This post will be updated throughout the weekend with more of my NFL player props for Week 1, so be sure to check in periodically for the latest picks.
Khalil Herbert
Under 11.5 Rush Attempts (-120, BetMGM)
The Bears had the lowest pass rate over expected in 2022, but they ranked 22nd in Week 1. The Buccaneers pose a tougher matchup on the ground than the Packers and will be without CB Carlton Davis, which could entice Chicago to throw more than expected.
In the Bears backfield, all three RBs were used fairly evenly in Week 1. That'll make it hard for Herbert to rack up a ton of carries unless/until that changes. That's especially the case since he was the only one of the three, along with Roschon Johnson and D'Onta Foreman, to not get short-yardage or goal-line carries. which is the best way to rack up rush attempts.
It's expected to be close to 90 degrees with high humidity around kickoff in Tampa, which lowers the chances of any one of the three Bears RBs to get a ton of volume, especially when they enter the game in a committee.
I'm projecting this closer to 9.5 and under 11.5 as -170. I would bet this line down to -150.
Mark Andrews
Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel); Under 4.5 Receptions (-113, FanDuel)
Andrews is questionable with a quad injury that sidelined him in Week 1. There is a good chance he could be limited if he does make his season debut against the Bengals. Baltimore may opt to use him more heavily in the red zone if that’s the case.
It’ll be the first time we see Andrews in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme, which didn’t appear to be great for tight ends as Isaiah Likely only had one catch for four yards despite running a route on 77% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks.
The Ravens will be without two key lineman in Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum, which could mean Jackson faces more pressure. Last year, Andrews’ target rate was 27% when Jackson had a clean pocket and 22% when Jackson was under duress. Jackson is more likely to scramble if he’s facing a high pressure rate – that would mean fewer passing attempts.
Andrews has also yet to play alongside Zay Flowers, who is going to command a high target rate, not to mention Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman.
I’m projecting this closer to 41.5 receiving yards and would bet down to under 45.5. I also like Andrews to go under 4.5 receptions.
Joe Burrow
Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-120, DraftKings)
Burrow has stayed un this number in 31 of his 43 career starts (72%). He certainly has the athleticism to run when necessary, but he typically stays in the pocket when dealing with a lower body injury.
Burrow only had one rush for minus-1 yard last week against the Browns, and that was on a kneel down at the end of the first half. He's clearly still limited by a calf injury that held him out for most of training camp, and there's a chance he's still not 100% recovered. That would likely limit his rushing upside.
The Bengals are three-point favorites and seem like a sharp bet to cover when considering all of the Ravens' key injuries on both sides of the ball. That only increases the chances we get a couple more knees in a victory formation for Burrow, which gives us a nice out in case he sneaks past this and has 12 or 13 yards before then.
I'm projecting Burrow's median for 8.5 rushing yards and would bet this down to -155.
David Montgomery
Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-115, BetMGM)
The Lions had the sixth-lowest pass rate over expected in Week 1 and will likely lean on the run again as 4.5-point home favorites.
A lot of people were surprised how much work Montgomery had last week against the Chiefs on early downs compared to rookie first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs, but I wasn't. I think we'll see Gibbs get a lot more of the passing-down work with Montgomery getting the majority of early-down and short-yardage work.
The Seahawks have allowed the most plays per game in two of the last three seasons and allowed the third most in that one other year. The Rams ran a league-high 78 plays last week against Seattle, as well.
Detroit should be able to run a ton of plays, which gives Montgomery a ton of upside in this market.
I'm projecting this closer to 15.5 with a fair price closer to -170. I'd bet the over on 13.5 up to -150.
Kylen Granson
Under 2.5 Receptions (-115, Bet365)
Granson turned in a solid 4/39/0 receiving line last week with a 72% routes run rate, but it was Andrew Ogletree who was the lead tight end before he got knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a concussion.
Ogletree has cleared concussion protocol, which means this could be much more of a 3-way committee at the position.
Granson was a late addition to the injury report on Saturday with a hamstring injury and is questionable. There is a chance that if he suits up, he could be limited, which would only provide more value on the under.
Anthony Richardson is only projected for around 18 completions and will likely spread the ball around. This is why I’m projecting Granson closer to 2.1 receptions and a fair price of -185 on the under of 2.5.
There are a ton of factors going against Granson in this market and I would bet this down to -150.
Brandon Aiyuk
Under 4.5 Receptions (-113, FanDuel)
Coming off a massive 8/129/1 line, it looks like Aiyuk might be Brock Purdy's top receiving target this season. However, this seems like a good time to "fade" him in the receptions market.
Aiyuk caught all eight of his targets with an Average Depth of Target of 14.4. I don't care how good you are, because that's not sustainable.
Aiyuk tends to destroy man coverage and be a mere mortal when facing zone. That trend continued in Week 1, when he went 5/75/2 against the Steelers in man coverage, which was only 16% of coverage snaps. He was 2/38/0 against zone. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all typically see their production increase against zone.
The Rams use zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. It's also a matchup where the overall play volume could be below average, which impacts a stat like receptions since it's fueled by volume.
I'm projecting Aiyuk for 4.1 receptions with a 60% chance to go under 4.5. I'd bet this down to -130.
This is not an indictment of Aiyuk's fantasy value this week. He could still do a ton of damage with four receptions since he sees so many downfield and red-zone targets, making him a WR2 option in fantasy.
