Using Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's player prop projections, I've been thriving in the player prop market.
These three picks are just a taste of the edges their numbers are showing this week. Check out Action Labs for even more.
D'Andre Swift
Under 3.5 Receptions
Swift played 51% of offensive snaps in Week 13, only to see nine touches on 36% of snaps last week. In his last six games, Swift has played 36% or fewer snaps five times.
Since his return from injury before Week 8, Swift is averaging 3.3 receptions and 4.7 targets per game. Koerner projects him for 2.9 receptions and Raybon 2.8 for this game.
The Jets rank in the middle of the NFL with 66 receptions allowed this season, but the game script in this one is what’s concerning about Swift’s receiving workload.
The Lions’ last five games have seen at least 49 points scored. Chances are that won’t be the case with Zach Wilson starting for the Jets. This isn’t going to be a typical shootout that the Lions have played throughout the season. It’ll be the kind of matchup that New York will thrive with.
Parker Hesse
Under 7.5 Receiving Yards
This one is fun. Raybon is projecting Hesse for 2.1 receiving yards in this game.
Since Kyle Pitts was shut down for the season, Hesse has played more than 60% of snaps in the Falcons’ last three games. He’s gone over this total twice in that span.
In those three games, Hesse has two receptions on three targets for 25 yards. Basically, we’re rooting for him to be held without a catch, which has happened to him three times this season when he’s played 68% of snaps or more.
With a clear edge in the numbers and an otherwise healthy Falcons offense, it shouldn’t be expected that Hesse plays a significant part. It’s totally reasonable to bet on him to be held catchless. Heck, he’s had one reception and gone under this total twice this season.
Hunter Henry
Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
This matchup is a good one for Henry as the Raiders rank 26th in DVOA against tight ends.
Simply put, volume is the concern here. Henry is averaging 3.2 targets and 2.2 receptions per game this season. He has alternated going over and under this total ever week since Week 8.
Last week, against a Cardinals defense that entered the game having allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, Henry caught all three targets for 70 yards.
Henry only played 66% of snaps last week in a close game script against Arizona, and that’s where he has been since that aforementioned Week 8.
Koerner projects Henry for 24.4 receiving yards, while Raybon has him pegged for 27.4, giving this a clear edge.
Pick: Hunter Henry Under 33.5 Receiving Yards |
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