% chance he clears 51.5.
Cowboys vs Panthers Player Props: Brandin Cooks Receptions
This is another game that could feature rainy conditions. It’s also between two bad teams who may be more run heavy as a result.
The Panthers have generated pressure at the lowest rate in the league; Cooks' target rate has doubled when Cooper Rush has been under pressure the last two weeks. Therefore, Cooks could be hurt by the Panthers' inability to create pressure.
Cooks still should see a handful of targets, but he tends to see low-percentage targets, with his expected catch rate at 48% (according to NextGenStats).
I’m not interested in fading his receiving yards because he could easily clear it with two catches. I'm projecting Cooks closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 2.5.
Dolphins vs Texans Player Props: Kendall Fuller Tackles + Assists
Fuller, who returned from a concussion last week, has only played seven full games this season. He’s had a league-average schedule for a CB in those games, but he has still managed to clear this number 63% of the time.
He gets his best matchup of the season against the Texans, who rank fifth in tackle opportunities provided for CBs.
He will be guarding Nico Collins and Tank Dell for most of the game and will be involved in Joe Mixon's outside runs that go toward Fuller’s side. Mixon runs outside at the seventh-highest rate among qualified running backs and Fuller has been very good in run defense this season.
I’m projecting Fuller for a full tackle more than this and around a 63% chance he clears 2.5.
Commanders vs Saints Player Props: Frankie Luvu Tackles + Assists
Despite having a fairly good schedule for a LB in terms of expected tackle opportunities, Luvu has only cleared this number 23% of the time this year.
This is another solid matchup against the Saints, who have provided the sixth-most tackle opportunities for LBs. However, it’s not that much of a boost compared to his schedule to date.
Taysom Hill on IR probably lowers the Commanders' expected tackle opportunities for LBs, and Jake Haener getting his first career start likely means there will be fewer tackle chances in general.
Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Chinn typically handle most of the rushing tackles, with Luvu mixing in behind them. However, what makes Luvu so unique is that he tends to rush the passer at a high rate. He’s the only off-ball LB with 100+ pass rushes this season.
Typically, he operates as a LB on early downs and rushes the passer as an edge rusher at a much higher rate on third downs. Luvu has eight sacks on the season, but his tackle rate is much lower (7% of plays) as an edge rusher and 11.4% as a LB.
I think we see him rush at a higher rate this game considering there could more third downs with Haener under center, leading Washington to blitz at a higher rate. Plus, the Commanders have a shutdown CB in Marshon Lattimore (making his debut), which should only help boost their expected blitz rate.
I'm projecting Luvu closer to 6.7 tackles and around a 63% chance to stay under 7.5.
