NFL Week 2 has arrived, and with that, I have NFL player props to target for the second NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 2, which include picks for Isaiah Likely, Malik Willis and more. Keep tabs on this story as I will continue to add more NFL Week 2 player props.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props
- TE Isaiah Likely Under 3.5 Receptions (-114; FanDuel)
- QB Malik Willis Under 169.5 Passing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- WR Elijah Moore Over 2.5 Receptions (-105; DraftKings)
- TE Juwan Johnson Under 2.5 Receptions (-130; bet365)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.5 Receptions (-120; BetMGM)
- WR Ja'Lynn Polk Over 1.5 Receptions (-132; FanDuel)
- WR Joshua Palmer Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115; DraftKings)
Raiders vs. Ravens Player Props: Don't Expect Encore From Isaiah Likely
Likely erupted for a 9/111/1 receiving line on opening night against the Chiefs. The most impressive part was the fact he did it despite fellow TE Mark Andrews playing the entire game.
I’ve said for the past couple of years that Likely is the best “backup” TE in the league, so I wasn’t too surprised to see him go off in Week 1 considering the Ravens were planning on using more 2TE sets with him this year.
However, I think there’s a decent chance he comes back down to Earth a bit this week.
The Ravens were in a pass-heavy (trailing) game script last week. They are much more likely to play with the lead against the Raiders and lean on Derrick Henry.
The Chiefs were double teaming Andrews for most of the game, which was leaving Likely wide open at times. Andrews should draw more targets against Las Vegas at the expense of Likely; Zay Flowers will also command a high target share and I also expect Rashod Bateman to see more targets going forward.
I don’t really want to fade Likely’s yardage prop because he can easily clear it with a few catches. I’m projecting him closer to 3.2 receptions and a 60% chance to stay under 3.5.
Colts vs. Packers Player Props: How To Bet Malik Willis
The Packers will likely be without Jordan Love (questionable) this week due to an MCL sprain. Backup Malik Willis is expected to draw the start despite only joining the Packers a couple of weeks ago.
Willis likely doesn’t have a good handle on the Packers’ scheme/playbook quite yet – as a result, they will have to significantly alter their gameplan.
The former Titan failed to clear 100 passing yards in each of his three starts in his rookie season back in 2022. I’m expecting the Packers to have a run-heavy game plan with Willis under center, leaning on Josh Jacobs as much as possible here and designed run plays with Willis. Even when Willis drops back to pass, he’s going to be a threat to pull the ball down and use his legs.
There are two potential game scripts he will face this week and I think both only help his under:
- The first is the ideal one for the Packers: They play a close game, or even play with the lead, and lean on the run game, which limits how much Willis drops back to pass.
- The second is a trailing game script where Green Bay has to drop back to pass more. I think in this scenario we could see the Packers consider turning to QB Sean Clifford, who has been splitting first-team reps with Willis this week. Because of this, Willis has a very low floor.
Jayden Reed is the Packers’ most dangerous runner after the catch and he’s questionable with calf/shin injury
The Colts will likely have a pretty conservative (run-heavy) game plan that could limit the overall play volume for Green Bay.
This is a tricky prop to project, but I think this prop should be closer to 150 passing yards due to Willis’ low floor. This has around a 60% chance to stay under the projected 169.5 passing yards.
Browns vs. Jaguars Player Props: Buy Low on Elijah Moore
In Week 1, Moore ran a route on 93% of Deshaun Watson’s dropbacks and was the team’s main slot WR (not Jerry Jeudy), registering 64% of his routes from the slot. The end result was three receptions on six targets for nine yards.
Moore was unlucky to only catch half of his targets considering his average depth of target (aDOT) was 3.8 yards downfield. I expect him to catch around 70-75% of his targets at that depth, even from a washed QB like Watson.
With David Njoku (ankle) sidelined for Week 2, I could see Moore getting more targets – the Browns will probably be forced to run a ton of 11 personnel as well.
Moore has been one of Watson’s favorite targets since he joined the team last year. He has seen 6+ targets from Watson in five of the six games they’ve played together. I’m projecting Moore closer to 3.2 receptions with around a 62% chance he clears 2.5.
Saints vs. Cowboys Player Prop: Fading Juwan Johnson
Foster Moreau operated as the Saints’ lead TE in Week 1, running a route on 50% of dropbacks compared to Johnson’s 46%. I’m guessing part of that was due to the blowout game script and the fact Johnson missed quite a bit of camp following foot surgery.
I’m expecting Johnson to see his route participation jump up closer to the 55% range this week but still show value on his under 2.5 receptions.
Chris Olave is coming off a game where he saw just two targets and will surely see a higher target rate moving forward. Also, this could be a potential trailing game script against the Cowboys, and that’s where Alvin Kamara tends to see even more check-down targets.
Johnson saw a +16.8% catch rate over expected last week and will see a much lower catch rate if he continues to see targets downfield (he had an aDot of 15.2 in Week 1).
I’m projecting him for closer to 2.1 receptions with a 65% chance to stay under 2.5.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Player Props: Ja'Lynn Polk Will Have Bigger Rolle
Polk had a quiet NFL debut with just one catch for six yards. The Patriots used a pretty heavy WR rotation that led to Polk running a route on 62% of Jacoby Brissett’s dropbacks
I would expect that rate will only go up moving forward since Polk is the most promising player in what is a rebuilding wide receivers room for the Patriots.
Polk only drew one target despite having the highest separation score, according to Fantasy Points, so I would expect his target rate to be much higher going forward.
I’m projecting him for closer to 2.3 receptions and a 65% chance to clear 1.5.
49ers vs. Vikings Player Props: Fade Brandon Aiyuk Again
Aiyuk was limited to just 60% of snaps in Week 1 and admitted he wasn’t feeling quite right after missing most of camp due to holding out.
I’m expecting Aiyuk to play closer to a full-time role this week, but this is another tough matchup for him specifically since the Vikings tend to play zone coverage at a very high rate. The rest of the 49ers offense typically gets a boost from facing zone coverage, while Aiyuk typically thrives against man.
This is another spot where I wouldn’t be comfortable fading Aiyuk’s yardage prop and prefer taking the under on his receptions.
I’m projecting him closer to four rec with closer to a 61% chance he stays under 4.5.
Chargers vs. Panthers Player Prop: Joshua Palmer Bet
Palmer led Chargers WRs with a 93% routes run rate, which was expected, but he only hauled in two of four targets for 15 receiving yards.
Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston both played well and drew a 20%+ target rate in Week 1. Tight end Hayden Hurst also appears to be the lead pass-catching TE and should build off his 2/33/0 Chargers debut. I expected Palmer to be the clear No. 1 target in this offense early in the season before seeing targets get spread around a bit more, but that seems to already be the case.
The Chargers will feature a run-heavy offense this season and should be able to lean into that against the Panthers this week. I also expect the Panthers to also lean on the run game this week in order to not put too much on Bryce Young’s plate and in an attempt to keep it close. That could lower the overall play volume of this game.
I’m showing some slight value on Palmer to stay under this due to all of those factors. Also, after missing practice Friday due to an injury, he’s in danger of missing this week’s game.
Palmer could be limited if he does suit up, which makes me like this even more. I’m projecting him closer to 34.5 with a 60% chance to stay under.
