NFL Week 3 has arrived, and with that, I have NFL player props to target for the third NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's dive right into my NFL player props for Week 3, which include picks for George Pickens, Rashid Shaheed and Kyren Williams. Keep tabs on this story as I may continue to add more NFL Week 3 player props.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props Week 3
- WR Rashid Shaheed (Saints) Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-115; DraftKings)
- WR George Pickens (Steelers) Under 3.5 Receptions (-120; DraftKings)
- RB Kyren Williams (Rams) Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- RB Cam Akers (Texans) Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- DE Rashan Gary (Packers) Over 0.25 Sacks (-125; DraftKings)
- TE Cade Otton (Buccaneers) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120; DraftKings)
Eagles vs. Saints Player Props: Back Rashid Shaheed to Torch Philly
This is the perfect market to invest in Shaheed’s upside and I think we are getting quite a bit of value at this number (22.5). He’s easily cleared this mark in both games with catches of 59 and 70 yards.
While he certainly won’t be able to keep up that pace, there are some underlying factors that give him a high floor and ceiling in the longest reception market.
The Saints’ new offense under Klint Kubiak has been excellent as they implement a lot more motion and play action than they have in the past, which should only help open things up. Shaheed has also seen his playing time shoot up this year – last week, he ran a route on 94% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks.
Shaheed has run a deep route on 33% of his total routes this season (per NextGenStats), which is the third-highest in the league. That means we no longer have to hope Carr targets him on a few deep routes like in the past. Shaheed is going to run a ton of them – we just need to connect on one. Shaheed leads the Saints with a 27% first-read rate, which means Carr is looking his way often.
And while he’s certainly not going to maintain a 67% catch rate on passes 20+ yards downfield, the Eagles have struggled on deep balls so far, allowing the fourth-highest yards per attempt 20+ yards downfield.
The Saints have blown out both of their opponents this year, meaning we should see them pass at a higher rate in what should be a closer game script against the Eagles.
I have Shaheed projected closer to 29.5 with around a 61% chance of clearing 22.5.
Chargers vs. Steelers Player Props: Will LA Stifle George Pickens?
This Chargers-Steelers game could be an ugly, low-scoring game, especially if Justin Herbert is ruled out. He could be very limited if he does suit up with a high ankle sprain.
The Chargers will likely have a run-heavy game plan either way – that’s the identity of their offense this year under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
The Steelers currently rank fifth in time of possession, but the Chargers’ run heavy approach will eat into that, and I expect Pittsburgh to have lower play volume in this game.
Steelers QB Justin Fields’ completion prop is just 14.5 (which I’m in line with). It’s a matchup he could struggle with as he has the sixth-lowest success rate when throwing against zone coverage this season. The Chargers have played zone at the second-highest rate.
I'm expecting the Steelers to lean on their run game, and when they do take a shot to Pickens, it’s going to be a lower percentage target downfield. He could easily clear his receiving yards prop with 2-3 catches, so that’s not the market I’m interested in.
I’m projecting Pickens closer to 3.1 receptions with around a 61% chance of staying under 3.5.
49ers vs. Rams Player Props: Kyren Williams' Struggles to Continue
Williams has struggled over the first two weeks, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. Part of the blame can be placed on the Rams’ offensive line as his expected yards per carry has been just 3.5 yards, according to NextGenStats.
He’s struggled to break tackles as his 11% missed tackle rate ranks 52nd out of 57 running backs. It’s hard to see him bouncing back against a 49ers defense that ranks fifth in tackle rate.
Williams has only faced a stacked box on 13% of his rush attempts this season, but with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out, he could see the 49ers stacking the box at a higher rate.
The Rams will likely have to abandon the run in what should be a pass-heavy game script, and the 49ers always do a good job of eating clock and limiting the number of offensive plays of their opponent.
Rams head coach Sean McVay could also decide to get talented rookie Blake Corum more involved, like he did in garbage time last week.
I’m projecting Williams closer to 59.5 rushing yards with around a 60% chance he stays under 67.5.
Texas vs. Vikings Player Props: Poor Matchup for Cam Akers
With Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce both ruled out, the Texans will likely turn to Cam Akers to be their lead back. I expect him to take over most of Joe Mixon’s role, but it’s worth noting that after fumbling in the fourth quarter last week, it was Dare Ogunbowale who handled all RB snaps for the rest of the game.
We should see Ogunbowale and potentially British Brooks or J.J. Taylor mix in as well. Not to mention, the Texans love giving Tank Dell direct rushing attempts — maybe they increase his usage as well in Deebo Samuel/Jayden Reed fashion.
Assuming Akers does see a full workload, this is a brutal matchup. The Vikings are second in DVOA against the run and have made contact with RBs behind the line of scrimmage on 50% of carries this season (per NextGenStats), the second-highest rate in the league.
That doesn’t bode well for Akers, who has averaged 2.3 yards after contact (not too far off his 2.7 career rate), which would rank 41st out of 45 qualified backs.
I think we see the Texans lean on their elite passing game more this week, especially in what could turn into a trailing game script.
I'm project Akers closer to 55.5 yards with a 60% chance of staying under 63.5.
Packers vs. Titans Player Props: Bad News for Will Levis
Gary is off to a bit of a slow start as he’s generated a pressure on 10.6% of his pass rush snaps. However, I expect him to bounce back closer to his 17.4% pressure rate from last season.
One of the reasons for his low pressure rate so far has been due to the fact he faced off against Lane Johnson (Eagles) in Week 1 and then Braden Smith (Colts) in Week 2. Both tackles are excellent pass blockers; Johnson allowed three sacks Smith allowed no sacks in the 2023 season. Considering these matchups, Gary is off to a great start with a 10.6% pressure rate and 1.0 sacks.
This week, Gary gets to face RT Nicholas Petit-Frere, who has allowed a league-high 11 pressures on the season.
I have Gary projected for around five pressures; Will Levis has been sacked on 21.6% of his pressures in his career.
Therefore, I have Gary clearing this prop around 63% of the time.
Broncos vs Buccaneers Player Props: Fade Cade Otton
Otton is off to a slow start and has only caught 1-of-4 targets this season. They have come at an average of just 1.2 yards downfield — his catch rate should certainly be higher — but he hasn’t been on the same page with Baker Mayfield on a couple of them.
Even if he does catch 1-2 more of those targets, he likely wouldn’t have seen many yards after the catch.
Otton tends to have one of the highest usage rates among tight ends when it comes to running routes, but if backup Payne Durham starts cutting into his playing time, it’ll only lower Otton’s floor more.
He also tends to struggle against man coverage as he averages 1.15 yards per route run against zone and just 0.29 yards per route run against man. The Broncos use man coverage at the second-highest rate.
I’m projecting Otton closer to 17.5 yards with around a 63% chance of staying under 22.5. If the line moves and his longest reception prop is still just 12.5, I’m also projecting him staying under that 63% of the time.
