Week 17 offers a smorgasbord of value in the market for NFL player props. Our expert projections from Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon are signaling edges across both Sunday slates, as well as the two primetime games.
For this week, I selected props from two big names in the fantasy world this week, since managers who have Isiah Pacheco and DK Metcalf might be relying on them for a championship in Week 17.
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NFL Odds & Picks
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Both Koerner and Raybon are projecting Pacheco for 1.1 receptions, and we’re getting a plus-money number on the under at both BetMGM and DraftKings.
Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ lead back for their last seven games, getting at least 13 carries in every game. He’s averaging 15.6 rush attempts per game, and he’s gaining an average of 4.94 yards per carry.
In the receiving game, though, Pacheco is not the Chiefs’ lead back. That distinction belongs to Jerick McKinnon, who has 30 receptions in Kansas City’s last seven games. He has upped his game with 18 catches in the last three games.
Pacheco has just eight receptions in his last seven games, going under this total five times in that span. The only two times he went over this total saw the games have 51 and 56 points scored. There were two games in this seven-game span that saw Pacheco still go under, though.
This game against Denver is not going to see that many points scored unless Russell Wilson wakes up from his 16-week stretch of dismal play. The Broncos just fired their head coach, which could light a fire under the offense, but it’s unlikely this is a shootout.
Both Koerner and Raybon project Pacheco to go under his receiving yards total, as well, if the receptions total isn't available.
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Both Koerner and Raybon are projecting Metcalf for just below this 5.5 total, and we’re also getting plus money on this over with FanDuel offering +114.
Metcalf has been especially impressive since the Seahawks’ Week 11 bye week. In the five games since, he has gone over this total four times. Metcalf is averaging 7.6 receptions on 10.2 targets in that span.
The Seahawks were without Tyler Lockett for only one of those games. He has also been a target monster since the bye week, averaging 9.3 targets per game in his four appearances since Seattle’s bye. That means Metcalf’s target share won’t be affected too much.
What will help Metcalf’s target share is that Marquise Goodwin is out for the rest of the regular season, having been placed on injured reserve on Saturday. That leaves Metcalf as the Seahawks’ go-to vertical threat in the passing game.
This is a difficult matchup for the Seahawks, who face a Jets defense that ranks fifth against both opposing teams’ Nos. 1 and 2 receivers this season. New York is still in the playoff hunt because of its defense, which features two elite cornerbacks in rookie Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
Still, Seattle’s best way to move the ball is through the air, and facing a good defense hasn’t stopped Geno Smith from targeting Metcalf.
Metcalf has gone over this total against the 49ers, Buccaneers and Broncos this season, along with a host of average/below-average units.
Pick: DK Metcalf Over 5.5 Receptions |
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