We have somehow made it to Week 18.
To celebrate the final full 1 p.m. ET slate of the season, I have scoured Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's projections on Action Labs and found two bets that stand out given the matchup and numbers.
We're fading one receiver and betting that one quarterback will be running for his life. Check out my NFL player props for the Week 18 early slate below.
Isaiah McKenzie
Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
McKenzie has gone under this total in three of the Bills’ last four completed games, including each of the last three.
McKenzie only played 36% of snap against the Bears back in Week 16, although that could be because Buffalo ran the ball right down Chicago’s throat to the tune of 254 rushing yards.
In the three games before that blowout in Chicago, McKenzie saw five targets in each. He still went under this total in two of those games.
Since Week 3, McKenzie has 29 catches and is averaging 9.38 yards per reception. That means even if McKenzie gets those same five targets and hauls in three passes, there’s a good chance he still goes under this yardage total.
Koerner and Raybon show a huge edge on this prop, with McKenzie projected for 17.1 receiving yards.
Pick: Isaiah McKenzie Under 30.5 Receiving Yards |
What is QuickSlip?
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Deshaun Watson
Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
Watson has only gone over this total one time in five games this season, but this is going to be an especially tough test for him.
The Steelers are a different team with T.J. Watt on the field. Weighted DVOA, which puts more value into a team’s recent play, ranks the Steelers defense ninth.
Pittsburgh’s defense is hitting its stride at the perfect time. It hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in each of its last six games, of which they have won five.
Pittsburgh is allowing an average of 15.9 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, but not all of them can move like Watson. Koerner and Raybon’s consensus projection pegs him at 24 rushing yards in this game, during which he may be running for his life with Watt chasing him.
Pick: Deshaun Watson Over 18.5 Rushing Yards |
